1. Investment frenzy and technological upgrading:the underlying logic of industrial expansion

According to data from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the investment index for aluminum smelting in April jumped to 172.5, a significant increase compared to the previous month, reflecting the three core directions of enterprise strategic layout.

Green power capacity expansion: With the deepening of the “dual carbon” target, the construction of hydropower aluminum bases in Yunnan, Guangxi and other regions is accelerating, and the cost of green power is as low as 0.28 yuan/kWh, promoting electrolytic aluminum enterprises to shift their production capacity to low-carbon areas. For example, a certain aluminum company in Shandong has shifted its production capacity to Yunnan, achieving a cost reduction of 300 yuan per ton of aluminum.

High end technological transformation: Enterprises increase investment in equipment for 6 μ m ultra-thin battery aluminum foil, aerospace aluminum, and other fields. For example, electromagnetic stirring technology has increased the yield of 8 μ m aluminum foil to 92%, and the gross profit margin of high value-added products has exceeded 40%.

Strengthening supply chain resilience: In response to international trade frictions, leading enterprises have laid out a Southeast Asian recycled aluminum recycling network, reducing raw material costs by 15%, while the domestic “half-hour supply circle” has shortened logistics costs by 120 yuan/ton.

2. Production differentiation: the game between increasing electrolytic aluminum production and decreasing alumina production

The electrolytic aluminum production index rose to 22.9 (+1.4%) in April, while the alumina production index dropped to 52.5 (-4.9%), presenting three major contradictions in the supply and demand pattern.

Profit driven electrolytic aluminum: The profit per ton of aluminum remains above 3000 yuan, stimulating enterprises to resume production (such as in Guangxi and Sichuan) and release new production capacity (in Qinghai and Yunnan), with an operating capacity of 43.83 million tons and a operating rate of over 96%.

Rational return of alumina prices: After a year-on-year increase of 39.9% in alumina prices in 2024, the operating rates in Shanxi, Henan and other places decreased by 3-6 percentage points in April due to the release of overseas production capacity (new mining areas in Guinea) and maintenance of domestic high cost enterprises, easing price pressure.

Inventory dynamic balance: The depletion of social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is accelerating (inventory decreased by 30000 tons in April), while the circulation of alumina is loose, and spot prices continue to bottom out, resulting in upstream and downstream profit redistribution.

3. Profit leap: driving force for revenue growth of 4% and profit surge of 37.6%

The main business revenue and profit of the aluminum smelting industry have both increased, and the core driving force lies in.

Product structure optimization: The proportion of high-end aluminum materials has increased (such as a 206% increase in sales of new energy vehicle battery cases), offsetting the downward pressure on exports (aluminum export index has dropped to -88.0).

Cost control revolution: Green electricity replaces thermal power to reduce energy consumption costs by 15%, and waste aluminum recycling technology ensures a gross profit margin of 25% for recycled aluminum (8% higher than electrolytic aluminum).

Scale effect release: Top enterprises achieve the integration of alumina electrolytic aluminum processing through mergers and acquisitions (such as Zhongfu Industrial’s acquisition of electrolytic aluminum production capacity), reducing unit costs by 10%.

4. Risks and Challenges: Hidden Concerns under High Growth

Low end overcapacity: The operating rate of traditional aluminum foil above 10 μ m is less than 60%, and the price war is compressing profit margins.

Technological transformation bottleneck: The dependence on imported high-end rolling mills exceeds 60%, and the failure rate of equipment debugging reaches 40%, which may miss the technical window period.

Policy uncertainty: The United States’ imposition of tariffs ranging from 34% to 145% on China has caused severe fluctuations in aluminum prices (with Lunan Aluminum plummeting to 19530 yuan/ton at one point), putting pressure on export-oriented enterprises.

5. Future vision: from “scale expansion” to “quality leap”

Regional Capacity Restructuring: Green power bases in Yunnan, Guangxi, and other regions may exceed 40% of their production capacity by 2030, forming a closed-loop industry of “hydropower aluminum high-end processing recycling”.

Breakthrough of technical barriers: The localization rate of aluminum foil below 8 μ m has been increased to 80%, and hydrogen melting technology may reduce carbon emissions per ton of aluminum by 70%.

Globalization layout: Based on RCEP, deepen cooperation in Southeast Asian bauxite and build a cross-border chain of “China smelting ASEAN processing global sales”.