Phakathi kwengxwabangxwaba eqhubekayo kwimeko yezopolitiko phakathi kwe-US ne-Iran, uthungelwano lwe-aluminium lwehlabathi lujongene nomothuko ongazange ubonwe ngaphambili. I-JPMorgan ikhuphe ingxelo yophando ilumkisa ukubauluhlu lwezinto ezisetyenzisiweyo ze-aluminium zehlabathiIxabiso lehle laya kwi-1.9 yezigidi zeetoni zeemetrikhi, elilingana neentsuku ezingaphantsi kwezisithoba zemfuno yokusetyenziswa kwihlabathi liphela. Eli nani lichasene kakhulu nokuqala kuka-2021, xa ii-inventri zigubungela malunga neentsuku ezingama-20 zemfuno, nto leyo egxininisa ukuqina okugqithisileyo kwemarike yangoku. Okwangoku, amaxabiso e-aluminium kwiLondon Metal Exchange (LME) ajikeleze i-$3,500 ngetoni nganye, kodwa i-JPMorgan ilindele ukuba amaxabiso anyuke ngaphezulu kwe-$4,000 ngetoni nganye kwiinyanga ezizayo, afikelele kwi-$3,800 ngetoni nganye kwikota yesibini, ngexabiso eliphakathi elijikeleze i-$3,500 ngetoni nganye kunyaka wonke.

Ingxelo yophando ibonisa ukuba imakethi idlule “kwindawo yokutshintsha engenakuguqulwa,” ebangelwe kukuhlaselwa ekupheleni kukaMatshi kwisixhobo sokunyibilikisa i-Al Taweelah e-Abu Dhabi kunye nesixhobo sokunyibilikisa i-Alba e-Bahrain. Isixhobo sokunyibilikisa i-Al Taweelah, esiphethwe yi-Emirates Global Aluminium, siqinisekisiwe ukuba sivalwe ngokupheleleyo. Ngenxa yomonakalo omkhulu kwizixhobo eziphambili, ixesha lokulungisa kulindeleke ukuba lithathe ukuya kuthi ga kwiinyanga ezili-12, kwaye esi sakhiwo sisodwa siza kunciphisa ngaphezulu kwe-1 yezigidi zeetoni ze-aluminium zehlabathi ngo-2026. Okwangoku, ngomnye kuphela kwimigca emithandathu yemveliso kwisixhobo sokunyibilikisa i-Alba e-Bahrain osasebenzayo, kunye nokusetyenziswa komthamo malunga ne-30%. Ukongeza, ilahleko zemveliso ye-aluminium e-Iran zisavavanywa, kodwa kulindeleke ukuba zandise ngakumbi umsantsa wobonelelo.

Ukudibanisa ezi mpembelelo, iJPMorganuqikelelo lokuba imveliso ye-aluminiumkuMbindi Mpuma kuza kwehla ngama-36% unyaka nonyaka ngo-2026, oku kuthetha ukwehla kweetoni ezizizigidi ezi-2.4. Kwanango-2027, imveliso kulo mmandla isalindeleke ukuba ibe ziitoni ezizizigidi ezingama-950,000 ngaphantsi kwamanqanaba angaphambi kwengxabano. Ukuwa okukhulu kangaka kobonelelo, ngokuchasene nemvelaphi yeempahla zehlabathi ebezisele ziphantsi ngokwembali, kunokubangela ukuhlaziywa kwakhona kwesakhiwo semarike ye-aluminium. Abahlalutyi bakholelwa ukuba ukuba iingxabano zezopolitiko ziyaqhubeka okanye zisanda, umngcipheko ophezulu wamaxabiso e-aluminium uya kunyuka ngakumbi, kwaye amashishini asezantsi afana neenqwelo moya, ukwenziwa kweemoto, kunye nokupakisha aya kujongana noxinzelelo olukhulu lokudlula iindleko. Abatyali-mali bajonge ngokusondeleyo amanyathelo alandelayo kwimeko ye-US-Iran kunye nokuba ingaba ukuxinana kunokwenzeka na kwiimpahla ze-aluminium ze-LME.