Ngomhla wama-23 kuMatshi 2026, imakethi ye-aluminium yasekhaya yafumana ukurhoxa okukhulu, kwaye amathemba exesha lokusetyenziswa kwe-"golide, isilivere, kunye nesine" aphela ngokupheleleyo. Imakethi yavavanywa kakhulu "lixesha lokusetyenziswa kwe-weak peak", kwaye amaxabiso e-spot kunye ne-futures ngaxeshanye ancipha, nto leyo eyakhokelela ekupholeni okukhulu kwemvakalelo ye-bullish.

Amaxabiso exesha elizayo namaxabiso akhawulezileyo awe kunye, amaxabiso aphambili ehla emva kwelinye

Ngaloo mini, isivumelwano esiphambili seShanghai Aluminium sehle kakhulu ngexesha leseshoni yokurhweba, sakha sawela ngaphantsi kwenani elipheleleyo le-23300 yuan/ton, kunye nokuhla kwemihla ngemihla okungaphezulu kwe-1.4%, nto leyo egxininisa indlela ebuthathaka ngayo imarike. Kwangaxeshanye, ixabiso eliqhelekileyo lee-ingots ze-aluminium zasekhaya liye lehla ngaxeshanye, lawela ngaphantsi kwexabiso eliphambili lengqondo le-24000 yuan/ton. Imarike inemvakalelo enamandla yokulinda nokubona, kwaye umoya wokurhweba uhlala ulula.

Ubuninzi bezinto ezisetyenzisiweyo kunye nemfuno ebuthathaka, ukungabikho kwezinto kunye nokuphikisana kwemfuno kuba ngumqobo ophambili

Eyona nto iphambili ebangela ukuba imarike ye-aluminium ibuthathaka ngoku ikukungalingani okukhulu phakathi kokunikezelwa kunye nemfuno. Uluhlu lwezentlalo lwee-ingots ze-aluminium zasekhaya lunyuke lwaya kwi-1.339 yezigidi zeetoni, lubeka inqanaba eliphezulu elitsha kwiminyaka emihlanu, kwaye uluhlu olukhulu luyaqhubeka nokunciphisa indawo ephezulu yamaxabiso. Nangona kunjalo, icala labathengi elisezantsi liyaqhubeka nokusebenza kancinci, kwaye ukukhululwa kwemfuno yexesha le-peak akuhambisani nolindelo. Umahluko omkhulu phakathi koluhlu oluphezulu kunye nemfuno ebuthathaka uye waba yinto ephambili ehlisa amaxabiso e-aluminium.

Uxinzelelo oluninzi olukhulu, ukomelela kwedola yaseMelika kuyayicinezela icandelo elingenayo i-ferrous

Imeko-bume enkulu nayo inempembelelo embiimakethi ye-aluminiumUkwanda kwengxabano phakathi kwe-United States ne-Iran kunyuse amaxabiso eoli ekrwada kumazwe ngamazwe kwaye kwabangela ukuba kubekho inkxalabo yokunyuka kwamaxabiso emarike; Ngenxa yoko, ulindelo lokunciphisa amazinga enzala kwi-Federal Reserve luye lwahlehliswa ngakumbi kude kube sekupheleni kwekota yesithathu okanye kwanekota yesine. Ukuqina kwesalathisi sedola yaseMelika kuyaqhubeka nokufaka uxinzelelo kwiintlobo zesinyithi ezingezizo i-ferrous ezixabisa iidola zaseMelika, kwaye imakethi ye-aluminium ayinakubaleka ukurhuqwa ngokubanzi kweli candelo.

Umahluko osisiseko wangaphakathi nowangaphandle, uxinzelelo lwasekhaya, ukunciphisa imveliso yaphesheya kunye nokususa isitokhwe

Iziseko zemarike ye-aluminium yehlabathi zibonisa ipateni ebalulekileyo yokwahluka kwangaphakathi nangaphandle. Kwicala laphesheya, ingxabano yaseMbindi Mpuma iyaqhubeka nokukhula, apho iinkampani ezininzi ze-aluminium zaphesheya ezifana neQatar Aluminium kunye neBahrain Aluminium zifumana ukuncitshiswa okukhulu kwemveliso, kunye nokwehla okuhlangeneyo kweetoni ezingaphezu kwesigidi esinye. Iimpahla ze-aluminium ze-LME ziyaqhubeka nokuncipha ukuya kwiitoni ezingama-433000, nto leyo ebonisa ukuqiniswa okukhulu kokunikezelwa kwamanye amazwe.

Kwelinye icala, eTshayina, uxinzelelo lwezinto eziphezulu azikasonjululwa, kwaye amashishini okucubungula asezantsi acinezelwe kakhulu kukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso e-aluminium, nto leyo ebangele ukuncitshiswa okukhulu kwinzuzo kunye nokuzimisela okungapheliyo kokuthenga. Izinga lokwamkelwa kwee-odolo ezivela kumashishini okuphinda asebenzise inkunkuma liye lehla laya kwinqanaba lokuqhwanyaza, kugcinwa kuphela isantya sokuthengwa okubalulekileyo. Imarike ye-aluminium elahliweyo ichaphazeleka ngumgaqo-nkqubo "wokubuyisela i-invoyisi" emva, kwaye ukuhanjiswa kweempahla ezijikelezayo kuyaqhubeka nokuba nzima. Uluhlu oluphambili lwe-aluminium eluhlaza ephukileyo (ixabiso lamanzi) lutshintsha kancinci malunga ne-20200-20800 yuan/ton (ngaphandle kwerhafu), kwaye akukho mqondiso ucacileyo wokubuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo okwangoku.

Ukutshintsha indlela yokurhweba, ulindelo lokudodobala koqoqosho luthatha indawo yeeprimiyamu zezopolitiko

Okwangoku, ingqwalasela yorhwebo lwemarike ye-aluminium itshintshe kakhulu, ukusuka ekucingeleni nje ngeeprimiyamu zomngcipheko wezopolitiko ukuya ekurhwebeni kancinci kancinci okulindelweyo kokudodobala koqoqosho lwehlabathi. Amaxabiso aphezulu eoli, ngelixa enyusa uxinzelelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso, nawo aphakamise iinkxalabo kwimarike malunga nokudodobala kokukhula koqoqosho lwehlabathi. Umnqweno womngcipheko wemali upholile kakhulu, kwaye imakethi ye-aluminium iya kuqhubeka nokujongana novavanyo oluninzi loxinzelelo kwixesha elifutshane.