Ongororo yehukama pakati pemaindasitiri emhangura nealuminium uye kududzira kwakadzama kwekukanganisa kwemitemo yemitero.

1. Indasitiri yeAluminium: Kugadziridzwa Kwemaitiro pasi peTariff Policies uye Rise of Recycled Aluminium

Tariff policy inofambisa kugadziridzwa kwezvekugovera

Hutongi hwaTrump hwakakwidza mutero wealuminium wekunze kubva pa10% kusvika pa25% uye kudzima kuregererwa kweCanada neMexico, zvichikanganisa kutengeserana kwepasi rose kwealuminium. Kutsamira kweUnited States pakutenga kunze kwealuminium kwasvika 44%, iyo 76% inobva kuCanada. Mitemo yemitero inotungamira kuCanada aluminium kutendeukira kumusika weEU, zvichiwedzera kuwedzera kweEU. Nhoroondo dzenhoroondo dzinoratidza kuti Trump paakatemera mutero wealuminium gumi muzana panguva yake yekutanga muna 2018, mitengo yeShanghai neLondon aluminum yakadzokororwa mushure mekudzikira kwenguva pfupi, zvichiratidza kuti kupihwa kwepasirese uye zvinodiwa zvakakosha zvichiri kutonga maitiro emitengo. Nekudaro, mutengo wemitero unozopedzisira wapfuudzwa kumaindasitiri ezasi muUnited States, akadai semotokari uye kuvaka.

Kukwidziridzwa kweChina indasitiri yealuminium uye maviri maviri kabhoni mikana

Semugadziri mukuru wealuminium pasi rose (akaverengera makumi mashanu nesere muzana ekugadzirwa kwepasi rose muna 2024), China iri kutyaira shanduko yeindasitiri kuburikidza ne "dual carbon" zano. Indasitiri yealuminium yakadzokororwa yakave nekukura kukuru, nekugadzirwa kwe9.5 miriyoni matani muna 2024, gore-pa-gore kuwedzera kwe22%, inoverengera makumi maviri muzana yearuminiyamu yakazara. Iyo Yangtze Rwizi Delta dunhu rakagadzira yakazara tsvina aruminiyamu yekudzokorodza indasitiri cheni, ine mabhizinesi anotungamira achidzikisa mashandisiro esimba realuminium yakadzokororwa kusvika pasi pe5% yearuminiyamu yekutanga. Zvigadzirwa zvinoshandiswa zvakanyanya mumotokari lightweighting (chikamu chealuminium kushandiswa mumotokari itsva simba chakawedzera kubva pa3% kusvika 12%) uye photovoltaic minda (huwandu hwealuminium hunoshandiswa mu photovoltaics huchasvika mamiriyoni 1.8 matani ne2024). High end aluminium zvinhu zviri kukurumidza kupinza kupinza, uye yechitatu-chizvarwa aluminium lithium alloy yeSouthwest Aluminium Indasitiri yeChina Aluminium yakashandiswa mundege yeC919. Nanshan Aluminium Indasitiri yave mutengesi ane chibvumirano cheBoeing.

Supply uye kudiwa pateni uye mutengo kutapurirana

Iyo US aluminium tariff policy yakonzera kuwedzera kwemitengo yekunze, asi kugadzirwa kwemumba kwakaoma kukurumidza kuzadza gap. Muna 2024, iyo US aluminium kugadzirwa ichangoita 8.6 miriyoni matani, uye kuwedzera simba kunomanikidzwa nemutengo wesimba. Mutengo wemitero uchaendeswa kuvatengi vekupedzisira kuburikidza neketani yemaindasitiri, sekuwedzera mutengo wemotokari yega yega mukugadzira mota nepamusoro pemadhora zana. Indasitiri yeAluminium yekuChina yakamanikidzwa kuvandudza nemazvo kuburikidza nemutemo we "ceiling" wehuwandu hwekugadzira (inodzorwa pamatani emamiriyoni makumi mana neshanu), uye purofiti patani yealuminium ichasvika 1800 yuan muna 2024, kutanga maitiro ekusimudzira ane hutano muindasitiri.

2. Indasitiri yemhangura: Tariff yekuongorora inokonzera kupa kuchengetedzwa kwemutambo uye kuchinja kwemitengo

Trump 232 Kuongorora uye Strategic Resource Makwikwi

Hutongi hwaTrump hwakatanga ongororo yeChikamu 232 pamusoro pemhangura, ichivavarira kuiisa se "kuchengetedzwa kwenyika kwakakosha zvinhu" uye inogona kubhadharisa mitero kune vatengesi vakuru vakaita seChile neCanada. IUnited States inotsamira zvakanyanya pakutenga kunze kwenyika mhangura, uye mitemo yemitero inokwidza mitengo munzvimbo dzakaita senge mota dzemagetsi uye semiconductors. Musika uyu wakasangana nekumhanyisa kutengesa, neNew York copper remangwana mitengo ichikwira ne2.4% pane imwe nguva, uye mitengo yemasheya emakambani ekuAmerica emigodhi yemhangura (yakadai seMcMoran Copper Gold) ichikwira neinopfuura 6% mushure memaawa.

Njodzi dzepasi rose dzekutengesa uye zviyero zvinotarisirwa

Kana mutero we25% ukaiswa pamhangura, unogona kukonzeresa matanho kubva kune vatengesi vakuru. Chile, semutengesi mukuru wemhangura pasi rose, yakatarisana nenjodzi yekukundikana kwegidhi remagetsi pamwe nekurambidzwa kwemitero, izvo zvinogona kukonzera kuderera kukuru kwemitengo yemhangura yepasi rose. Zvakaitika kare zvakaratidza kuti Section 232 tariffs inowanzo konzera matare eWTO uye kutsiva kubva kune vanotengeserana navo, vakaita seCanada neEuropean Union kuronga kuisa mutero wekutsiva pazvinhu zveUS, izvo zvinogona kukanganisa zvekurima nekugadzira kunze kwenyika.

Copper aluminium mutengo wekubatanidza uye musika kutsiva maitiro

Pane kuwirirana kwakakosha pakati pematengo emhando yemhangura nealuminium, kunyanya kana kudiwa kwezvivakwa uye kugadzira kuchikwira. Kukwira kwemitengo yealuminium kunogona kutsiva kudiwa kwemhangura zvishoma, sekutsiviwa kwealuminium nemhangura mumaitiro emotokari lightweighting. Asi kusadzoreredzwa kwemhangura muminda yakadai sekufambiswa kwemagetsi uye semiconductors kunoita kuti mutemo wayo wemitero uve nekukanganisa kwakadzama pacheni yeindasitiri yepasi rose. Kana United States ikatemera mutero pamhangura, inogona kukwidza mitengo yemhangura yepasi rose, ichiwedzera zvisina kunanga kusagadzikana kwemusika wealuminium nekuda kwekubatana kwemitengo yealuminium.

3. Indasitiri Outlook: Mikana uye Zvinetso pasi pePolisi Gaming

Indasitiri yeAluminium: Aluminium yakadzokororwa uye yakakwirira-yekupedzisira maviri mavhiri vhiri

Indasitiri yeAruminiyamu yekuChina ichaenderera mberi negwara re "total quantity control and structural optimization", uye zvinotarisirwa kuti kugadzirwa kwealuminium yakadzokororwa kuchasvika mamiriyoni gumi nemashanu ematani panosvika 2028, uye chiyero chemusika wealuminium wepamusoro (ndege nemotokari) uchapfuura mabhiriyoni makumi matatu nemashanu eyuan. Mabhizinesi anofanirwa kutarisisa kune yakavharwa-loop kuvaka kwemarara aluminium recycling system (senge Shunbo Alloy's redhisheni marongero) uye kubudirira kwetekinoroji (senge7xxx akatevedzana yakakwirira-simba aruminiyamu alloy).

Indasitiri yemhangura: kupa chengetedzo uye njodzi dzekutengesa dziripo

Mitemo yemitero yaTrump inogona kukurumidzira kugadziridzwazve kwepasi rose copper supply cheni, uye kuwedzera kwesimba rekugadzira mudzimba muUnited States (seRio Tinto's Arizona copper mine) zvichatora nguva kuti zvionekwe. Indasitiri yeChina yemhangura inofanirwa kungwarira nezve mutengo wekufambisa unokonzerwa nemitengo, uchitora mikana yekukura kwekuda munzvimbo dzakaita semota nyowani dzemagetsi neAI.

Iyo Yakareba Impact yePolisi Yemitambo paMusika

Chinokosha chemutemo wemitero ndeye "kuchinjana mutengo wevatengi kuchengetedza indasitiri", izvo zvinogona kudzvinyirira kutengeserana kwepasirese kubudirira mukufamba kwenguva. Mabhizinesi anofanirwa kuvharira njodzi kuburikidza nekutenga kwakasiyana-siyana uye marongerwo ematunhu (seSoutheast Asia transit trade), uchiteerera shanduko yemitemo yeWTO uye kufambira mberi muzvibvumirano zvekutengeserana zvedunhu (seCPTPP).

Pakazere, indasitiri yemhangura nealuminium yakatarisana neshanduko mbiri dzemitero yemitengo uye kukwidziridzwa kwemaindasitiri. Indasitiri yealuminium inowana kukura kwakasimba kuburikidza nearuminiyamu yakadzokororwa uye tekinoroji yepamusoro-soro, nepo indasitiri yemhangura inoda kutsvaga kuenzana pakati pekuchengetedza kuchengetedzwa uye njodzi dzekutengesa. Mitambo yezvematongerwo enyika inogona kuwedzera kuderera kwemitengo kwenguva pfupi, asi maitiro epasirese akanangana nekusarerekera kabhoni uye kudiwa kwekusimudzira kwekugadzira kuchiri kupa rutsigiro rwakasimba mukusimudzirwa kwenguva refu kweindasitiri.