Shanghai futures price trend: The main monthly 2511 contract for aluminum alloy casting today is experiencing strong fluctuations. As of 3:00 pm on the same day, the main monthly contract for aluminum alloy casting was reported at 19715 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan or 0.59%. The main contract has accumulated 2805 transactions, a decrease of 889 transactions; The position of 7964 lots increased by 61 lots.

According to data from Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network, on June 26th, Changjiang spot data showed that the quoted price for casting aluminum alloy ingots (A356.2) was 21000-21400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 21200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The quotation for casting aluminum alloy ingots (A380) is between 21100-21300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 21200 yuan/ton, which remains unchanged. The quotation for aluminum alloy ADC12 ranges from 20000 to 20200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 20100 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The quotation for casting aluminum alloy ingots (ZL102) is 20500-20700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 20600 yuan/ton, which remains unchanged. The quotation for casting aluminum alloy ingots (ZLD104) is 20600-20800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 20700 yuan/ton, which remains unchanged.

Analysis of the CCMN Casting Aluminum Alloy Market: At the macro level, the market sentiment was cautious before the release of US economic data, the Iran Israel ceasefire agreement weakened safe haven demand, and the policy expectation of Trump or early appointment of the Federal Reserve Chairman disturbed the market. Coupled with the resonance between the rebound in oil prices and the weakening of the US dollar, the risk appetite of the futures market rebounded, supporting the strong volatility of casting aluminum futures. In terms of spot goods, the premium structure of cast aluminum alloys is maintained, and holders are reluctant to sell at high prices, but they are cautious and cautious downstream. The willingness to purchase for essential needs is weak, and actual transactions are light.

The fundamentals are under dual pressure: terminal consumption is still in the off-season, coupled with the US raising tariffs on electric vehicles to 100% and subsidy reduction policies, the demand growth rate may further slow down in the second half of the year; But the overall stability of the automotive market provides a support for aluminum alloy consumption. On the supply side, the decrease of 8% in the amount of scrap aluminum received in June compared to the previous month has pushed up raw material costs. However, the contradiction of overcapacity in the casting aluminum alloy industry is prominent, with an average gross profit margin of only 3.2%. The insufficient ability to transfer costs has led to sustained losses for enterprises. Strategically, the expected difference in AD-AL price difference still exists, and one can participate in long AD-AL price difference by rolling on dips.