I waenganui i ngā taupatupatu tonu i waenganui i te US me Iran, kei te tūtaki te mekameka tuku konumohe o te ao ki tētahi ohorere kāore i kitea i mua. I whakaputa a JPMorgan i tētahi pūrongo rangahau e whakatūpato ana he mea kiteangā taonga konumohe o te aokua heke iho ki te 1.9 miriona tana mita, he rite ki te iti iho i te iwa rā o te tono kai o te ao. He rerekē rawa tēnei whika ki te tīmatanga o te tau 2021, i te wā i kapi ai ngā taonga i te tata ki te 20 rā o te tono, e whakaatu ana i te tino kikī o te mākete o nāianei. I tēnei wā, kei te tata ki te $3,500 ia tana mita ngā utu konumohe i te London Metal Exchange (LME), engari e matapaetia ana e JPMorgan ka pakaru ngā utu i runga ake i te $4,000 ia tana mita i ngā marama e haere ake nei, ka eke ki te $3,800 ia tana mita i te hauwhā tuarua, me te utu toharite tata ki te $3,500 ia tana mita mō te tau katoa.

E tohu ana te pūrongo rangahau kua hipa te mākete i tētahi "wāhanga hurihuri kāore e taea te hoki," i puta mai i ngā whakaekenga i te mutunga o Poutū-te-rangi ki te whare whakarewa o Al Taweelah i Abu Dhabi me te whare whakarewa o Alba i Bahrain. Kua whakaūtia kua kati rawatia te whare whakarewa o Al Taweelah, nō Emirates Global Aluminium. Nā te kino nui o ngā taputapu matua, e matapaetia ana ka roa te wā whakatikatika ki te 12 marama, ā, mā tēnei whare kotahi anake ka tapahia te neke atu i te 1 miriona tāne mita o te tuku konumohe o te ao i te tau 2026. I taua wā, kotahi anake o ngā raina whakaputa e ono i te whare whakarewa o Alba i Bahrain kei te mahi tonu, me te whakamahinga o te kaha ki te 30%. Hei tāpiri, kei te aromatawaihia tonutia ngā mate whakaputa konumohe i Iran, engari e matapaetia ana ka whānui ake te āputa tuku.

Mā te whakakotahi i ēnei pānga, ka taea e JPMorgan tee matapaetia ana ko te hanga konumohei te Middle East ka heke iho i te 36% i ia tau i te tau 2026, he whakahekenga o te 2.4 miriona tana mita. Ahakoa i te tau 2027, e matapaetia ana ka iti iho te hanga i te rohe i te 950,000 tana mita i ngā taumata i mua i te pakanga. Ko te hinganga nui o te tuku, i runga i te papamuri o te iti o ngā taonga o te ao i mua, ka taea te whakaoho i te aromatawai hanganga o te mākete konumohe. E whakapono ana ngā kaitātari mēnā ka mau tonu, ka piki ake rānei ngā pakanga whenua-tōrangapū, ka piki ake te mōrearea piki mō ngā utu konumohe, ā, ka pāngia ngā ahumahi o raro pērā i te rererangi, te hanga motuka, me te takai e ngā pēhanga utu nui. Kei te āta tirotiro ngā kaipupuri moni i ngā nekehanga e whai ake nei i roto i te āhuatanga o te US-Iran me te mea ka puta he pēhanga i roto i ngā taonga konumohe LME.