Ukuhlelwa kwamasu: indlela ecacile esuka “kumahemuhemu” iye “ekubhejeni okunzima”

Ukwakheka kwemboni ye-aluminium yaseQingshan e-Indonesia kuye kwakha isigaba esicacile:

1. Umthamo wokukhiqiza okhona: I-Huaqing Aluminium Industry, inkampani ehlangene ne-Huafeng Group, etholakala eQingshan Park eMorowali, e-Indonesia, inamandla okukhiqiza amathani angu-500000 e-aluminium ye-electrolytic esigabeni sokuqala, esaqala ukusebenza ngo-2024, kanti isigaba sesibili sisesigabeni sokukhuphuka. Ngomhlaka-7 Meyi 2026, i-Qing Shan yafaka isicelo ngokusemthethweni sokufaka ama-ingot e-aluminium avela epaki kumkhiqizo wokulethwa we-London Metal Exchange (LME), okuphawula ukungena okusemthethweni kwemikhiqizo yayo ohlelweni lokujikeleza komhlaba wonke.

2. Isibuyekezo sakamuva: Ngo-Ephreli 2026, iQingshan ihlela ukwakha iphrojekthi ye-aluminium ye-electrolytic engamathani angu-800000 eWeida Bay Industrial Park eNorth Maluku Province, e-Indonesia, ngokutshalwa kwezimali okuphelele okungaba yizigidigidi ezintathu zamaRandi aseMelika (ngaphezu kwezigidigidi ezingama-20 zamaRandi) nokusekela izikhungo zamandla ezizimele. Njengamanje, iXidian Zhongte iwine ibhidi le-oda le-rectifier transformer yesigaba sokuqala, futhi iphrojekthi isingene esigabeni sokulungiselela okukhulu.

3. Uhlelo lwesikhathi eside: Uma kufakwa ama-joint venture nabalingani abanjengoXinfa Group, amandla okukhiqiza ahleliwe e-Qingshan e-Indonesia adlula amathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.6, ngenhloso yokwenza i-Indonesia ibe “inhloko-dolobha yesibili ye-aluminium”.

Isisusa samasu: Ukugqashula ezibophweni nokuphindaphinda amaphethini

Umqondo we-Qingshan Cross border Aluminium Industry awukona nje ukuhlukahluka, kodwa ukuvela kathathu okusekelwe ekunikezelweni kwezinsiza, imikhawulo yenqubomgomo, kanye namamodeli ebhizinisi.

1. Ukudlula “ophahleni” lwasekhaya kanye nemikhawulo yamandla: Umthamo wokukhiqiza i-aluminium kagesi yasekhaya unqunyelwe kuphela emgqeni obomvu wamathani ayizigidi ezingu-45, futhi inqubomgomo yokulawula ukusetshenziswa kwamandla kabili iya ngokuya iba nzima, okwenza kube nzima ukwengeza umthamo omusha wokukhiqiza. I-aluminium kagesi “iyingwe kagesi”, enezindleko zikagesi ezingaphezu kuka-30%. Izindleko zikagesi wegridi yasekhaya ziphakeme, kodwa i-Qingshan e-Indonesia ingalawula izindleko ezigcwele ezingeni lokuncintisana kakhulu ngokusebenzisa amandla okusebenzisa amalahle noma ugesi oshibhile ovela kumagridi ahlukanisiwe, okuhambisana nomqondo wayo “wokuphazamisa imboni ngezindleko eziphansi” ensimini yensimbi ye-nickel ngaleso sikhathi.

2. Ukukopishwa okuphelele kwe-“Qingshan Model”: Impumelelo ye-Qingshan e-Indonesia itholakala kumodeli yayo ehlanganisiwe “yokuncibilikisa amapaki ezimayini”. Izimboni ze-aluminium ne-nickel zinezimfanelo zezimboni ezifanayo kakhulu: izinsiza ezisesandleni (i-Indonesia inezinsiza eziningi ze-bauxite zomhlaba wonke kanye nezidingo zenqubomgomo “zokucubungula endaweni”) kanye nemiphumela yepaki (kusetshenziswa ingqalasizinda yepaki ye-IMIP ne-IWIP ekhona, izitshalo ezintsha ze-aluminium zingabelana ngamachweba, izitshalo zamandla, kanye nezindawo zokuhlala, kunciphisa kakhulu izindleko zokutshalwa kwezimali kanye nokusebenza).

3. Ukwakha umbuso wensimbi "we-nickel aluminium dual core": ukuvikela izingozi zodwa (ukuguquguquka kwentengo ye-nickel ye-LME kuyenza iqaphele izingozi zensimbi eyodwa, ukubeka imboni ye-aluminium kungenza kube lula ukushintshashintsha kokusebenza) kanye nokusebenzisana kwamandla amasha (i-aluminium inesidingo esikhulu ezindaweni ezifana nokukhanyisa izimoto ezintsha zamandla kanye nozimele be-photovoltaic, kanti i-Qingshan inezinkampani zamabhethri ezifana ne-Ruipu Lanjun. Ukuhlelwa kwe-aluminium kungakha umphumela wokusebenzisana nochungechunge olusha lwemboni yamandla).

Umthelela Wemboni: Ingabe “i-Catfish” noma “i-Grey Rhinoceros”?

Umthelela wokungena kweQingshan embonini ye-aluminium emakethe ye-aluminium yomhlaba wonke ungowesakhiwo futhi udinga ukuhlukaniswa nombono wesikhathi eside nowesikhathi esifushane.

1. Ngokuphathelene namanani e-aluminium: Ingcindezi engemihle yesikhathi eside idlula umthelela wesikhashana

Isikhathi esifushane (iminyaka eyi-1-2): Umthelela olinganiselwe. Iphrojekthi yase-Indonesia ibhekene nezinselele ezifana nokuvinjelwa kukagesi (ukwakhiwa kwezitshalo zamandla ezizimele kuvame ukuba semva kwamandla okuncibilikisa) kanye nokusekelwa kwempahla, futhi ukukhishwa kwangempela komkhiqizo kudinga isikhathi. Futhi njengamanje, amandla okukhiqiza ahleliwe ikakhulukazi athatha indawo yokunciphisa kwasekhaya, hhayi nje kancane kancane.

Isikhathi eside (iminyaka emi-3-5): i-bearish. Amandla okukhiqiza angamathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.6+amanani aphansi alethwe yi-Qingshan azothuthukisa kakhulu ukunwebeka kokunikezwa kwe-aluminium emhlabeni jikelele. Lokhu kufana nomthelela wensimbi ye-nickel yase-Indonesia emakethe ye-nickel yomhlaba wonke esikhathini esidlule, okuzocindezela isikhungo sentengo ye-aluminium yomhlaba wonke futhi kunciphise izinzuzo zezifunda ezibiza kakhulu (njengeYurophu neShayina, ezithembele kancane emandleni okukhiqiza amandla egridi).

2. Ngokwesimo Semboni: Ukwakha Kabusha Uchungechunge Lokunikezela Lomhlaba Wonke

Ukudlondlobala kwe-Indonesia: Izinkampani zaseShayina ezifana neQingshan neHongqiao zitshala imali eningi e-Indonesia, ziqhuba ushintsho lwayo kusukela “ezweni elithumela i-bauxite kwamanye amazwe” kuya “ezweni elikhiqiza i-aluminium nge-electrolytic”. Esikhathini esizayo, iNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia ingase ibe yisisekelo esibalulekile somhlaba wonke sokuhlinzekwa kwe-aluminium, ishintshe iphethini yamanje ephethwe yiMpumalanga Ephakathi kanye neShayina.

Izinguquko ekuhambeni kokuhweba: Ngokukhululwa kwamandla okukhiqiza ase-Indonesia, amaShayinaukucutshungulwa kwe-aluminiumAmabhizinisi angangenisa ama-ingot e-aluminium amaningi noma amanzi e-aluminium avela e-Indonesia, futhi ukuncintisana kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwama-ingot e-aluminium ekhaya kuzoncipha ngenxa yokwehluka kwezindleko.

Isexwayiso Sengozi: 'Inkemba YamaDamocles' engenakunakwa

Ingozi yenqubomgomo: Izinqubomgomo zikahulumeni wase-Indonesia zishintsha njalo (njengokuvinjelwa kwangaphambilini kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwe-nickel ore), futhi sidinga ukuqaphela izinguquko zayo ekuthunyelweni kwe-bauxite noma izinqubomgomo zokusebenza kwe-smelter.

Ingcindezi ye-ESG: Izitshalo eziningi ze-aluminium zase-Indonesia zihlonyiswe ngezitshalo zamandla ezizimele ezisebenzisa amalahle, ezingase zibhekane nezindleko zekhabhoni noma imikhawulo yezimali ngokwesimo sokungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni emhlabeni jikelele, okwandisa izindleko ezingacacile.

Isifinyezo

I-Qingshan Cross border Aluminium Industry iyindlela engenakugwenywa yezinkampani ezinkulu zezinsizakusebenza ezivinjezelwe yinqubomgomo. Igxila ezimfanelweni ezimbili ezishayela “izinsizakusebenza namandla” ezifana nezimboni ze-aluminium kanye ne-nickel, kanye nokwehla kwezindleko e-Indonesia. Embonini ye-aluminium, lokhu kusho ukuvulwa kwenkathi engabizi kakhulu kanye nokuphakama kwezithiyo zokuncintisana. Abatshalizimali bezimboni kudingeka baqaphele ngokukhishwa kwesikhathi esizayo kwamandla okukhiqiza angabizi kakhulu azonciphisa amanani, ngenkathi futhi benaka umthelela wokungena kwe-aluminium ingot yase-Indonesia ekwehlukeni kwamanani esifunda. Lesi sinyathelo se-Qing Shan asikona ukuvusa inkathazo, kodwa ukunciphisa ukulungiswa kanye nokuteleka.