Umbono Oyinhloko: Ngo-Ephreli 2026, ingxabano yezepolitiki eMpumalanga Ephakathi isisakazeke kusukela emkhakheni wamandla kuya kwezinsimbi zezimboni. Umhwebi ohamba phambili emhlabeni wonke uMercuria ukhiphe isexwayiso sokuthi imakethe ye-aluminium ibhekene nokushaqeka okukhulu kokuhlinzekwa okukodwa kwekhulu leminyaka. Ethintwe ukuvinjelwa kweStrait of Hormuz kanye nokuhlaselwa kwabancibilikisi, kulindeleke ukuthi igebe lokuhlinzekwa kwe-aluminium emhlabeni wonke lifinyelele kumathani ayizigidi ezimbili ngo-2026, lidlula kakhulu umthamo womhlaba wonke we-buffer wamathani angaba yizigidi ezintathu. Amanani e-aluminium e-LME adlule ku-$3600/ton, afinyelela phezulu eminyakeni emine. Izinkampani zezimoto nezindiza zaseYurophu naseMelika zibhekene nezingozi ezinkulu zokushoda kwezinto zokusetshenziswa.

Ukucaciswa kwesimo esibucayi: ukushaqeka okukhulu kakhulu kokunikezwa kwempahla kuleli khulu leminyaka

1. Ukuqubuka Kwesenzakalo Se-Black Swan

UNick Snowdon, uMhlaziyi Omkhulu Wensimbi kumthengisi wezimpahla uMercuria, ukhombe ukuthi ukuphazamiseka kochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla okubangelwe yimpi yaseMpumalanga Ephakathi kushintshe isimo.imakethe ye-aluminiumkusukela ekulinganisweni okuqinile kuya ekushodeni okujulile. Usho ngokusobala ukuthi lokhu kuyisimanga esikhulu kunazo zonke emakethe yensimbi eyisisekelo kusukela ngo-2000, futhi ubukhulu bayo budlula kakhulu okulindelwe emakethe.

2. Isilinganiso samandla okukhiqiza kanye nokubalwa kwegebe

Isisindo somthamo: Umthamo waminyaka yonke wokuncibilikisa i-aluminium eMpumalanga Ephakathi ungamathani angaba yizigidi eziyi-7, okwenza u-9% wokunikezwa komhlaba wonke. Lesi sifunda asiyona nje indawo yokukhiqiza, kodwa futhi siyindawo yokuthutha exhumanisa iYurophu ne-Asia.

Usayizi wegebe: I-Mercuria ilinganisela ukuthi imakethe izobhekana negebe lokunikezwa okungenani amathani ayizigidi ezimbili kusukela manje kuze kube sekupheleni konyaka. Lokhu kulinganiselwa kuyagcinwa, uma nje izinto zokuhamba eStrait of Hormuz zingathuthuka esikhathini esifushane. Uma ukuvinjelwa kuqhubeka, igebe lizokhula kakhulu.

Indlela yomthelela: 'ukuqhekeka okuphindwe kabili' kochungechunge lokuhlinzeka

1. Ukuphazamiseka ngokomzimba: kusukela ezintweni zokusetshenziswa kuya emikhiqizweni eqediwe

Le ngxabano ayigcini nje ngokuvimbela ukuthunyelwa kukawoyela negesi kwamanye amazwe, kodwa futhi inqamula ngqo umugqa wokuphila wochungechunge lwemboni ye-aluminium:

Ngasohlangothini lwezinto zokusetshenziswa, ukuhamba kwe-alumina (izinto zokusetshenziswa ezibalulekile zokuncibilikisa i-aluminium) nge-Strait of Hormuz kwehle kakhulu, okubangele ukuthi abancibilikisi baseMpumalanga Ephakathi abathembele ezintweni zokusetshenziswa ezingenisiwe babhekane "nokuntuleka kwelayisi".

Umphumela wokuphuma: Imishini yokuncibilikisa eyinhloko njenge-Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) kanye ne-Bahrain Aluminium inciphise ukukhiqizwa futhi yamisa ukusebenza ngenxa yokuhlaselwa noma ukuphelelwa amandla, okuholele ekwehleni okukhulu komkhiqizo obonakalayo.

2. I-buffer yempahla iseduze nokuphela

Impahla ethengiswayo emhlabeni wonke ye-aluminium ecacile ingamathani ayizigidi ezingu-1.5, kanti yonke impahla ethengiswayo (kufaka phakathi ethengiswayo) iphakeme kancane kune-3 million tons. Ukuntuleka kwamathani ayizigidi ezimbili kusho ukuthi i-buffer yempahla izophela ngokushesha. I-JPMorgan ixwayisa ngokuthi imboni ye-aluminium iwele 'emgodini omnyama', futhi noma ngabe kufinyelelwa esivumelwaneni sokuthula, kuzothatha izinyanga eziningana ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kubuyele emazingeni ajwayelekile, okwenza kube nzima ukuvala igebe lokutholakala kwempahla esikhathini esifushane.

Umthelela wesifunda: IYurophu, iMelika, iJapan, kanye neNingizimu Korea yizona zokuqala ukuthwala umthwalo omkhulu

1. Ukuthembela kakhulu ekungenisweni kwempahla

IYurophu: Ngonyaka odlule, ingenise cishe amathani ayizigidi ezingu-1.2 e-aluminium eyinhloko kanye nama-alloy avela eMpumalanga Ephakathi, okwenza u-18.5% wengqikithi yayo yonke yokungenisa.

I-United States: Cishe ama-22% wamathani ayizigidi ezingu-3.4 e-aluminium angeniswe ngonyaka odlule avela eMpumalanga Ephakathi. Ngokusho kwedatha evela eqenjini le-US lobbying automotive, cishe ama-70% e-aluminium angeniswe abakhiqizi bezimoto bendawo athembele emithonjeni yaseMpumalanga Ephakathi.

I-East Asia: I-Japan, i-South Korea, kanye namazwe aseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia athembele kakhulu ku-aluminium eyinhloko yaseMpumalanga Ephakathi, kanti abahlaziyi bomhlaba wonke be-S&P baxwayisa ngokuthi i-Japan iyizwe elithinteke kakhulu ukushoda.

2. Ukudluliselwa kwentengo kanye nomthelela wezindleko

Kusukela kwanda ingxabano ekupheleni kukaFebhuwari, amanani e-aluminium akhuphuke cishe ngo-13%. Amanani e-aluminium e-LME afinyelele phezulu eminyakeni emine engu-$3672 ngethani ngomhlaka-16 Ephreli. Ezimbonini zezimoto (izingxenye zenjini, umzimba), izindiza (i-fuselage), kanye nezimboni zokupakisha (amathini), izindleko ezikhulayo zezinto zokusetshenziswa zizonciphisa ngqo inzuzo.

Indima YeShayina: Isidingo Sasekhaya Siyabusa, Ifasitela Lokuthumela Ngaphandle Lifihliwe

1. Ukunikezwa kanye nesidingo sasekhaya kuzimele kakhulu

Uchungechunge lwemboni ye-aluminium yaseShayina luvaliwe, kanye nokwenyuka okuncane konyaka nonyaka ekukhiqizweni kwe-aluminium eyinhloko ngoMashi kanye nokwenyuka okukhulu kwama-87% ekungenisweni kwe-alumina (okufinyelela kumathani angu-340000), okubonisa ukuthi iShayina ithintwe ngokungaqondile ukushaqeka kwangaphandle ngokwandisa ukungeniswa kwezinto zokusetshenziswa ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukutholakala kwayo.

2. Amathuba okuthumela ngaphandle i-arbitrage

Umehluko okhulayo wamanani phakathi kwamanani e-aluminium yasekhaya (i-aluminium yaseShanghai) kanye namanani e-aluminium yaphesheya kwezilwandle (i-LME), kanye nokuntuleka kokutholakala kwamanye amazwe, kungavula ithuba lokuthumela ngaphandle kwe-aluminium. Amabhizinisi okucubungula i-aluminium yasekhaya anezinzuzo zezindleko kulindeleke ukuthi enze amanye ama-oda okudlulisela kwamanye amazwe.

Ukuhlaziywa kwemakethe kanye nesixwayiso sengozi

Ukwahlulela kwesimo sesikhathi esifushane:

Amanani e-aluminium azogcina iphethini yokuguquguquka okuphezulu kanye nokuthambekela okunamandla. Umshayeli oyinhloko usushintshele emizweni emikhulu waya ekushodeni ngokomzimba. Uma nje ingozi yokuhamba eStrait of Hormuz ingancishiswa, iprimiyamu yaphesheya kwezilwandle izoqhubeka nokwenyuka.

Isitatimende sengozi

Ingozi yokuqhubeka kwezepolitiki: Uma izingxoxo zase-US e-Iran ziphela futhi ingxabano iqhubeka isikhathi eside, ukuphazamiseka kokuhlinzekwa kwe-alumina kuzoholela ekuhoxisweni unomphela kwamandla okukhiqiza aseMpumalanga Ephakathi, futhi igebe linganda lifinyelele ngaphezu kwamathani ayizigidi ezintathu.

Ukudluliswa kwe-industrial chain okubambezelekile: Izimboni zokukhiqiza izimoto, zezindiza, kanye nezinye izinto ezikhiqizayo ezinde zisasebenzisa izinto ezigciniwe, futhi zingase zibhekane nesimo esibi kakhulu "soku-oda kodwa zingabi nazo izinto zokusetshenziswa" ezinyangeni ezi-2-3 ezizayo.

Ingozi yokungenelela kwenqubomgomo: Ohulumeni baseYurophu naseMelika bangase bethule imikhawulo yokuthumela ngaphandle kwe-aluminium noma izinqubomgomo zokukhulula izimpahla ezigciniwe ngendlela ehlelekile, okuphazamisa izindlela zamanani emakethe.