The World Bureau of Metal Statistics has released its latest report, revealing a deepening supply demand imbalance in the global primary aluminum market for September 2025 a trend with far reaching implications for downstream processors of aluminum sheets, bars, tubes, and precision machined components.

Key figures show global primary aluminum production reached 6.0163 million metric tons in September, while consumption hit 6.2084 million metric tons, resulting in a monthly supply deficit of 192,100 metric tons. The imbalance has persisted through the first three quarters: January to September 2025 production totaled 54.5499 million metric tons against consumption of 55.8353 million metric tons, widening the year-to-date (YTD) shortage to 1.2854 million metric tons.

This deficit stems from a structural mismatch between constrained supply and surging demand. On the supply side, global capacity expansion remains sluggish: China, the world’s top producer, is nearing its 45 million metric ton annual capacity ceiling, with minimal room for incremental output. Overseas growth is equally constrained, Indonesian new projects face delays due to power infrastructure bottlenecks, while (European and U.S.) idle capacity struggles to restart amid high energy costs and competition for power from AI data centers.

Demand, meanwhile, is being driven by “new energy + traditional” dual engines. Emerging sectors like energy storage systems (ESS), all-electric commercial vehicles, and AI data centers are fueling explosive growth, 100 GWh of ESS alone consumes 160,000 metric tons of aluminum. Traditional fields such as construction and industrial packaging also maintain steady demand, creating sustained upward pressure on consumption.

For aluminum sheet, bar, tube and machining enterprises, this tight market underscores the urgency of supply chain resilience. The deficit is already supporting aluminum price floors, with LME aluminum prices hover near three-year highs, emphasizing the need for long-term feedstock contracts and inventory optimization.

Industry analysts anticipate the deficit will widen further into 2026 as demand outpaces supply growth. For downstream processors, closely monitoring WBMS data and aligning production plans with market dynamics will be critical to navigating cost volatility and securing competitive advantage.