Uyilo olucwangcisiweyo: indlela ecacileyo ukusuka “kumarhe” ukuya “kwiibhejo ezinzima”

Uyilo lweshishini le-aluminium laseQingshan eIndonesia lwenze umlinganiselo ocacileyo:

1. Amandla okuvelisa akhoyo: I-Huaqing Aluminium Industry, intsebenziswano neHuafeng Group, ekwiQingshan Park yaseMorowali, eIndonesia, inomthamo wokuvelisa weetoni ezingama-500000 ze-aluminium ye-electrolytic kwisigaba sokuqala, esaqala ukusebenza ngo-2024, kwaye isigaba sesibini sikwinqanaba lokunyuka. Ngomhla wesi-7 kuMeyi 2026, i-Qing Shan yafaka isicelo ngokusesikweni sokufaka ii-ingots ze-aluminium ezivela epakini kwi-London Metal Exchange (LME) delivery brand, nto leyo ebonisa ukungena ngokusemthethweni kweemveliso zayo kwinkqubo yokujikeleza kwehlabathi.

2. Uhlaziyo lwamva nje: Ngo-Epreli 2026, iQingshan iceba ukwakha iprojekthi ye-aluminium ye-electrolytic eyi-800000 yeetoni kwiWeida Bay Industrial Park kwiPhondo laseNorth Maluku, eIndonesia, ngotyalo-mali olupheleleyo olumalunga ne-3 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi zaseMelika (ngaphezulu kwe-20 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi) kunye nokuxhasa izityalo zamandla ezizimeleyo. Okwangoku, iXidian Zhongte iphumelele isicelo se-odolo ye-rectifier transformer yesigaba sokuqala, kwaye le projekthi ifikelele kwinqanaba lokulungiselela elibalulekileyo.

3. Isicwangciso sexesha elide: Ukuba kubandakanywa amaqumrhu adibeneyo namaqabane afana neXinfa Group, amandla emveliso acwangcisiweyo eQingshan e-Indonesia angaphezulu kweetoni ezizigidi ezi-2.6, ngenjongo yokwenza i-Indonesia ibe "yinkunzi yesibini ye-aluminium".

Inkuthazo yeqhinga: Ukugqobhoza imixokelelwane kunye nokuphindaphinda iipatheni

Ingqiqo yeQingshan Cross border Aluminium Industry ayikokwahlukahluka nje kuphela, kodwa kukuvela kwe-triple resonance esekelwe kwizibonelelo, imiqathango yomgaqo-nkqubo, kunye neemodeli zoshishino.

1. Ukugqitha “isilingi” sasekhaya kunye nemida yamandla: Umthamo wokuvelisa i-aluminium ye-electrolytic yasekhaya ulinganiselwe ngokukodwa kumgca obomvu weetoni ezingama-45 ezigidi, kwaye umgaqo-nkqubo wolawulo oluphindwe kabini lokusetyenziswa kwamandla uya uqina, nto leyo eyenza kube nzima ukongeza umthamo omtsha wokuvelisa. I-aluminium ye-electrolytic “yingwe yombane”, eneendleko zombane ezingaphezulu kwama-30%. Ixabiso lombane wegridi yasekhaya liphezulu, kodwa iQingshan e-Indonesia inokulawula iindleko ezipheleleyo kwinqanaba elikhuphisanayo ngokusebenzisa umbane osebenza ngamalahle okanye umbane ongabizi kakhulu ovela kwiigridi ezizimeleyo, nto leyo ehambelana nengqiqo yayo “yokuphazamisa ishishini ngexabiso eliphantsi” kwintsimi yesinyithi se-nickel ngelo xesha.

2. Ukuphindaphinda okugqibeleleyo kwe-"Qingshan Model": Impumelelo yeQingshan e-Indonesia ikwimodeli yayo edibeneyo "yokunyibilikisa iipaki zemigodi". Amashishini e-aluminium kunye ne-nickel aneempawu ezifanayo kakhulu zoshishino: izixhobo ezikhoyo (i-Indonesia inezixhobo ezininzi ze-bauxite zehlabathi kunye neemfuno zomgaqo-nkqubo "zokucubungula kwindawo") kunye nemiphumo yepaki (kusetyenziswa iziseko zepaki ze-IMIP kunye ne-IWIP ezikhoyo, izityalo ezintsha ze-aluminium zinokubelana ngamazibuko, izityalo zamandla, kunye neendawo zokuhlala, okunciphisa kakhulu iindleko zotyalo-mali kunye nokusebenza).

3. Ukwakha ubukhosi besinyithi "se-nickel aluminium dual core": ukuthintela iingozi zodwa (ukuguquguquka kwexabiso le-nickel le-LME kuyenza iqaphele iingozi zesinyithi esinye, ukubeka ishishini le-aluminium kunokwenza kube lula ukuguquguquka kokusebenza) kunye nokuhambelana kwamandla amatsha (i-aluminium ifunwa kakhulu kwiindawo ezifana nokukhanya kwezithuthi zamandla amatsha kunye neefreyimu ze-photovoltaic, kwaye iQingshan ineeshishini zebhetri ezifana neRuipu Lanjun. Uyilo lwe-aluminium lunokwenza isiphumo sokusebenzisana kunye nekhonkco elitsha leshishini lamandla).

Impembelelo kwiShishini: Ingaba yi-"Catfish" okanye "Grey Rhinoceros"?

Impembelelo yokungena kweQingshan kwishishini le-aluminium kwimarike yehlabathi ye-aluminium ikwisakhiwo kwaye kufuneka yahlulwe kwimbono yexesha elide nelifutshane.

1. Ngokuphathelele amaxabiso e-aluminium: Uxinzelelo olubi lwexesha elide ludlula impembelelo yexesha elifutshane

Ixesha elifutshane (iminyaka eli-1-2): Impembelelo encinci. Iprojekthi yase-Indonesia ijongene nemingeni efana nokunqongophala kwamandla (ukwakhiwa kwezityalo zamandla ezizimeleyo kuhlala kusemva kwamandla okunyibilikisa) kunye nenkxaso yezothutho, kwaye ukukhutshwa kwemveliso okwenyani kufuna ixesha. Okwangoku, amandla emveliso acwangcisiweyo ikakhulu kukuthatha indawo yokunciphisa kwasekhaya, kungekhona nje kancinci.

Ixesha elide (iminyaka emi-3-5): i-bearish. Umthamo wemveliso oyi-2.6 yezigidi zeetoni + umthamo wexabiso eliphantsi oziswa yiQingshan uya kuphucula kakhulu ukuthamba kobonelelo lwe-aluminium kwihlabathi liphela. Oku kufana nempembelelo yesinyithi se-nickel sase-Indonesia kwimarike yehlabathi ye-nickel kwixesha elidlulileyo, eya kucinezela iziko lexabiso le-aluminium kwihlabathi liphela kwaye icinezele imida yenzuzo yemimandla enexabiso eliphezulu (njengeYurophu neTshayina, ezixhomekeke kancinci kumthamo wemveliso yamandla egridi).

2. Kwindawo yoShishino: Ukuyila ngokutsha iCandelo loNikezelo lweHlabathi

Ukunyuka kwe-Indonesia: Iinkampani zaseTshayina ezifana neQingshan kunye neHongqiao zityala imali eninzi e-Indonesia, nto leyo eqhuba utshintsho lwayo ukusuka “kwilizwe elithumela i-bauxite ngaphandle” ukuya “kwilizwe elivelisa i-aluminium ye-electrolytic”. Kwixesha elizayo, uMzantsi-mpuma we-Asia unokuba sisiseko esibalulekileyo sokubonelela nge-aluminium kwihlabathi liphela, utshintshe indlela ekhoyo ngoku elawulwa yiMbindi Mpuma kunye neTshayina.

Utshintsho kwindlela yorhwebo: Ngokukhululwa kwamandla emveliso yase-Indonesia, amaTshayinaukucubungula i-aluminiumAmashishini anokungenisa ii-ingots ze-aluminium ezingaphezulu okanye amanzi e-aluminium avela e-Indonesia, kwaye ukukhuphisana kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwee-ingot ze-aluminium zasekhaya kuya kuba buthathaka ngenxa yokwahluka kweendleko.

Isilumkiso soMngcipheko: 'Ikrele leDamocles' elingenakuyityeshelwa

Umngcipheko womgaqo-nkqubo: Imigaqo-nkqubo karhulumente wase-Indonesia itshintsha rhoqo (njengoko kwakunjalo ngaphambili kokuvalwa kokuthunyelwa kwe-nickel ore), kwaye kufuneka siqaphele malunga nohlengahlengiso lwayo kwiimveliso ezithunyelwa ngaphandle ze-bauxite okanye imigaqo-nkqubo yokusebenza kwe-smelter.

Uxinzelelo lwe-ESG: Izityalo ezininzi ze-aluminium zase-Indonesia zixhotyiswe ngezityalo zamandla ezisebenzisa amalahle, ezinokujongana neerhafu zekhabhoni okanye imiqathango yemali-mboleko kwimeko yokungathathi cala kwekhabhoni kwihlabathi liphela, nto leyo enyusa iindleko ezingacacanga.

Isishwankathelo

I-Qingshan Cross border Aluminium Industry lukhetho olungenakuphepheka kwiinkampani ezinkulu zezixhobo eziphantsi koxinzelelo lwemigaqo-nkqubo. Igxila kwiimpawu ezimbini eziqhuba "izixhobo kunye namandla" ezifana nemizi-mveliso ye-aluminium kunye ne-nickel, kunye nokudodobala kweendleko e-Indonesia. Kwimizi-mveliso ye-aluminium, oku kuthetha ukuvulwa kwexesha elingabizi kakhulu kunye nokuphakama kwemiqobo yokhuphiswano. Abatyali-zimali kwimizi-mveliso kufuneka baqaphele malunga nokukhululwa kwexesha elizayo kwamandla emveliso angabizi kakhulu aza kucinezela amaxabiso, ngelixa bekwanika ingqalelo kwimpembelelo yokungena kwe-aluminium ingot yase-Indonesia kumahluko amaxabiso engingqi. Eli nyathelo likaQing Shan alikokuvusa inkathazo, kodwa kukunciphisa ukugcinwa kunye noqhankqalazo.