Phakathi kokungezwani okuqhubekayo esimweni se-geopolitical se-US-Iran, uchungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwe-aluminium emhlabeni wonke lubhekene nokushaqeka okungakaze kubonwe. I-JPMorgan ikhiphe umbiko wocwaningo oxwayisa ngokuthi okubonakalayoizinqolobane ze-aluminium zomhlaba wonkesehle safinyelela kuma-metric tons ayizigidi ezingu-1.9 kuphela, okulingana nesidingo sokusetshenziswa komhlaba wonke esingaphansi kwezinsuku eziyisishiyagalolunye. Lesi sibalo sihluke kakhulu ekuqaleni kuka-2021, lapho izinqolobane zimboza isidingo sezinsuku ezingaba ngu-20, okugqamisa ukuqina okukhulu kwemakethe yamanje. Njengamanje, amanani e-aluminium ku-London Metal Exchange (LME) azungeze u-$3,500 nge-metric ton, kodwa i-JPMorgan ilindele ukuthi amanani akhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-$4,000 nge-metric ton ezinyangeni ezizayo, afinyelele ku-$3,800 nge-metric ton kwikota yesibili, ngentengo emaphakathi ecishe ibe ngu-$3,500 nge-metric ton unyaka wonke.

Umbiko wocwaningo uveza ukuthi imakethe isidlule “esikhathini sokuguquka esingenakuguqulwa,” okwabangelwa ukuhlaselwa ngasekupheleni kukaMashi emshinini wokuncibilikisa i-Al Taweelah e-Abu Dhabi kanye ne-Alba smelter e-Bahrain. Umshini wokuncibilikisa i-Al Taweelah, ophethwe yi-Emirates Global Aluminium, uqinisekisiwe ukuthi uvalwe ngokuphelele. Ngenxa yomonakalo omkhulu emishinini ebalulekile, isikhathi sokulungisa kulindeleke ukuthi sithathe izinyanga eziyi-12, futhi lesi sikhungo esisodwa sizonciphisa amathani angaphezu kwesigidi esingu-1 okunikezwa kwe-aluminium emhlabeni wonke ngo-2026. Okwamanje, munye kuphela umugqa wokukhiqiza oyisithupha emshinini wokuncibilikisa i-Alba e-Bahrain osasebenza, ukusetshenziswa kwamandla cishe ku-30%. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukulahlekelwa kokukhiqiza i-aluminium e-Iran kusahlolwa, kodwa kulindeleke ukuthi kwandise igebe lokunikezwa.

Ngokuhlanganisa le miphumela, i-JPMorganizibikezelo zokuthi ukukhiqizwa kwe-aluminiumeMpumalanga Ephakathi kuzokwehla ngo-36% unyaka nonyaka ngo-2026, okuwukwehla kwamathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.4. Ngisho nango-2027, ukukhiqizwa esifundeni kusalindeleke ukuthi kube ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-950,000 ngaphansi kwamazinga angaphambi kwengxabano. Ukuwa okukhulu kangaka kokunikezwa, ngokumelene nesizinda sezitolimende zomhlaba wonke ezazivele ziphansi ngokomlando, kungabangela ukuhlolwa kabusha kwesakhiwo semakethe ye-aluminium. Abahlaziyi bakholelwa ukuthi uma izingxabano zezwe ziqhubeka noma zikhula, ingozi ephezulu yamanani e-aluminium izokhula kakhulu, futhi izimboni ezingezansi njengezindiza, ukukhiqizwa kwezimoto, kanye nokupakisha zizobhekana nezingcindezi ezinkulu zokudlula izindleko. Abatshalizimali babheke eduze izinyathelo ezilandelayo esimweni sase-US-Iran nokuthi ngabe kungenzeka yini ukucindezelwa ezitolimendeni ze-aluminium ze-LME.