As of the week ending December 31, 2025 the domestic scrap aluminum market continued to fluctuate at a high level, with regional price adjustments showing a significant differentiation pattern. During the New Year’s Day holiday, it even fell into a stalemate of “having a price but no market”. According to the data from Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network, on December 31, the price of ADC12, a mainstream product of recycled aluminum alloy, climbed to 22,100 yuan/ton, hitting a new price high in more than two years since April 2022. The cost support and weak demand formed a stark contrast, and the market may maintain a high-level fluctuation pattern in the short term.

Specifically, the regional differentiation characteristics of the scrap aluminum market are prominent. The scrap aluminum prices in East China have shown strong performance, with a weekly increase of 200-300 yuan/ton, making it the core rising region in this round of price adjustment. However, due to the continuous enforcement of environmental protection and production restriction policies, as well as high local scrap aluminum inventories, the price adjustment range in the Central Plains region is relatively limited, and the market activity is significantly lower than that in East China. During the New Year’s Day holiday, due to the shutdown and vacation of downstream enterprises and the suspension of quotations by traders, market transactions stagnated, highlighting the characteristic of “having a price but no market”, further exacerbating the short-term market wait-and-see sentiment.

The secondary aluminum market has exhibited particularly impressive performance. The price of ADC12, a mainstream cast aluminum alloy grade, has seen a significant increase, surging past the 22,000 yuan/ton mark to reach 22,100 yuan/ton, marking a new price peak in over two years. According to analysis, the surge in ADC12 prices is primarily attributed to dual support: On one hand, as scrap aluminum serves as a core raw material, the continuous tight supply has led to persistently high production costs for secondary aluminum enterprises, providing a solid cost support. On the other hand, the prices of base metals such as aluminum and copper have remained high, driving the prices of secondary aluminum products to rise simultaneously, further boosting the quotation of ADC12.

It is worth noting that the current market supply-demand imbalance is quite prominent, and it has not formed a virtuous cycle due to price increases. From the demand side, downstream die-casting enterprises have a strong risk aversion sentiment, and demand remains sluggish. Affected by multiple factors such as high raw material prices, year-end financial settlement pressures, and reduced order volumes, enterprises’ willingness to purchase has declined significantly, with most opting for small-scale replenishment based on demand, making it difficult to form effective demand support. The supply side is also under pressure. On the one hand, affected by sluggish downstream demand, the enthusiasm of recycled aluminum enterprises to start production is limited; on the other hand, the insufficient supply of scrap aluminum raw materials continues to restrict capacity release, further highlighting the weak supply-demand situation.

Industry insiders indicate that despite the strong cost support currently providing a recovery in profitability compared to the previous period, weak demand remains a key factor constraining market growth. Considering the current supply-demand dynamics and the pace of market stocking ahead of the Spring Festival, it is anticipated that ADC12 prices will continue to fluctuate at high levels in the short term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to changes in scrap aluminum supply, the progress of downstream demand recovery, and the impact of fluctuations in base metal prices.