Pakati pekusawirirana kuri kuramba kuchienderera mberi pakati peUS neIran, kambani yekupa aruminiyamu pasi rose iri kutarisana nekukatyamadzwa kusati kwamboitika. JPMorgan yakaburitsa mushumo wekutsvagisa ichiyambira kuti zvinoonekwazvigadzirwa zvearuminiyamu zvepasi roseyaderera kusvika pamamiriyoni 1.9 ematani, zvakaenzana nemazuva asingasviki mapfumbamwe ekushandiswa kwepasi rose. Nhamba iyi inomira yakasiyana zvikuru nekutanga kwegore ra2021, apo zvinhu zvakafukidza mazuva angangoita makumi maviri ekushandiswa, zvichiratidza kuomarara kwemusika uripo. Parizvino, mitengo yearuminiyamu paLondon Metal Exchange (LME) iri kutenderera pamadhora zviuru zvitatu nemazana mashanu ($3,500) patani imwe neimwe, asi JPMorgan inotarisira kuti mitengo ichakwira pamusoro pemadhora zviuru zvina ($4,000) patani imwe neimwe mumwedzi iri kuuya, ichisvika pamadhora zviuru zvitatu nemazana masere ($3,800) patani imwe neimwe muchikamu chechipiri chegore, nemutengo wepakati wemadhora zviuru zvitatu nemazana mashanu ($3,500) pagore rose.

Mushumo wekutsvagisa unoratidza kuti musika wapfuura "nzvimbo isingadzokeri shure," yakakonzerwa nekurwiswa kwakaitwa pakupera kwaKurume pamudziyo wekunyungudutsa weAl Taweelah muAbu Dhabi nemudziyo wekunyungudutsa weAlba muBahrain. Mudziyo wekunyungudutsa weAl Taweelah, uri weEmirates Global Aluminium, wakasimbiswa kuti wakavharwa zvachose. Nekuda kwekukuvadzwa kwakanyanya kwemidziyo mikuru, nguva yekugadzirisa inotarisirwa kutora kusvika kumwedzi gumi nemiviri, uye nzvimbo iyi yega ichaderedza matani anopfuura miriyoni imwe ealuminium yepasi rose muna 2026. Panguva iyi, imwe chete pamitsara mitanhatu yekugadzira pamudziyo wekunyungudutsa weAlba muBahrain ichiri kushanda, nekushandiswa kwesimba painenge 30%. Pamusoro pezvo, kurasikirwa kwekugadzirwa kwearuminiyamu muIran kuchiri kuongororwa, asi kunotarisirwa kuwedzera mukaha wekupa.

Kubatanidza migumisiro iyi, JPMorganzvinofanotaura kuti kugadzirwa kwealuminiumKuMiddle East kuchadzikira ne36% gore negore muna 2026, kudzikira kwematani mamiriyoni 2.4. Kunyangwe panosvika 2027, kugadzirwa kwezvigadzirwa munharaunda iyi kuchiri kutarisirwa kunge kwakaderera nematani zviuru mazana mapfumbamwe nemakumi mashanu (950,000 metric tonnes) pane mazinga epamberi pehondo. Kudzikira kukuru kwakadaro, zvichipesana nemitengo yezvinhu zvepasi rose zvaitove zvakaderera kare, kunogona kukonzera kuongororwazve kwemusika wearuminiyamu. Vaongorori vanotenda kuti kana kusawirirana kwezvematongerwo enyika kukaramba kuripo kana kuwedzera, njodzi yemitengo yearuminiyamu ichawedzera zvakanyanya, uye maindasitiri ari pasi penyika akadai sendege, kugadzira mota, uye kurongedza achatarisana nedzvinyiriro huru dzemitengo. Vanoisa mari vari kutarisa zvakanyanya mafambiro anotevera mumamiriro ezvinhu eUS-Iran uye kana kudzvinyirirwa kunogona kuitika mumidziyo yearuminiyamu yeLME.