A ranar 24 ga Yuni, masu sharhi kan kasuwa sun bayyana cewa zai ɗauki lokaci mai tsawo kafin samar da aluminum da jigilar kayayyaki a yankin Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) su dawo daidai yadda suke a da, kuma rashin tabbas da yawa na ci gaba da kawo cikas ga samar da aluminum da yanayin farashi a duniya.

Masu sharhi kan Alpha Mena sun bayyana a fili cewa ko da an aiwatar da yarjejeniyar zaman lafiya mai dacewa, akwai manyan haɗarin aiwatarwa a cikin sa hannu da tabbatarwa na gaba, sake farawa da aiki da layin samarwa. Daga mahangar sake fasalin, a cikin yanayi mai kyau, zai ɗauki watanni 3 zuwa 6 don gyara wuraren samar da kayayyaki da suka lalace; Idan aka yi la'akari da tarihin murmurewa daga masana'antu bayan rikice-rikicen da suka gabata, sau da yawa yakan ɗauki watanni 6 zuwa 12 don ƙarfin samar da aluminum na yanki ya murmure gaba ɗaya. A halin yanzu, ƙimar aiki na wasu mahimman bayanai.kamfanonin aluminuma yankin Gulf, kamar Alba, EGA, da Qatarum, ana kiyaye su ne kawai a kashi 30% -60%. Cibiyoyi sun yi hasashen cewa zai yi wa yankin wahala wajen cimma cikakken ci gaba da samar da kayayyaki kafin kwata na huɗu na 2026.

Mataimakin Shugaban Bincike a Bankin SICO ya ƙara da cewa rikitattun abubuwan da ke faruwa a yanzu na cunkoson jiragen ruwa na tashar jiragen ruwa, koma bayan kaya, cunkoson kayayyaki, da kuma sauye-sauyen jira da masu saye ke yi a ƙasa suna da alaƙa, wanda hakan ke sa ya yi wuya a yi hasashen lokacin da sarkar masana'antu za ta koma yadda take a da, da kuma matsalar samar da kayayyaki ta ɗan gajeren lokaci yana da wuyar warwarewa gaba ɗaya.

Katsewar kayayyaki ta ci gaba da tallafawa farashin aluminum, kuma Alpha Mena ya ba da hasashen farashi: idan aka cimma yarjejeniyar da ta dace cikin nasara, farashin aluminum na ɗan gajeren lokaci zai fuskanci koma baya da kashi 5% -10%, kuma farashin aluminum na London Metal Exchange (LME) na iya bincika kewayon $2850-2950/ton don neman tallafi; Kasuwar za ta iya daidaitawa daga watan Yuli zuwa Satumba, tare da kullewar aiki a dala 2900-3050 na Amurka a kowace tan.

A ɓangaren wadata da buƙata, yankin Gulf yana da muhimmiyar rawa a tsarin samar da aluminum na duniya. Bayanai sun nuna cewa samar da aluminum na farko na GCC a watan Afrilun wannan shekara ya kai kashi 62% kacal na matakin kafin rikici; Jimillar samar da aluminum na farko a wannan yanki ya kai kashi 6% -8% na jimillar duniya, kuma muhimmin tushen shigo da kayayyaki ne ga ƙasashe da yawa, wanda ke samar da kashi 19% na jimillar kayayyakin aluminum da aka shigo da su Tarayyar Turai, kashi 20% -21% ga Amurka, da kuma kashi 28% ga Japan. Ci gaban gyaran ƙarfin samar da aluminum na Gulf yana shafar samar da kayan masarufi a Turai, Amurka, Japan, da sauran wurare da dama kai tsaye, kuma zai ci gaba da samar da tushen tallafi ga farashin aluminum na duniya a matsakaici da dogon lokaci.

Gabaɗaya, ƙarancin yanayin aiki na kamfanonin aluminum na Gulf na iya ci gaba, kuma fa'idodin ɗan gajeren lokaci na iya haifar da koma baya a farashin aluminum. Duk da haka, babban kaso na wadatar da ake samu a duniya a yankin zai iyakance fa'idar farashi, kuma farashin aluminum a kwata na uku na iya canzawa galibi a cikin kewayon.