Maonero Akakosha: Pakazosvika Kubvumbi 2026, gakava rezvematongerwo enyika muMiddle East rapararira kubva muchikamu chesimba kusvika kusimbi dzemaindasitiri. Mutengesi wepamusoro-soro wepasi rose Mercuria akapa yambiro yekuti musika wearuminiyamu uri kusangana nekushaikwa kukuru kwezvigadzirwa muzana rino remakore. Vachikanganiswa nekuvharirwa kweStrait of Hormuz uye kurwiswa kwevagadziri vesimbi, zvinotarisirwa kuti musiyano wepasi rose wezvigadzirwa zvearuminiyamu uchasvika matani mamiriyoni maviri panosvika 2026, zvichipfuura simba repasi rose rekutenga zvinhu zvearuminiyamu rinosvika matani mamiriyoni matatu. Mitengo yearuminiyamu yeLME yakwira kusvika pamadhora mazana matatu nemazana matanhatu patani, ichisvika pakakwirira kwemakore mana. Makambani emotokari nendege ekuEurope neAmerica ari kutarisana nenjodzi huru dzekushomeka kwezvinhu zvekugadzira.

Kutsanangurwa kwedambudziko: kushamisika kukuru kwekupa zvinhu muzana rino remakore

1. Kupararira kweChiitiko cheBlack Swan

Nick Snowdon, Chief Metal Analyst kuMercuria, mutengesi wezvinhu, akataura kuti kukanganiswa kwezvekutengeswa kwezvinhu kwakakonzerwa nehondo yeMiddle East kwakachinja mamiriro ezvinhu.musika wearuminiyamukubva pakushaikwa kwesimbi kusvika pakushaikwa kwayo kukuru. Akataura pachena kuti ichi ndicho chinhu chikuru chakaitika mumusika wesimbi huru kubvira muna 2000, uye kukura kwayo kunopfuura zvakanyanya zvinotarisirwa nemusika.

2. Chikamu chesimba rekugadzira uye kuverenga mukaha

Kurema kwemuchina: Kukwanisa kunyungudutsa aruminiyamu pagore kuMiddle East kunosvika matani angangoita mamiriyoni manomwe, zvichiita 9% yemuchina wepasi rose. Dunhu iri harisi nzvimbo yekugadzira chete, asiwo inzvimbo yekufambisa zvinhu inobatanidza Europe neAsia.

Kukura kwemukana: Mercuria inofungidzira kuti musika uchasangana nemukana wekuwanikwa kwemagetsi wemamiriyoni maviri kubva zvino kusvika pakupera kwegore. Kufungidzira uku kwakarongeka, chero bedzi zvinhu zviri muStrait of Hormuz zvichigona kuvandudzika munguva pfupi. Kana kuvharirwa kukaramba kuripo, mukaha uyu ucharamba uchikura.

Maitiro ekukanganisa: 'kupatsanuka kaviri' kwecheni yekugovera

1. Kukanganiswa kwemuviri: kubva pazvinhu zvakagadzirwa kusvika kuzvigadzirwa zvakapedzwa

Kusawirirana uku hakungokanganisi kutengeswa kwemafuta negasi kunze kwenyika chete, asiwo kunogura zvakananga tambo yehupenyu hweketani yeindasitiri yearuminiyamu:

Kudivi rezvinhu zvakabikwa, kufamba kwealumina (chinhu chakakosha pakunyungudutsa aruminiyamu) kuburikidza neStrait of Hormuz kwaderera zvakanyanya, zvichikonzera kuti vanyungudi vekuMiddle East vanovimba nezvinhu zvakabikwa zvinobva kunze kwenyika vatarisane ne "kushomeka kwemupunga".

Kubuda kwezvinobuda: Michina yekunyungudutsa zvinhu yakaita seEmirates Global Aluminum (EGA) neBahrain Aluminum yakaderedza kugadzirwa kwayo uye yakamisa kushanda kwayo nekuda kwekurwiswa kana kudzimwa kwesimba remagetsi, zvichikonzera kudzikira kwakanyanya kwesimba remagetsi.

2. Chinochengetedza zvinhu zviri mudura chiri pedyo nekupera

Zvinhu zviri muaruminiyamu pasi rose parizvino zvinosvika matani mamiriyoni 1.5, uye zvese zviri muaruminiyamu (kusanganisira zvinhu zvisina kunyorwa) zvakakwirira zvishoma kupfuura matani mamiriyoni matatu. Kushomeka kwematani mamiriyoni maviri kunoreva kuti zvinhu zviri muaruminiyamu zvichapera nekukurumidza. JPMorgan inonyevera kuti indasitiri yearuminiyamu yawira mu "gomba dema", uye kunyangwe chibvumirano cherunyararo chikaitwa, zvinotora mwedzi yakati wandei kuti zvinhu zvinotumirwa zvidzokere padanho rakajairika, zvichiita kuti zviome kuvhara mukaha wezvinodiwa nevanhu munguva pfupi.

Kukanganiswa kwenharaunda: Europe, America, Japan, neSouth Korea ndidzo dzekutanga kutakura mutoro mukuru

1. Kuvimba zvakanyanya nezvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika

Europe: Gore rapera, yakatenga matani angangoita mamiriyoni 1.2 earuminiyamu yekutanga uye alloys kubva kuMiddle East, zvichiita kuti ive 18.5% yezvinhu zvayo zvose zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika.

United States: Inenge 22% yematani mamiriyoni 3.4 earuminiyamu akaunzwa gore rapera aibva kuMiddle East. Sekureva kwedata kubva kuboka reUS rekutsvaga mota, inenge 70% yearuminiyamu inounzwa nevagadziri vemotokari dzemuno inovimba nemidziyo yekuMiddle East.

East Asia: Japan, South Korea, nenyika dzekuSoutheast Asia dzinovimba zvakanyanya neMiddle East primary aluminum, uye vaongorori veS&P pasi rose vanoyambira kuti Japan ndiyo nyika inonyanya kukanganiswa nekushomeka kwemagetsi.

2. Kutapurirana kwemitengo uye kukanganisa kwemitengo

Kubva pakatanga kusawirirana pakupera kwaKukadzi, mitengo yearuminiyamu yakakwira neinenge 13%. Mitengo yearuminiyamu yeLME yakakwira zvakanyanya mumakore mana emadhora mazana matatu nemakumi matanhatu nematanhatu nemakumi manomwe nemaviri patani musi wa16 Kubvumbi. Kune maindasitiri emotokari (zvikamu zveinjini, muviri), ndege (fuselage), uye maindasitiri ekurongedza (makani), kukwira kwemutengo wezvinhu zvakagadzirwa kuchaderedza purofiti zvakananga.

Basa reChina: Kudiwa Kwezvinhu Munyika Kwava Kukuru, Hwindo Rekutumira Zvinhu Kunze Kwenyika Ravanzwa

1. Kuwanikwa kwezvinhu zvemuno nezvinodiwa zvakazvimirira

Cheni yeindasitiri yearuminiyamu yekuChina yakavharwa zvishoma, nekuwedzera kudiki kwegore negore kwekugadzirwa kwearuminiyamu yekutanga munaKurume uye kuwedzera kukuru kwe87% mukutengeswa kwearumina kubva kunze kwenyika (kusvika matani 340000), zvichiratidza kuti China iri kukanganiswa zvisina kunanga nekukanganiswa kwekunze nekuwedzera kwezvinhu zvekugadzira kuti ive nechokwadi chekuti inowanikwa.

2. Mikana yekutumira kunze kwenyika arbitrage

Musiyano uri kukura wemitengo pakati pemitengo yearuminiyamu yemuno (Shanghai aruminiyamu) nemitengo yearuminiyamu yemuno (LME), pamwe chete nekushomeka kwemitengo yearuminiyamu yemuno, zvinogona kuvhura mukana wekutengesa aruminiyamu kunze kwenyika. Makambani ekugadzirisa aruminiyamu emuno ane mukana wemutengo anotarisirwa kutora mamwe maodha ekutumira kunze kwenyika.

Kuongorora musika uye yambiro yenjodzi

Kufunga nezvemafambiro enguva pfupi:

Mitengo yearuminiyamu icharamba iine maitiro ekushanduka-shanduka kwakanyanya uye maitiro akasimba. Chinhu chikuru chachinja kubva pamanzwiro makuru kuenda kukushomeka kwemuviri. Chero bedzi njodzi yekufamba muStrait of Hormuz isingaderedzwe, mari yekunze kwenyika icharamba ichikwira.

Chirevo chenjodzi

Njodzi yekuramba iripo mune zvematongerwo enyika: Kana hurukuro dzeUS Iran dzikaparara uye gakava rikaramba riripo, kukanganiswa kwekugadzirwa kwealumina kuchaita kuti Middle East irege kugadzira zvinhu zvachose, uye musiyano wacho unogona kuwedzera kusvika pamatani anopfuura mamiriyoni matatu.

Kutamiswa kwekutengeserana kwemaindasitiri: Maindasitiri ekugadzira mota, endege, nedzimwe mota dziri kuramba dzichiri kushandisa zvinhu zviri mudura, uye dzinogona kusangana nemamiriro ezvinhu akaomarara e "maodha asi pasina zvinhu zvakagadzirwa" mumwedzi miviri kusvika mitatu inotevera.

Njodzi yekupindira mumitemo: Hurumende dzeEurope neAmerica dzingaisa mitemo yekuburitsa aruminiyamu kunze kwenyika kana kuti mitemo yekuburitsa zvinhu zvakachengetwa, zvichikanganisa nzira dzekutengesa mitengo pamusika.