Ntambama yangomhlaka-26 kuNhlaba, njengoba imakethe yesabelo se-A ishintshashintsha futhi ilungiswa, umkhakha wemboni ye-aluminium wakhuphuka ngokuzumayo, wenza “umkhosi ophikisanayo”. Phakathi kwabo, umholi wemboni i-Aluminium Corporation of China (601600), enenani lemakethe elicishe libe yizigidigidi ezingama-200 zama-yuan, yavalwa ngomkhawulo wansuku zonke, kanti ama-oda angaphezu kuka-500000 avaliwe ngesikhathi esisodwa. Ekupheleni kosuku, ama-oda angu-260000 ayesavaliwe, futhi intshiseko yokuqongelela imali yayiphezulu.

Amasheya ngamanye ngaphakathi komkhakha akhuphuke ngesikhathi esifanayo, ngokuthambekela okubukhali okukhuphukayo. I-Nanshan Aluminium kanye ne-Hongqiao Holdings zibone ukwanda okungaphezu kuka-8%. I-Yunlv Group kanye ne-Tianshan Aluminium Industry zikhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-7%. I-Zhongfu Industrial kanye ne-Shenhuo Shares nazo zikhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-6%. Imakethe yamasheya yaseHong Kong nayo yaqina ngesikhathi esisodwa, lapho i-Nanshan Aluminium International ikhuphuka cishe ngo-15% kanye ne-China Aluminium Industry ikhuphuke cishe ngo-9%. Umkhakha we-aluminium waba umugqa oyinhloko oheha amehlo kakhulu emakethe ngalolo suku.

Ukuqubuka kwamasheya embonini ye-aluminium kulokhu kwabangelwa yizindaba ezisindayo zokuthi iGuinea ihlela ukusebenzisa izilawuli zokuthumela i-bauxite ngoJuni. Njengomkhiqizi omkhulu we-bauxite emhlabeni, iGuinea ihlinzeka nge-bauxite engaphezu kwengxenye yesithathu yomhlaba futhi ingumthombo oyinhloko wokungeniswa kwe-bauxite eShayina (okubangela u-74% wokungeniswa kweShayina). Ngokusho kukaNgqongqoshe Wezimayini waseGuinea, lo mthethonqubo uhlose ukuguqula iphethini yentengo ephansi ye-bauxite ngokulawula inani lokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe. Imakethe ilindele ukuthi inani layo lokuthumela kwamanye amazwe lonyaka lehle lisuka kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-183 ngo-2025 liye kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-150, ukwehla ngo-18%, okubangela ngqo ukulindela kokuqina kokunikezwa kwe-bauxite emhlabeni jikelele. Lapho nje izindaba ziphuma, intengo ye-alumina futures ku-Shanghai Futures Exchange yanda ngaphezu kuka-5% phakathi nosuku, futhi ukulindela ukwanda kwentengo ochungechungeni lwemboni kwanda ngokushesha.

Kuyaphawuleka ukuthi ngenxa yokusabela okukhulu emakethe, izinkampani eziningi ze-aluminium ziphendule ngokushesha futhi zanciphisa umthelela walesi sigameko. I-Nanshan Aluminium Industry ithe amaminerali angeniswa yinkampani avela kakhulu e-Australia, anesilinganiso esiphansi kakhulu samaminerali avela eGuinea, futhi umthelela walo mgomo ulinganiselwe. I-Yunlv Corporation ithe i-bauxite ithengwa kakhulu ngaphakathi ezweni, ngokuthembela okuncane emithonjeni yaphesheya; I-Aluminium Corporation yaseShayina iphendule ngokuthi izinga lokuzimela lenkampani le-bauxite lingu-70%, futhi ukukhiqizwa nokusebenza endaweni yezimayini zaseGuinea kuvamile, ngochungechunge lokunikezela oluzinzile.

Impendulo ezolile yamabhizinisi angokoqobo ihluke kakhulu ekusabeleni okukhulu kwemakethe yezimali. Empeleni, lokhu kuqagela kwezimali akusekelwe eqinisweni lamanje, kodwa emdlalweni wezikhala zesikhathi esizayo zokuhlinzekwa kwezidingo kanye nokulindelwe kwamanani. Uma ukulawulwa kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kweGuinea kuqaliswa, kuzoshintsha ngqo iphethini yokuphakelwa kwe-bauxite yomhlaba wonke, kukhuphule amanani amaminerali kanye nezindleko ze-alumina, bese kudluliselwa ekugcineni kwe-aluminium ye-electrolytic. Izinkampani ze-aluminium ezinamazinga aphezulu okuzinakekela kanye neziteshi zezinsiza ezizinzile zizozuza kakhulu, okuba yingqondo eyinhloko yokuhlelwa kwemali.

Esikhathini esifushane, imininingwane yokusetshenziswa kwenqubomgomo yaseGuinea, isitokwe sezinto zokusetshenziswa kwe-aluminium yasekhaya, kanye nesivinini sokuthunyelwa okulandelayo kuzoba yizinto ezibalulekile ezithinta ukuthambekela komkhakha. Ukuthambekela okunamandla kwemakethe yomkhakha we-aluminium empeleni kuwukuhlolwa kabusha kwenani okuqhutshwa ukulindela ukushoda kwezinsiza, futhi sidinga ukuqaphela ingozi yokuguquguquka ebangelwa ukugcwaliseka okulindelekile kokulindelwe.

Ntambama yangomhlaka-26 kuNhlaba, njengoba imakethe yesabelo se-A ishintshashintsha futhi ilungiswa, umkhakha wemboni ye-aluminium wakhuphuka ngokuzumayo, wenza “umkhosi ophikisanayo”. Phakathi kwabo, umholi wemboni i-Aluminium Corporation of China (601600), enenani lemakethe elicishe libe yizigidigidi ezingama-200 zama-yuan, yavalwa ngomkhawulo wansuku zonke, kanti ama-oda angaphezu kuka-500000 avaliwe ngesikhathi esisodwa. Ekupheleni kosuku, ama-oda angu-260000 ayesavaliwe, futhi intshiseko yokuqongelela imali yayiphezulu.

Amasheya ngamanye ngaphakathi komkhakha akhuphuke ngesikhathi esifanayo, ngokuthambekela okubukhali okukhuphukayo. I-Nanshan Aluminium kanye ne-Hongqiao Holdings zibone ukwanda okungaphezu kuka-8%; i-Yunlv Group kanye ne-Tianshan Aluminium Industry zikhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-7%. I-Zhongfu Industrial kanye ne-Shenhuo Shares nazo zikhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-6%. Imakethe yamasheya yaseHong Kong nayo yaqina ngesikhathi esisodwa, lapho i-Nanshan Aluminium International ikhuphuka cishe ngo-15% kanye ne-China Aluminium Industry ikhuphuka cishe ngo-9%. Umkhakha we-aluminium waba umugqa oyinhloko oheha amehlo kakhulu emakethe ngalolo suku.

Ukuqubuka kwamasheya embonini ye-aluminium kulokhu kwabangelwa yizindaba ezisindayo zokuthi iGuinea ihlela ukusebenzisa izilawuli zokuthumela i-bauxite ngoJuni. Njengomkhiqizi omkhulu we-bauxite emhlabeni, iGuinea ihlinzeka nge-bauxite engaphezu kwengxenye yesithathu yomhlaba futhi ingumthombo oyinhloko wokungeniswa kwe-bauxite eShayina (okubangela u-74% wokungeniswa kweShayina). Ngokusho kukaNgqongqoshe Wezimayini waseGuinea, lo mthethonqubo uhlose ukuguqula iphethini yentengo ephansi ye-bauxite ngokulawula inani lokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe. Imakethe ilindele ukuthi inani layo lokuthumela kwamanye amazwe lonyaka lehle lisuka kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-183 ngo-2025 liye kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-150, ukwehla ngo-18%, okubangela ngqo ukulindela kokuqina kokunikezwa kwe-bauxite emhlabeni jikelele. Lapho nje izindaba ziphuma, intengo ye-alumina futures ku-Shanghai Futures Exchange yanda ngaphezu kuka-5% phakathi nosuku, futhi ukulindela ukwanda kwentengo ochungechungeni lwemboni kwanda ngokushesha.

Kuyaphawuleka ukuthi ngenxa yokusabela okukhulu emakethe, izinkampani eziningi ze-aluminium ziphendule ngokushesha futhi zanciphisa umthelela walesi sigameko. I-Nanshan Aluminium Industry ithe amaminerali angeniswa yinkampani avela kakhulu e-Australia, anesilinganiso esiphansi kakhulu samaminerali avela eGuinea, futhi umthelela walo mgomo ulinganiselwe. I-Yunlv Corporation ithe i-bauxite ithengwa kakhulu ngaphakathi ezweni, ngokuthembela okuncane emithonjeni yaphesheya kwezilwandle. I-Aluminium Corporation yaseShayina iphendule ngokuthi izinga lokuzimela lenkampani le-bauxite lingu-70%, futhi ukukhiqizwa nokusebenza endaweni yezimayini zaseGuinea kuvamile, ngochungechunge lokunikezela oluzinzile.

Impendulo ezolile yamabhizinisi angokoqobo ihluke kakhulu ekusabeleni okukhulu kwemakethe yezimali. Empeleni, lokhu kuqagela kwezimali akusekelwe eqinisweni lamanje, kodwa emdlalweni wezikhala zesidingo sokunikezwa kwesikhathi esizayo kanye nokulindelwe kwamanani. Uma ukulawulwa kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kweGuinea kuqaliswa, kuzoshintsha ngqo iphethini yokuphakelwa kwe-bauxite yomhlaba wonke, kukhuphule amanani amaminerali kanye nezindleko ze-alumina, bese kudluliselwa ekugcineni kwe-aluminium ye-electrolytic.Izinkampani ze-aluminiumngezilinganiso eziphakeme zokuzimela kanye neziteshi zezinsiza ezizinzile kuzozuza kakhulu, okuba yingqondo eyinhloko yokuhlelwa kwemali.

Esikhathini esifushane, imininingwane yokusetshenziswa kwenqubomgomo yaseGuinea, isitokwe sezinto zokusetshenziswa kwe-aluminium yasekhaya, kanye nesivinini sokuthunyelwa okulandelayo kuzoba yizinto ezibalulekile ezithinta ukuthambekela komkhakha. Ukuthambekela okunamandla kwemakethe yomkhakha we-aluminium empeleni kuwukuhlolwa kabusha kwenani okuqhutshwa ukulindela ukushoda kwezinsiza, futhi sidinga ukuqaphela ingozi yokuguquguquka ebangelwa ukugcwaliseka okulindelekile kokulindelwe.