The latest results of the monthly prosperity index monitoring model for China’s aluminum smelting industry show that in November 2025, the domestic aluminum smelting industry prosperity index recorded 56.9, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from October, and remained in the “normal” operating range, demonstrating the resilience of the industry’s development. At the same time, the sub indices showed a trend of differentiation: the leading index was 67.1, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from October; The consensus index reached 122.3, an increase of 3.3 percentage points from October, reflecting a positive trend in the current industry operation, but with a slight slowdown in short-term growth expectations for the future.

It is understood that in the aluminum smelting industry prosperity index system, the leading index is mainly used to predict the recent change trend of the industry, which is composed of five leading indicators, namely LME aluminum price, M2 (money supply), total fixed assets investment in aluminum smelting projects, sales area of commercial housing, and power generation; The consistency index directly reflects the current industry operation status, covering core business indicators such as electrolytic aluminum production, alumina production, enterprise operating income, total profit, and total aluminum exports. The significant increase in the consensus index this time means that the production and operation of the aluminum smelting industry showed a positive trend in November.

From the perspective of industry fundamentals, the stable operation of the aluminum smelting industry in November was supported by the synergy between supply and demand. On the supply side, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China remains at a high level. Although it slightly decreased by 3.5% month on month to 44.06 million tons, the output still reached 3.615 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%; The production of alumina reached 7.47 million tons, a decrease of 4% compared to the previous period, but still achieved a year-on-year growth of 1.8%. The overall production pace of the industry remained stable. The price performance is strong, and Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated strongly in November. The main contract closed at 21610 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.5%, providing strong support for the improvement of industry efficiency.

The demand side presents structural differentiation characteristics and has become an important force supporting the industry’s prosperity. In November, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises remained at 62%, with outstanding performance in the new energy related fields: battery foil orders in the aluminum foil sector were fully booked, and some companies even shifted their packaging foil production capacity to battery foil production; The production lines of automotive panels, battery cases, and other products in the aluminum strip field are operating at full capacity, effectively offsetting the weak demand in traditional fields. In addition, the landing of orders from State Grid and Southern Power Grid has supported a slight increase in aluminum cable production rate by 0.6 percentage points to 62%, further consolidating the supporting role of the demand side.

Industry insiders believe that the slight decline in the leading index is mainly influenced by the sluggish real estate market and fluctuations in global demand expectations. As one of the leading indicators, the sales area of commercial housing continues to be low, which suppresses the demand for building profiles; At the same time, concerns about global aluminum demand caused by the slowing pace of overseas economic recovery have also exerted a certain drag on the leading index. However, the current macro policy environment continues to improve, and the measures issued by the State Council to promote private investment and the prudent monetary policy of the central bank provide stable policy support for the medium and long-term development of the aluminum smelting industry.

Looking ahead, industry insiders indicate that although the decline in the leading index suggests a possible slowdown in short-term growth momentum, the rise in the consensus index confirms the solid fundamentals of the current industry operation. Coupled with the long-term demand growth support brought by the development of the new energy industry, the aluminum smelting industry is expected to continue to operate smoothly in the “normal” range. We need to focus on the potential impact of real estate policy adjustments, changes in overseas market demand, and fluctuations in raw material prices on the industry in the future.