China’s primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) industry exhibited a distinctive “rising costs alongside growing profits” trend in November 2025, according to cost and price analysis released by Antaike, a leading non-ferrous metals research institution. This dual dynamic offers critical insights for upstream smelters, midstream processors (including aluminum plate, bar, and tube manufacturers), and downstream end-users navigating market volatility.

Antaike’s calculations show that the weighted average total cost (including tax) of primary aluminum in November reached RMB 16,297 per ton, increasing by RMB 304 per ton (or 1.9%) month-on-month (MoM). Notably, the cost remained RMB 3,489 per ton (or 17.6%) lower year-on-year (YoY), reflecting lingering cost advantages from earlier periods. Two factors primarily drove the monthly cost uptick: higher anode prices and elevated electricity costs. However, the persistent decline in alumina prices acted as a partial offset, curbing the overall cost increase. Antaike’s spot price data indicates that the average spot price of alumina, a core raw material for primary aluminum production, fell by RMB 97 per ton (or 3.3%) MoM to RMB 2,877 per ton during the November raw material procurement cycle.

Electricity costs, a major component of primary aluminum production expenses, saw a notable rise. Upward movements in coal prices pushed up the cost of self generated electricity at smelters, while southern China’s entry into the dry season led to a marked increase in grid electricity tariffs. Consequently, the comprehensive electricity cost (including tax) for the primary aluminum industry climbed by RMB 0.03 per kWh MoM to RMB 0.417 per kWh in November. Meanwhile, pre-baked anode prices, another key cost driver, continued their recovery trajectory. After hitting a low in September, anode prices have risen for three consecutive months, with the magnitude of the increase expanding month by month, primarily due to higher costs of petroleum coke, a key raw material for anode production.

Despite rising costs, the primary aluminum market’s profit outlook improved as price gains outpaced cost increases. The average price of the Shanghai Aluminum (SHFE Al) continuous contract surged by RMB 492 per ton MoM to RMB 21,545 per ton in November. Antaike estimates that the average profit per ton of primary aluminum stood at RMB 5,248 in November (not excluding value added tax and corporate income tax, given varying tax rates across regions), representing a MoM increase of RMB 188 per ton. This marked the industry’s sustained profitability, a positive signal for the entire aluminum supply chain, from smelters ensuring production stability to aluminum processors (such as those engaged in aluminum machining) optimizing raw material procurement strategies.

For businesses focused on aluminum plate, bar, tube manufacturing, and machining, this cost-profit dynamic underscores the importance of closely tracking upstream price and cost fluctuations to balance production costs and product pricing, thereby maintaining competitiveness in both domestic and international markets.