Aluminum processing materials will warm up after the holiday! Green aluminum in the Yangtze River Comprehensive Report is 24000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 150 yuan. The average price of 6063 aluminum bars in South China is 22650 yuan/ton, with a synchronous increase of 150 yuan; Casting aluminum alloys have become popular across the board, with A356.2 aluminum alloy ingots priced at 24100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan, ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots priced at 24300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan, A380 aluminum alloy ingots priced at 26400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan, and quotes in East and South China generally recording an increase of 130 to 160 yuan. Downstream inventory replenishment willingness is gradually recovering after the holiday. The market also responded: the latest price of Shanghai Aluminum 2611 contract is 23590 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan (updated at 12:05).

On the cost side, there is a stable to weak bottoming out pattern. According to the Yangtze River Comprehensive Display, the average price of 55% to 60% grade bauxite remains unchanged at 595 yuan/ton, while the average price of alumina in East China has slightly decreased by 10 yuan at 2720 yuan/ton. The lack of upward momentum in raw material prices has reserved some profit space for processing materials. The real engine on the demand side comes from new energy lightweighting: AI computing power cooling, commercial aerospace and photovoltaic installation continue to drive high-end aluminum materials, and the decline of new energy chain processing materials such as lithium aluminum foil and electrical round aluminum rods is limited, with outstanding toughness. The transmission chain of demand from the end to upstream processing materials is being connected. Correspondingly, green aluminum is supported by the premium of low-carbon attributes, with a price about 190 yuan/ton higher than ordinary A00 aluminum, indicating that downstream preferences for green traceability aluminum are transforming into price differences. The orderly transmission of industrial profits from upstream smelting to downstream processing has provided a structural foundation for this cycle of warming.

Overall, the price of 24000 yuan on the green aluminum station and the rise of the entire cast aluminum alloy line reflect the gentle repair of the demand side after the holiday; The stability of alumina and bauxite on the cost side provides a buffer for the profit of the industry chain. From the perspective of regional price differences, the East China A356.2 is quoted at 24100 yuan/ton, and the South China ADC12 is quoted at 24180 yuan/ton. The range of inverted quotes between the north and south has narrowed to less than 100 yuan, reflecting that cross regional logistics and inventory mismatches are easing, and the price increase of processed materials is more likely to be transmitted to downstream terminals rather than absorbed by inventory. We need to pay attention to the sustainability of new energy orders in the future, as well as whether downstream inventory replenishment can shift from a pulse like pattern to a trend after the National Day holiday. This will be the key to whether aluminum processing material prices can maintain their upward trend. From a terminal perspective, the lightweighting of new energy vehicles and the production resilience of aluminum used for photovoltaic frames are gradually digesting the upward pressure of processed materials, and the visibility of orders has improved compared to before the holiday; If the demand for lightweighting continues to increase as scheduled, the premium center of processed materials for primary aluminum may continue to rise.