Musi waMay 15, 2025, JPMorgan's report yazvino yakafanotaura kuti avhareji mutengo wealuminium muhafu yechipiri ya2025 yaizova $2325 patani. Mutengo wealuminium wakadzikira zvakanyanya pane mutongo une tariro we "kushomeka kunofambiswa nekuwedzera kusvika $2850" mukutanga kwaKurume, zvichiratidza kuenzana kwekusiyana kwemusika kwenguva pfupi nemasangano.

Kufambira mberi kusingatarisirwe kwechibvumirano chekutengeserana cheChina cheUS kwakadzoreredza tarisiro isina tariro yekudiwa kwealuminium. Kutenga kweChina kwekutanga: Mushure mekusunungurwa kwezvipingamupinyi zvemitero, vatengi veChinese vanomhanyisa kuunganidzwa kwezvinhu zvine mitengo yakaderera, vachikwidza mitengo munguva pfupi.

1. Nguva pfupi yekutyaira zvinhu uye kupokana kwemusika

Low inventory uye inoda kusimba

New low low inventory coverage: Global yakajeka aruminiyamu inventory inogona kungovhara anenge mazuva gumi nemashanu ekushandiswa, iyo yakaderera mwero kubvira 2016, inotsigira mutengo elasticity;

Structural demand substitution: Chiyero chekukura kwealuminium kudiwa muminda iri kusimukira sengemotokari itsva dzine simbauye kuiswa kwe photovoltaic kwasvika 6% -8%, zvishoma zvichibvisa njodzi yekudzikira kudiwa kwemotokari dzechinyakare.

2. Yambiro yeNjodzi uye Kunetseka Kwenguva Yakareba

Aluminium inoda side 'black swan'

Kukwevera indasitiri yemotokari: Kana kutengeswa kwemotokari dzechinyakare kukadzikira kupfuura zvaitarisirwa (sekuderera kwehupfumi muEurope neAmerica), mitengo yealuminium inogona kudonha pasi pemadhora mazana maviri patani.

Mutengo wesimba remagetsi: Kuchinja kwemitengo yegasi rechisikigo muEurope kunogona kukwidza mutengo wekugadzira electrolytic aluminium, zvichiwedzera kusaenzana kwedunhu-kudiwa.

3. Mazano eIndustry Chain Strategy

Kupera kwekunyungudika: Kiya muzvibvumirano zvekutanga mudunhu reAsia kudzivirira njodzi yekupfupisa mhiri kwePacific arbitrage kupararira.

Kupera kwekugadzirisa:Aluminium mabhizinesikoshesa kutenga zvinhu kubva munzvimbo dzakasungwa uye shandisa yakaderera inventory premium windows.

Kudivi rekudyara: mitengo yealuminium inongwarira njodzi yekupaza nepakati peiyo $2300 yekutsigira nhanho.