The overall stability of aluminum processing material quotations reveals that the demand for lightweight terminals is still silently boosting the aluminum market, and the resilience of downstream markets is more worthy of attention than market sentiment. On September 16th, the Yangtze River spot data showed that the average price of cast aluminum alloy ingot A356.2 was 24200 yuan/ton, the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 was 24000 yuan/ton, and the average price of cast aluminum alloy ingot A380 was 26100 yuan/ton. The prices of mainstream grades have not loosened; At the same time, the average price of A00 aluminum was reported at 24160 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 20 yuan from the previous trading day. The latest price of aluminum 2611 contract was 24170 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan (update time: 13:41). The linkage between upstream raw aluminum and downstream processed material prices has strengthened, and the transmission of the industrial chain has remained smooth. From the price difference perspective, the price difference between A00 aluminum and ADC12 remains within a reasonable range, and downstream processing profits have not been excessively squeezed, thus maintaining the willingness to operate. Against the backdrop of overall pressure on raw material prices, the ability of aluminum alloy grades to maintain their quoted prices indicates a strong ability to meet end demand. The steady state of the spot market complements the tug of war in the futures market, jointly outlining the current tight balance picture of the aluminum industry chain.

The lightweight logic that supports downstream resilience is the joint efforts of the three main lines of automobiles, photovoltaics, and energy storage. The demand for weight reduction in the body structure and battery pack shell of new energy vehicles continues to drive the consumption of engine castings and high-end aluminum foil; The construction of photovoltaic installations and energy storage facilities has driven the bulk procurement of frames, brackets, and heat dissipation aluminum materials, maintaining a certain level of prosperity for brands such as ADC12 and A356.2 on the consumer end. According to CCMN platform’s report on September 16th, the aluminum inventory in the previous period has been continuously reduced to 348000 tons, forming a tight supply-demand balance between low inventory and downstream rigid demand, providing reverse support from the demand side for aluminum prices, making aluminum still resistant to decline in macro headwinds, and the steady progress of terminal consumption becoming a key variable to hedge against external disturbances. It is worth noting that although the premium of green aluminum compared to A00 has narrowed compared to the previous period, the bargaining weight of low-carbon attributes in export orders has increased, and structural demand is still accumulating. From a regional perspective, the operating rates of processing enterprises in East and South China remain at a neutral high level, and there has been no shortage of orders for aluminum profiles and aluminum sheets with foils.

Overall, the demand for aluminum has not weakened as expected, and the lightweight dividend continues to be released in the automotive, photovoltaic, and energy storage fields, becoming a structural highlight that sets aluminum prices apart from other metals. Compared with copper, zinc and other varieties, the terminal demand for aluminum is less affected by real estate drag, and new energy vehicles and power investment form a more stable foundation. In the future, it is necessary to focus on the rhythm of terminal production scheduling, changes in export orders, and the willingness of downstream processing enterprises to stock up on raw materials. If the demand for lightweight continues, aluminum processing material quotations are expected to remain firm and provide further support for raw aluminum prices; If there is a seasonal decline in terminal orders, we need to be alert to the weakening of the demand side’s pull on aluminum prices. Compared to overseas markets, the continuous increase in low-carbon thresholds for Chinese aluminum materials in Europe and America has forced domestic enterprises to accelerate their layout of green aluminum, which will reshape the cost curve of supply in the long run. The current stable performance of downstream is still the most worthwhile bullish clue to track in the aluminum market.