Tirohanga Matua: I te marama o Āperira 2026, kua horapa te pakanga ā-ao i te Middle East mai i te rāngai pūngao ki ngā konganuku ahumahi. Kua whakaputa te kaihokohoko matua o te ao, a Mercuria, i tētahi whakatūpato kei te pāngia te mākete konumohe e te ohorere nui rawa atu o te rautau. Nā te aukati i te Moana-a-Toi me te whakaekenga i ngā whare whakarewa, e matapaetia ana ka eke te āputa o te tuku konumohe o te ao ki te 2 miriona tana i te tau 2026, he nui atu i te kaha pupuri taonga o te ao o te 3 miriona tana. Kua pakaru ngā utu konumohe LME i te $3600/tana, ā, kua eke ki te taumata teitei rawa atu i roto i ngā tau e whā. Kei te aro atu ngā mekameka ahumahi motuka me te rererangi o Ūropi me Amerika ki ngā mōrearea nui o te korenga o ngā rauemi mata.

Te āhua o te raruraru: te ohorere nui rawa atu o tēnei rautau

1. Te pakarutanga mai o te Takahanga Manu Pango

I kī a Nick Snowdon, te Kaitātari Matua o te Kamupene Whakarewa i Mercuria, nā te pakanga ki te Rawhiti o Waenganui i whakaneke te mekameka tuku taonga i puta aimākete konumohemai i te taurite iti ki te korenga nui. I kī tika ia koinei te ohorere nui rawa atu o te tuku ki te mākete whakarewa turanga mai i te tau 2000, ā, ko tōna rahinga he nui atu i ngā tumanakohanga a te mākete.

2. Te ōwehenga o te kaha whakaputa me te tatau i te āputa

Taumaha o te kaha: Ko te kaha whakarewa konumohe ā-tau i te Middle East e tata ana ki te 7 miriona tana, e 9% o te tuku o te ao. Ehara i te mea he rohe whakaputa anake tēnei rohe, engari he pokapū kawe taonga hoki e hono ana i a Ūropi me Āhia.

Rahi o te āputa: E ai ki a Mercuria, ka pāngia te mākete e te āputa o te tuku o te 2 miriona tana pea mai i nāianei tae noa ki te mutunga o te tau. He matapae pumau tēnei, mena ka taea te whakapai ake i ngā mahi kawe i te Moana-a-Toi i te wā poto. Mena ka mau tonu te aukati, ka whānui haere te āputa.

Te tikanga pānga: te 'pakaru rua' o te mekameka tuku

1. Te aukati ā-tinana: mai i ngā rauemi mata ki ngā hua kua oti

Ehara i te mea ka aukati noa te pakanga i te kaweake o te hinu me te hau, engari ka tapahia tika hoki te hononga ora o te mekameka ahumahi konumohe:

I te taha o ngā rauemi mata, kua tino heke te rere o te kawe i te alumina (he rauemi mata matua mō te whakarewa konumohe) mā te Moana-a-Toi, ā, kua pāngia ngā kamupene whakarewa o te Rawhiti o Waenganui e whakawhirinaki ana ki ngā rauemi mata kawemai e te "kore raihi".

Te mutunga o te putanga: Kua whakaitihia te whakaputanga e ngā kamupene whakarewa matua pērā i a Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA) me Bahrain Aluminum, ā, kua mutu ā rātou mahi nā ngā whakaekenga, nā te motuhanga hiko rānei, ā, kua heke tere te whakaputanga ā-tinana.

2. Kei te tata te paunga o te papa pupuri taonga

Ko te nui o te konumohe puta noa i te ao e tata ana ki te 1.5 miriona tana, ā, ko te nui o te konumohe katoa (tae atu ki te mea huna) he paku noa iho te teitei ake i te 3 miriona tana. Ko te iti o te 2 miriona tana te tikanga ka tere te pau o te papa pupuri taonga. E whakatūpato ana a JPMorgan kua taka te umanga konumohe ki roto i te 'pōha pango', ā, ahakoa ka tutuki he whakaaetanga hohou rongo, ka roa pea ētahi marama ka hoki anō te kaipuke ki ngā taumata noa, ka uaua ai te whakakī i te āputa i waenga i te tuku me te tono i roto i te wā poto.

Pānga ā-rohe: Ko Ūropi, Amerika, Hapani, me Kōrea ki te Tonga ngā tuatahi ka pāngia e te taumahatanga

1. Te tino whakawhirinaki ki ngā kawemai

Ūropi: I te tau kua hipa, tata ki te 1.2 miriona tana o te konumohe me ngā koranu tuatahi i kawemaihia mai i te Middle East, e 18.5% o ana kawemaitanga katoa.

Te Hononga o Amerika: Tata ki te 22% o te 3.4 miriona tana o te konumohe i kawemai i te tau kua hipa i ahu mai i te Middle East. E ai ki ngā raraunga mai i te rōpū tautoko motuka o Amerika, tata ki te 70% o ngā kawemai konumohe a ngā kaihanga motuka ā-rohe e whakawhirinaki ana ki ngā puna o te Middle East.

Āhia ki te Rawhiti: He nui te whakawhirinaki o Hapani, Kōrea ki te Tonga, me ngā whenua o Āhia ki te Tonga-mā-rāwhiti ki te konumohe tuatahi o te Waenganui Rawhiti, ā, e whakatūpato ana ngā kaitātari ā-ao o S&P ko Hapani te whenua e tino pāngia ana e te korenga o te konumohe.

2. Te tuku utu me te pānga o te utu

Mai i te pikinga ake o te pakanga i te mutunga o Pēpuere, kua piki ake ngā utu konumohe mā te 13%. I eke ngā utu konumohe LME ki te taumata teitei i roto i ngā tau e whā, arā, $3672 ia tana i te 16 o Paenga-whāwhā. Mō ngā ahumahi motuka (ngā wāhanga mīhini, tinana), rererangi (tinana waka), me ngā tākai (kēne), ka pēhia tika ngā hua e te pikinga o te utu o ngā rauemi mata.

Te Tūranga o Haina: Ko te Hiahia ā-Rohe te Mana, Ko te Matapihi Kaweake e Huna Ana

1. He rerekē te tuku me te tono ā-whare

He tino kati te mekameka ahumahi konumohe o Haina, he iti noa te pikinga o te hanga konumohe tuatahi i ia tau i te marama o Poutū-te-rangi, ā, he pikinga nui o te 87% o ngā kawemai alumina (tae atu ki te 340000 tana), e tohu ana kei te pāngia a Haina e ngā ru o waho mā te whakanui ake i ngā kawemai rauemi mata hei whakarite i tana ake tuku.

2. Ngā whai wāhitanga kaweake i ngā mahi whakatau

Ko te whānui haere o te rerekētanga utu i waenga i ngā utu konumohe ā-rohe (konumohe Shanghai) me ngā utu konumohe o tāwāhi (LME), me te korenga o te tuku mai i tāwāhi, ka huaki pea he matapihi whakatau mō ngā kaweake konumohe. E tika ana kia whakahaerehia e ngā umanga tukatuka konumohe ā-rohe he pai te utu ētahi ota whakawhiti ki tāwāhi.

Te tātari mākete me te whakatūpato mōrearea

Te whakatau i te au poto:

Ka mau tonu te āhua o te piki me te heke o ngā utu konumohe. Kua neke te pūtake o te raruraru mai i ngā kare ā-roto ki ngā ngoikoretanga ā-tinana. Mēnā kāore anō kia whakaitihia te mōrearea o te whakatere i te Moana-a-Toi, ka piki tonu te utu mō tāwāhi.

Tauākī mōrearea

Te mōrearea o te pumau o te ao tōrangapū: Mēnā ka pakaru ngā whiriwhiringa a te US me Iran, ā, ka roa te pakanga, ka mutu te tuku alumina, ā, ka mutu te kaha whakaputa o te Middle East, ā, ka piki pea te āputa ki te neke atu i te 3 miriona tana.

Te whakaroa o te tukunga o te mekameka ahumahi: Kei te pau tonu ngā taonga i ngā umanga hanga waka, rererangi, me ētahi atu ahumahi hanga huringa roa, ā, tera pea ka pāngia e te āhuatanga tino kino o "ngā ota engari kāore he rauemi mata" i roto i ngā marama 2-3 e whai ake nei.

Te mōrearea o te wawaotanga kaupapa here: Tērā pea ka whakauruhia e ngā kāwanatanga o Ūropi me Amerika ngā here kaweake konumohe, ngā kaupapa here tuku rahui rautaki rānei, ka whakararuraru i ngā tikanga utu mākete.