NgoMeyi 15, 2025, umbiko wakamuva we-JPMorgan wabikezela ukuthi inani lentengo ye-aluminium engxenyeni yesibili ka-2025 lizoba ngu-$2325 ngethani. Isibikezelo sentengo ye-aluminium siphansi kakhulu kunesinqumo esinethemba “sokwanda okubangelwa ukushoda okuya ku-$2850” ekuqaleni kukaMashi, okubonisa ibhalansi yokuhlukana kwezimakethe kwesikhashana kwezikhungo.

Inqubekelaphambili ebingalindelekile yesivumelwano sohwebo sase-China sase-US sehlise ukulindela okungenathemba kwesidingo se-aluminium. Ukuthengwa kwempahla kwaseShayina kusenesikhathi: Ngemva kokuxegiswa kwezithiyo zentela, abathengi baseShayina basheshisa ukuqoqwa kwezinsiza ezinentengo ephansi, bakhuphule amanani esikhathini esifushane.

1. Izici zokushayela zesikhashana kanye nokungqubuzana kwemakethe

I-inventory ephansi kanye nesidingo sokuqina

Ukufakwa okusha kwe-inventory ephansi: Ukusungula kwe-aluminium ecacile yomhlaba wonke kungamboza kuphela izinsuku ezingaba ngu-15 zokusetshenziswa, izinga eliphansi kakhulu kusukela ngo-2016, ukusekela intengo yokunwebeka;

Ukushintshwa kwesidingo sesakhiwo: Izinga lokukhula kwesidingo se-aluminium emikhakheni esafufusa njengeizimoto ezintsha zamandlafuthi ukufakwa kwe-photovoltaic sekufinyelele ku-6% -8%, okunciphisa kancane ingozi yokuncipha kwesidingo sezimoto zendabuko.

2. Isexwayiso Ngobungozi kanye Nokukhathazeka Kwesikhathi Eside

I-Aluminium ifuna uhlangothi 'i-black swan'

Ukuhudula imboni yezimoto: Uma ukuthengiswa kwezimoto zikaphethiloli zehla ngaphezu kwalokho obekulindelwe (njengokuwohloka komnotho eYurophu naseMelika), amanani e-aluminium angase ehle ngaphansi kuka-$2000/ton.

Umthelela wezindleko zamandla: Ukushintshashintsha kwezintengo zegesi yemvelo yaseYurophu kungase kwenyuse izindleko zokukhiqizwa kwe-electrolytic aluminium, kubhebhethekise ukungalingani kwesidingo sokuhlinzekwa kwesifunda.

3. Iziphakamiso ze-Industrial Chain Strategy

Isiphetho sokuncibilikisa: Khiya izinkontileka zeprimiyamu esifundeni sase-Asia ukuze ugweme ingcuphe yokuncipha kokusabalala kwe-arbitrage ye-Pacific.

Ukuphela kokucubungula:Amabhizinisi Aluminiumbeka kuqala ukuthenga izimpahla ezindaweni eziboshiwe futhi usebenzise amafasitela entengo ephansi.

Uhlangothi lokutshalwa kwezimali: izintengo ze-aluminium ziyayiqaphela ingozi yokweqa izinga lokusekela lika-$2300.