Imbono ephambili: Ngo-Epreli 2026, ingxabano yezopolitiko kuMbindi Mpuma isasazeke ukusuka kwicandelo lamandla ukuya kwiintsimbi zoshishino. Umrhwebi ophambili kwihlabathi liphela uMercuria ukhuphe isilumkiso sokuba imakethi ye-aluminium ijongene noxinzelelo olukhulu lokubonelela ngempahla kule nkulungwane. Ichatshazelwe kukuvinjwa kweStrait of Hormuz kunye nokuhlaselwa kwabanyibilikisi, kulindeleke ukuba umsantsa wokubonelela nge-aluminium kwihlabathi liphela uza kufikelela kwiitoni ezi-2 zezigidi ngo-2026, udlule kakhulu amandla okugcina impahla yehlabathi malunga neetoni ezi-3 zezigidi. Amaxabiso e-aluminium e-LME adlule kwi-$3600/ton, afikelela kwinqanaba eliphezulu leminyaka emine. Ishishini leemoto kunye neenqwelo moya laseYurophu naseMelika lijongene nemingcipheko enzima yokunqongophala kwezinto eziluhlaza.

Ukuchongwa kwengxaki: eyona nto iphambili yokubonelela ngeenkonzo kule nkulungwane

1. Uqhambuko lwesiganeko seBlack Swan

UNick Snowdon, uMhlalutyi oyiNtloko yeMetal kwi-commodity trader uMercuria, ukhankanye ukuba ukuphazamiseka kwe-supply chain okubangelwe yimfazwe yaseMbindi Mpuma kuye kwatshintsha indlelaimakethi ye-aluminiumukusuka kwibhalansi eqinileyo ukuya kwintswelo enkulu. Utsho ngokucacileyo ukuba le yeyona nto iphambili eyenzekileyo kwimarike yesinyithi esisisiseko ukusukela ngo-2000, kwaye ubukhulu bayo budlula kakhulu ulindelo lwemarike.

2. Ubungakanani bomthamo wemveliso kunye nokubalwa kwesithuba

Ubunzima bomthamo: Umthamo wonyaka wokunyibilikisa i-aluminium kuMbindi Mpuma umalunga neetoni ezisi-7 zezigidi, nto leyo eyenza i-9% yobonelelo lwehlabathi. Lo mmandla awupheleli nje ekubeni yindawo yemveliso, kodwa ukwayindawo yothutho edibanisa iYurophu neAsia.

Ubungakanani bomsantsa: I-Mercuria iqikelela ukuba imakethi iya kujongana nomsantsa wokubonelela ubuncinane weetoni ezi-2 zezigidi ukususela ngoku kude kube sekupheleni konyaka. Olu qikelelo luhlala lunjalo, ukuba nje izinto ezithuthwayo kwiStrait of Hormuz zinokuphucuka kwixesha elifutshane. Ukuba ukuvalwa kuyaqhubeka, umsantsa uya kwanda ngakumbi.

Indlela yokuchaphazela: 'ukuqhekeka kabini' kwekhonkco lokubonelela

1. Ukuphazamiseka ngokomzimba: ukusuka kwizinto eziluhlaza ukuya kwiimveliso ezigqityiweyo

Le ngxabano ayithinteli nje kuphela ukuthunyelwa kweoyile negesi kwamanye amazwe, kodwa ikwanqumla ngokuthe ngqo umgca wobomi bomxokelelwane weshishini le-aluminium:

Kwicala lezinto eziluhlaza, ukuhamba kokuthutha kwe-alumina (izinto eziluhlaza ezibalulekileyo zokunyibilikisa i-aluminiyam) ngeStrait of Hormuz kwehle kakhulu, nto leyo ebangele ukuba abanyibilikisi be-alumina baseMbindi Mpuma abaxhomekeke kwizinto eziluhlaza ezivela kwamanye amazwe bajongane “nokunqongophala kwerayisi”.

Isiphumo: Ii-core smelter ezifana ne-Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) kunye ne-Bahrain Aluminium ziye zanciphisa imveliso kwaye zayeka ukusebenza ngenxa yokuhlaselwa okanye ukungabikho kwamandla, nto leyo ebangele ukwehla okukhulu kwemveliso ebonakalayo.

2. I-buffer yezinto ezisetyenzisiweyo isecicini lokuphelelwa

Uluhlu lwangoku lwezinto ezisetyenzisiweyo ze-aluminium kwihlabathi liphela lumalunga ne-1.5 yezigidi zeetoni, kwaye uluhlu lulonke lwezinto ezisetyenzisiweyo (kuquka nezinto ezifihliweyo) luphezulu kancinci kuneetoni ezi-3 yezigidi. Ukusilela kweetoni ezi-2 yezigidi kuthetha ukuba i-buffer yezinto ezisetyenzisiweyo iya kuphelelwa ngokukhawuleza. I-JPMorgan ilumkisa ukuba ishishini le-aluminium liwele 'kwindawo emnyama', kwaye nokuba kufikelelwe kwisivumelwano soxolo, kuya kuthatha iinyanga ezininzi ukuba ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kubuyele kumanqanaba aqhelekileyo, okwenza kube nzima ukuvala umsantsa wokubonelela-imfuno kwixesha elifutshane.

Impembelelo yengingqi: IYurophu, iMelika, iJapan, kunye neSouth Korea zezona zokuqala ukuthwala umthwalo omkhulu

1. Ukuxhomekeka kakhulu kwizinto ezingeniswayo kwamanye amazwe

EYurophu: Kunyaka ophelileyo, ingenise malunga ne-1.2 yezigidi zeetoni ze-aluminium kunye nee-alloys ezivela kuMbindi Mpuma, ithatha i-18.5% yazo zonke izinto ezithengisiweyo.

I-United States: Phantse i-22% yeetoni ze-aluminium ezizizigidi ezi-3.4 ezithunyelwe kunyaka ophelileyo zivela kuMbindi Mpuma. Ngokwedatha evela kwiqela le-US elilwela iimoto, malunga ne-70% ye-aluminium ethengwe ngabavelisi bezithuthi basekuhlaleni ixhomekeke kwimithombo yaseMbindi Mpuma.

EMpuma Asia: IJapan, eMzantsi Korea, kunye namazwe akuMzantsi-mpuma Asia axhomekeke kakhulu kwi-aluminium ephambili yaseMbindi Mpuma, kwaye abahlalutyi behlabathi be-S&P balumkisa ukuba iJapan lelona lizwe lichaphazeleka kakhulu kukunqongophala.

2. Ukudluliselwa kwamaxabiso kunye nefuthe leendleko

Ukusukela oko kwanda ungquzulwano ekupheleni kukaFebruwari, amaxabiso e-aluminium anyuke malunga ne-13%. Amaxabiso e-aluminium e-LME afikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu leminyaka emine le-$3672 ngetoni nge-16 ka-Epreli. Kwimizi-mveliso yeemoto (iinxalenye zeenjini, umzimba), iinqwelomoya (i-fuselage), kunye nokupakisha (iithini), ukunyuka kwexabiso lezinto ezisetyenzisiweyo kuya kuyinciphisa ngokuthe ngqo inzuzo.

Indima yeTshayina: Imfuno Yasekhaya Iyalawula, Ifestile Yokuthumela Ngaphandle Ifihliwe

1. Ubonelelo lwasekhaya kunye nemfuno zizimele kakhulu

Ishishini le-aluminium laseTshayina livaliwe, ngoko ke ukunyuka okuncinci konyaka kwimveliso ye-aluminium yokuqala ngoMatshi kunye nokunyuka okubonakalayo kwe-87% kwiimveliso ze-alumina ezingeniswayo (kufika kwiitoni ezingama-340000), nto leyo ebonisa ukuba iTshayina ichatshazelwa ngokungathanga ngqo ziingxaki zangaphandle ngokwandisa ukungeniswa kwezinto eziluhlaza ukuqinisekisa ukufumaneka kwayo.

2. Amathuba okuthumela ngaphandle i-arbitrage

Umahluko okhulayo wamaxabiso phakathi kwamaxabiso e-aluminium yasekhaya (i-aluminium yaseShanghai) kunye namaxabiso e-aluminium yaphesheya (i-LME), kunye nokunqongophala kobonelelo lwaphesheya, kunokuvula ithuba lokuthumela ngaphandle i-aluminium. Amashishini okucubungula i-aluminium yasekhaya anezibonelelo zeendleko kulindeleke ukuba enze ezinye ii-odolo zokudlulisela kwamanye amazwe.

Uhlalutyo lwemarike kunye nesilumkiso somngcipheko

Isigwebo sexesha elifutshane:

Amaxabiso e-aluminium aza kugcina ipateni yokuguquguquka okuphezulu kunye notyekelo oluqinileyo. Umqhubi oyintloko utshintshe ukusuka kwiimvakalelo ezinkulu ukuya kwiingxaki zomzimba. Logama nje umngcipheko wokuhamba ngenqanawa kwiStrait of Hormuz ungancitshiswa, iprimiyamu yaphesheya kwezilwandle iya kuqhubeka inyuka.

Ingxelo yomngcipheko

Umngcipheko wokuqhubeka kwezopolitiko: Ukuba iingxoxo zase-US e-Iran ziyaphela kwaye ingxabano ithatha ixesha elide, ukuphazamiseka kokunikezelwa kwe-alumina kuya kukhokelela ekurhoxisweni okusisigxina kwamandla emveliso eMbindi Mpuma, kwaye umsantsa unokwanda uye ngaphezulu kwe-3 yezigidi zeetoni.

Ukuhanjiswa okushiyekileyo kwecandelo lemizi-mveliso: Amashishini okuvelisa iimoto, eenqwelo moya, kunye namanye amashishini okuvelisa izinto ezinde asasebenzisa uluhlu lwezinto ezisetyenzisiweyo, kwaye asenokujongana nemeko enzima "yee-odolo kodwa kungekho zixhobo zokwenza imveliso" kwiinyanga ezi-2-3 ezizayo.

Umngcipheko wokungenelela kwimigaqo-nkqubo: Oorhulumente baseYurophu naseMelika banokuzisa imiqathango yokuthumela ngaphandle i-aluminium okanye imigaqo-nkqubo yokukhulula i-reserve, nto leyo ephazamisa iindlela zokuxabisa iimarike.