Ngokusho kwezindaba zemboni kanye nemibiko yabezindaba zakwamanye amazwe, ukuhlasela kwamasosha kwakamuva kwe-Iran ezindaweni ezibalulekile zokukhiqiza i-aluminium eMpumalanga Ephakathi kusunduza imakethe ye-aluminium yomhlaba wonke onqenqemeni lwenkinga yokutholakala kwempahla eseduze.

Lokhu kuhlasela kubangele umonakalo omkhulu ezitshalweni zokukhiqiza zabahlinzeki ababili abayinhloko esifundeni - i-Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) kanye ne-Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) e-United Arab Emirates. Zombili izinkampani ziqinisekisile umonakalo ezakhiweni zazo futhi zaxwayisa imboni ukuthi ilungiselele uchungechunge lwezigameko zokunciphisa umkhiqizo ezingase zenzeke emasontweni azayo.

Lokhu kuhlasela kwenzeke ngesikhathi lapho umhlaba wonkeimakethe ye-aluminiumibuthakathaka kakhulu. Ngaphambilini, ngenxa yezindleko zamandla aphezulu kanye nemikhawulo yamandla eqhubekayo kwezinye izindawo ezinkulu zokukhiqiza emhlabeni jikelele, njengeYurophu, izinqolobane ze-aluminium zomhlaba wonke bezisezingeni eliphansi iminyaka eminingi, futhi isikhala semakethe sokuvimbela ukushaqeka okungazelelwe sesicishe siphele. Abahlaziyi bakhomba ukuthi njengesisekelo esibalulekile sokukhiqiza i-aluminium emhlabeni jikelele kanye nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, noma yikuphi ukuphazamiseka kokukhiqiza eMpumalanga Ephakathi kuzokhuliswa ngokushesha. Uma ukuhlinzekwa esifundeni kuqhubeka nokuvinjelwa ngenxa yokwanda kwezingxabano, amanani e-aluminium emhlabeni jikelele kungenzeka kakhulu ukuthi adlule eziqongweni zomlando futhi afinyelele amazinga aphezulu amasha.

Ukwenyuka kwentengo ye-aluminium kuzothinta ngqo imboni yokukhiqiza yomhlaba wonke, ikakhulukazi imboni yezimoto, yezindiza, yokupakisha kanye neyokwakha. Lezi zimboni sezivele zingaphansi kwengcindezi enkulu ngenxa yezindleko zamandla ezikhuphukayo, futhi ukwenyuka okukhulu kwezindleko zezinto zokusetshenziswa ngokungangabazeki kuzokwengeza ukulimala, okungase kuholele ekutheni ezinye izinkampani zinciphise ukukhiqizwa noma ziyeke ukukhiqizwa, okuphazamisa kakhulu uchungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwezimboni emhlabeni jikelele.

'Ama-black swan' e-geopolitical avame ukuvela, futhi ukwakheka kokuphepha kwezinsiza zomhlaba wonke kubhekene nokuhlelwa kabusha

Ukuhlaselwa kwakamuva kwe-Iran esitshalweni se-aluminium akuyona ingxabano yesifunda eyedwa, kodwa kunalokho kuveza ubuthakathaka obubulalayo bezintambo zokuhlinzeka zomhlaba wonke lapho kubhekene nezingozi ezinkulu zezwe. Kuthumela isignali ecacile emakethe yokuthi ekuhlukanisweni komhlaba wonke kohlelo lwabasebenzi olubeka phambili ukusebenza kahle, ama-node ezintambo zokuhlinzeka zezinsizakusebenza ezibalulekile angase abe "isithende sika-Achille" esisengozini kakhulu emidlalweni yamandla amakhulu noma ezingxabanweni zesifunda.

Ukugqamisa ingozi "yokuhlushwa kwemithombo ngokwendawo" kwezinsizakusebenza. Isifunda saseMpumalanga Ephakathi sithuthukise imboni enkulu ye-aluminium ye-electrolytic ngokusekelwe ezinzuzweni zayo zamandla. Lapho kuvela ingozi yempi, ukuhlushwa kwale mboni kushintsha ngokushesha kusuka enzuzweni kuya emthonjeni wengozi ehlelekile. Lokhu kuphoqa imboni yokukhiqiza yomhlaba wonke ukuthi ihlole kabusha 'ukuqina kwezindawo' kweketanga layo lokuhlinzeka, njengoba ukuthembela kuphela kumodeli wokuhlinzeka wesifunda kungaba nzima ukuyisekela.

Ukusheshisa ukulinganiswa kabusha “kokuphepha” kanye “nezindleko”. Emashumini ambalwa eminyaka edlule, uchungechunge lwezimboni lomhlaba wonke luye lwaphishekela izindleko eziphansi kakhulu kanye nokunikezwa okusheshayo. Kodwa-ke, ukuqubuka okuqhubekayo, ukuvinjelwa kwemikhumbi, kanye nezingxabano zezwe kubonisa ukuthi ukucabanga kokusebenza kahle kubeka izingozi ezinkulu. Amabhizinisi namazwe kuzodingeka anikeze kuqala “ukuphepha kochungechunge lokunikezwa”, okungasho ukwandisa isitokwe, ukuhlukanisa imithombo yokuthengwa, kanye nokubuyisela emuva amandla okukhiqiza, konke okuzokwakha kabusha indawo yokuhweba nokutshalwa kwezimali yomhlaba wonke ye-aluminium nazo zonke izinsimbi ezibalulekile.

Nalapha futhi, "izimfanelo zezimali" kanye "nezimfanelo zezepolitiki" zezimpahla sezivezwe ngokuphelele. Ukuguquguquka kwamanani e-aluminium akusahlobene kuphela nezisekelo zokuhlinzeka nesidingo, kodwa futhi kuhlobene kakhulu nesimo eMpumalanga Ephakathi kanye nobudlelwano bamandla amakhulu. Kubakhiqizi abangaphansi, ukuvimba nje akusanele ukuvimba izingozi, futhi uhlelo lokuphatha izingozi oluphelele, okuhlanganisa nokuhlaziywa kwezwe, kumele lusungulwe.

Ngamafuphi, lokhu kuhlasela kuyisixwayiso esibukhali.

Kubonisa ukuthi ezweni elinezinxushunxushu, ukuphepha kokuhlinzekwa kwezinto zokusetshenziswa ezibalulekile sekuyinto ebalulekile ekuphepheni komnotho kazwelonke kanye nokuncintisana kwezimboni. Amabhizinisi kanye namazwe womabili kudingeka ahlele ngendlela efanele futhi akhe uhlelo lokuphepha kwezinsiza oluqinile noluhlukahlukene, ngaphandle kwalokho azohlala evezwa ezingozini ezifanayo "ze-black swan". Imithetho yokudlala yemakethe ye-aluminium yomhlaba wonke kanye nazo zonke izimakethe zezinto zokusetshenziswa eziyisisekelo ibhalwa kabusha yi-hammer enzima ye-geopolitics.