A cross regional game is unfolding in the global aluminum supply. According to CCMN platform’s report on October 29th, the primary aluminum production on the European continent reached 5.56 million tons from January to September this year, an increase of 5.69% compared to 5.26 million tons in the same period of 2025, and the growth rate has been increasing quarter by quarter, with resumption of production becoming the main incremental force. This is in sharp contrast to the rigid constraints under the domestic production capacity ceiling of 45 million tons, overseas resumption of production and increase in volume, domestic supply cap, the reverse stretching of the two curves is reshaping the marginal pricing power of global aluminum, and the once “Chinese pricing” logic is being diluted by multipolar supply.

On the cost side, another layer of support is provided. The average price of alumina in East China remained stable at 2700 yuan/ton, while the price of bauxite (55% to 60%) remained unchanged at 595 yuan/ton. The first open top box train for alumina entering Xinjiang was shipped from Mianchi, Henan, marking an upgrade in logistics connection efficiency in the central and western regions. In the long run, it is expected to lower the raw material to plant costs of inland electrolytic aluminum plants and open up new avenues for the cost curve. At the same time, in the 2026 typical cases of industrial green and low-carbon announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the “green content” of aluminum is being included in the pricing logic, and the trend of carbon cost pricing is gradually making the premium space of green electric aluminum more apparent.

Therefore, the cost structure is divided into two tracks: “traditional thermal power aluminum” and “green electric aluminum”. However, on the other side of the macro balance, the US dollar has recently risen continuously and once exceeded 102.3. The closing price of London aluminum priced in US dollars was $3081/ton (down $16 from the previous trading day). The strong US dollar’s suppression on metal valuation has not subsided, and the triangular pull of supply increment, cost support, and weak US dollar expectations has put aluminum prices in a dilemma of up and down balance in the short term. Any unilateral driving force needs to wait for variables to become clear. On a geopolitical level, the decline in energy prices in Europe is a prerequisite for the realization of this round of production resumption.

After the cost of natural gas fell from its peak in 2022, the cash cost curve of idle capacity in Western Europe significantly shifted downwards, and the economic viability of production resumption was thus repaired; But this also poses a hidden danger – once energy prices rise again, the marginal cost of resuming production capacity will once again become the anchor for prices. At the same time, domestic green aluminum is gradually gaining a premium in exports and high-end orders due to its low-carbon attributes, while traditional thermal aluminum is facing cost reassessment under the expectation of carbon tariffs, and the pricing pattern of the two rail system is solidifying.

Overall, the resumption of production in Europe and the domestic ceiling form a “one loose, one tight” supply chain, while the downward shift of the cost curve and the upward shift of the carbon premium form a hedge. The fundamental long and short clues are intertwined and difficult to distinguish between high and low; Before the strong US dollar reverses, aluminum prices lack a trigger for a unilateral breakthrough. The latest price of the Shanghai Aluminum 2612 contract is 23375 yuan/ton, with a narrow range around 23300 yuan, which is a projection of the balance between long and short positions. In the future, we need to closely monitor the pace of overseas production resumption, the realization of domestic green aluminum premium, and the trend of the US dollar index.

The strength or weakness of the three will determine the direction of the aluminum market in the next stage, and will also verify whether the low inventory environment can hold the price bottom line in the supply game. For China, the 45 million ton ceiling means that the supply elasticity is almost locked in, and any unexpected elasticity on the demand side will be amplified by the low inventory environment. This is also the fundamental reason why aluminum prices are still difficult to fall below the previous low point under the strong suppression of the US dollar, the rigid ceiling of supply provides an invisible bottom barrier for prices.