Latest statistics from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reveal a significant supply demand imbalance in the global primary aluminum market during the first 11 months of 2025, with a cumulative deficit of 1.5276 million tonnes. This structural gap underscores the industry’s tightening fundamentals, sending crucial signals to downstream sectors including aluminum plate, bar, tube manufacturing and precision machining.

According to the report, global primary aluminum output reached 6.67204 million tonnes in the Jan to Nov period, while consumption surged to 6.8248 million tonnes. The contrasting monthly performance in November, with production of 6.0226 million tonnes outpacing consumption of 5.8176 million tonnes, resulting in a 204,900 tonne surplus highlighted short-term fluctuations amid long-term tightness.

Upstream segments showed steady output momentum. Global bauxite production totaled 390.0838 million tonnes in the first 11 months, with November contributing 35.3332 million tonnes. Alumina output reached 139.8518 million tonnes cumulatively and 12.85 million tonnes in November. Secondary aluminum, a key supplement to primary supply, recorded 24.2144 million tonnes of production in Jan to Nov, with 2.2042 million tonnes produced in November, reflecting the industry’s efforts to mitigate supply constraints through recycling.

Industry analysts note that the persistent deficit stems from rigid supply constraints and robust demand from emerging sectors like new energy and advanced manufacturing. For aluminum processors specializing in plates, bars, tubes and precision machining, this imbalance emphasizes the importance of supply chain optimization and strategic inventory management. As global capacity expansion remains constrained by policy and energy factors, the deficit is expected to sustain upward pressure on aluminum prices, urging downstream enterprises to strengthen cost control and technological innovation.