On May 15, 2025, JPMorgan’s latest report predicted that the average aluminum price in the second half of 2025 would be $2325 per ton. The aluminum price forecast is significantly lower than the optimistic judgment of “supply shortage driven surge to $2850″ in early March, reflecting the balance of short-term market divergence by institutions.

The unexpected progress of the China US trade agreement has eased pessimistic expectations for aluminum demand. China’s early procurement: After the loosening of tariff barriers, Chinese buyers accelerate the hoarding of low-priced resources, pushing up prices in the short term.

1. Short term driving factors and market contradictions

Low inventory and demand resilience

New low inventory coverage: Global explicit aluminum inventory can only cover about 15 days of consumption, the lowest level since 2016, supporting price elasticity;

Structural demand substitution: The growth rate of aluminum demand in emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaic installations has reached 6% -8%, partially offsetting the risk of declining demand for traditional automobiles.

2. Risk Warning and Long term Concerns

Aluminum demand side ‘black swan’

Dragging the automotive industry: If the sales of traditional fuel vehicles decline beyond expectations (such as the economic recession in Europe and America), aluminum prices may fall below $2000/ton.

Energy cost impact: Fluctuations in European natural gas prices may push up the production cost of electrolytic aluminum, exacerbating regional supply-demand imbalances.

3. Suggestions for Industry Chain Strategy

Smelting end: Lock in premium contracts in the Asian region to avoid the risk of narrowing cross Pacific arbitrage spreads.

Processing end: Aluminum enterprises prioritize purchasing spot goods from bonded zones and utilize low inventory premium windows.

Investment side: aluminum prices are wary of the risk of breaking through the $2300 support level.