Ngokweendaba zoshishino kunye neengxelo zeendaba zamanye amazwe, uhlaselo lwamajoni ase-Iran lwakutshanje kwiindawo eziphambili zokuvelisa i-aluminium kuMbindi Mpuma lutyhalela imakethi yehlabathi ye-aluminium ecaleni kwengxaki yokubonelela ngempahla.

Olu hlaselo lubangele umonakalo omkhulu kwizityalo zemveliso zabathengisi ababini abaphambili kulo mmandla - i-Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) kunye ne-Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) e-United Arab Emirates. Zombini iinkampani ziqinisekisile umonakalo kwizakhiwo zazo kwaye zalumkisa eli shishini ukuba lilungiselele uthotho lweempendulo zokunciphisa imveliso ezinokwenzeka kwiiveki ezizayo.

Olu hlaselo lwenzeke ngexesha apho ihlabathi liphelaimakethi ye-aluminiumibuthathaka kakhulu. Ngaphambili, ngenxa yeendleko eziphezulu zamandla kunye nemida eqhubekayo yomthamo kwezinye iindawo eziphambili zemveliso kwihlabathi liphela, njengeYurophu, ii-inventri ze-aluminium zehlabathi bezikwinqanaba eliphantsi kangangeminyaka emininzi, kwaye indawo yokuthengisa i-aluminiyam ye-shocks ngequbuliso sele iphantse yaphela. Abahlalutyi bathi njengesiseko esibalulekileyo semveliso ye-aluminiyam yehlabathi kunye nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, naluphi na uphazamiseko lwemveliso kuMbindi Mpuma luya kwandiswa ngokukhawuleza. Ukuba unikezelo kulo mmandla luyaqhubeka nokuthintelwa ngenxa yokwanda kweengxabano, amaxabiso e-aluminiyam kumazwe ngamazwe anokwenzeka kakhulu ukuba adlule kwiincopho zembali aze afikelele kwiindawo eziphakamileyo ezintsha.

Ukunyuka kwexabiso le-aluminium kuya kuyichaphazela ngokuthe ngqo imboni yemveliso yehlabathi, ingakumbi imboni yeemoto, imboni yeenqwelo-moya, ukupakisha, kunye neyokwakha. La mashishini sele ephantsi koxinzelelo olukhulu ngenxa yeendleko zamandla eziphakamayo, kwaye ukunyuka okukhulu kweendleko zezinto eziluhlaza ngokungathandabuzekiyo kuya kongeza ihlazo ekulimaleni, okunokukhokelela ekubeni ezinye iinkampani zinciphise imveliso okanye ziyeke ukuvelisa, nto leyo ephazamisa ngakumbi uthungelwano lokubonelela ngemveliso kwihlabathi liphela.

'Ii-black swans' ze-geopolitical zihlala zenzeka, kwaye uyilo lokhuseleko lwezixhobo zehlabathi lujongene nohlengahlengiso

Uhlaselo lwakutshanje lwase-Iran kwisityalo se-aluminium aluyongxabano yengingqi eyodwa, kodwa lutyhila ubuthathaka obubulalayo beenkqubo zokubonelela ngeenkonzo kwihlabathi liphela xa kukho imingcipheko enkulu yezopolitiko. Luthumela uphawu olucacileyo kwimarike lokuba kwicandelo lehlabathi lenkqubo yabasebenzi elibeka phambili ukusebenza kakuhle, iindawo zokubonelela ngeenkonzo zezixhobo ezibalulekileyo zinokuba zezona "zithende ze-Achilles" ezisengozini kakhulu kwimidlalo yamandla amakhulu okanye kwiingxabano zengingqi.

Ukugxininisa umngcipheko "wokuxinana ngokwendawo" kwezixhobo. Ummandla weMpuma Ephakathi uphuhlise ishishini elikhulu le-aluminium ye-electrolytic ngokusekelwe kwiingenelo zalo zamandla. Xa kuvela umngcipheko wemfazwe, ukuxinana kweli shishini kutshintsha ngoko nangoko ukusuka kwinzuzo ukuya kumthombo womngcipheko wenkqubo. Oku kunyanzela ishishini lemveliso lehlabathi ukuba liphinde livavanye 'ukuqina kweendawo' kwekhonkco lalo lokubonelela, njengoko ukuthembela kuphela kwimodeli yokubonelela yengingqi kunokuba nzima ukuyigcina.

Ukukhawulezisa ukulungelelaniswa kwakhona "kokhuseleko" kunye "neendleko". Kwiminyaka embalwa edlulileyo, uthotho lwemizi-mveliso lwehlabathi luye lwalandela iindleko eziphantsi kunye nokunikezelwa kwangoko. Nangona kunjalo, ukuqhambuka okuqhubekayo, ukuvalelwa kwemikhumbi, kunye neengxabano zezopolitiko zibonisa ukuba ingqiqo yokusebenza kakuhle ibeka umngcipheko omkhulu. Amashishini kunye namazwe kuya kufuneka anike ingqalelo ephezulu 'kukhuseleko lwekhonkco lokubonelela', okunokuthetha ukwandisa uluhlu lwezinto ezisetyenzisiweyo, ukwahlulahlula imithombo yokuthenga, kunye nokubuyisela amandla emveliso emva, konke oku kuya kuyila ngokutsha imeko-bume yorhwebo lwehlabathi kunye notyalo-mali lwe-aluminium kunye nazo zonke izinyithi eziphambili.

Kwakhona, "iimpawu zemali" kunye "neempawu zezopolitiko" zeempahla zityhileke ngokupheleleyo. Ukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso e-aluminium akusanxulunyaniswanga kuphela neziseko zobonelelo kunye neemfuno, kodwa kukwanxulumene kakhulu nemeko ekuMbindi Mpuma kunye nobudlelwane bamandla amakhulu. Kubavelisi abasezantsi, ukuthintela nje akwanelanga ukuthintela iingozi, kwaye inkqubo yolawulo lomngcipheko ebanzi ngakumbi, kubandakanya uhlalutyo lwe-geopolitical, kufuneka imiselwe.

Ngamafutshane, olu hlaselo lusilumkiso esibukhali.

Oku kubonisa ukuba kwihlabathi elinoxinzelelo olukhulu, ukhuseleko lokubonelela ngezinto ezibalulekileyo lube yinxalenye ephambili yokhuseleko loqoqosho lwesizwe kunye nokukhuphisana kwemizi-mveliso. Zombini iinkampani kunye namazwe kufuneka acwangcise ngobuchule kwaye akhe inkqubo yokhuseleko lwezixhobo ezizinzileyo nezihlukeneyo, kungenjalo aya kuhlala ejongene nemingcipheko efanayo "ye-black swan". Imithetho yomdlalo wemarike ye-aluminium yehlabathi kunye nazo zonke iimarike zezinto ezisisiseko ibhalwa ngokutsha yi-hammer enzima ye-geopolitics.