Ukuhlaziywa kokuhlobana phakathi kwezimboni zethusi ne-aluminium kanye nokuchazwa okujulile komthelela wezinqubomgomo zentela

1. Imboni Ye-Aluminium: Ukulungiswa Kwesakhiwo Ngaphansi Kwezinqubomgomo Zentela kanye Nokwenyuka Kwe-Aluminium Esenziwe Kabusha

Inqubomgomo yentela iqhuba ukuhlelwa kabusha kwe-supply chain

Ukuphatha kukaTrump kunyuse amanani entengo yokungenisa kwe-aluminium kusuka ku-10% kuya ku-25% futhi kukhanseliwe ukukhululwa eCanada naseMexico, okube nomthelela ngqo ekuhwebeni kwe-aluminium emhlabeni jikelele. Ukuncika kwe-United States ekuthengisweni kwe-aluminium kwamanye amazwe sekufinyelele ku-44%, lapho u-76% uvela eCanada. Izinqubomgomo zentela zizoholela ekutheni i-aluminium yaseCanada iphendukele emakethe ye-EU, okukhuphula inani elinqwabelene lokuhlinzekwa kwe-EU. Idatha yomlando ibonisa ukuthi ngesikhathi uTrump ebeka intela ye-aluminium engu-10% ngesikhathi sakhe sokuqala ngo-2018, amanani entengo ye-aluminium yase-Shanghai ne-London aphinde akhuphuka ngemva kokwehla kwesikhashana, okubonisa ukuthi izinto eziyisisekelo zokuhlinzekwa kwe-aluminium kanye nesidingo zisabusa izitayela zamanani. Kodwa-ke, izindleko zentela ekugcineni zizodluliselwa ezimbonini ezisezansi nomfula e-United States, njengezimoto nezokwakha.

Ukuthuthukiswa kwemboni ye-aluminium yaseChina namathuba ekhabhoni ekabili

Njengomkhiqizi omkhulu we-aluminium emhlabeni wonke (ebalelwa ku-58% wokukhiqizwa komhlaba wonke ngo-2024), i-China iqhuba uguquko lwemboni ngesu layo “lekhabhoni ekabili”. Imboni ye-aluminiyamu egaywe kabusha iye yaba nokukhula okukhulu, ngokukhiqizwa kwamathani ayizigidi eziyisi-9.5 ngo-2024, okuwukukhula konyaka nonyaka ngama-22%, okubalelwa ku-20% wesamba esiphelele se-aluminium. Isifunda saseYangtze River Delta sisungule uchungechunge lwemboni yokugaywa kabusha kwe-aluminiyamu kadoti, amabhizinisi ahamba phambili anciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwawo kwamandla e-aluminium egaywe kabusha kuya ngaphansi kuka-5% we-aluminium eyinhloko. Imikhiqizo isetshenziswa kabanzi ku-lightweighting yezimoto (ingxenye yokusetshenziswa kwe-aluminium ezimotweni zamandla amasha inyuke isuka ku-3% iye ku-12%) kanye nezinkambu ze-photovoltaic (inani le-aluminium elisetshenziswe ku-photovoltaics lizofinyelela amathani ayizigidi ezingu-1.8 ngo-2024). Izinto ze-aluminium ezisezingeni eliphezulu zisheshisa ukushintshwa kwamanye amazwe, kanti i-aluminiyamu ye-lithium alloy yesizukulwane sesithathu ye-Southwest Aluminium Industry yase-China Aluminium isetshenziswe endizeni ye-C919. I-Nanshan Aluminium Industry isibe umphakeli oqinisekisiwe we-Boeing.

Iphethini yokunikezela nesidingo kanye nokudluliswa kwezindleko

Inqubomgomo yentela ye-aluminium yase-US ibangele ukwanda kwezindleko zokungenisa, kodwa ukukhiqizwa kwasekhaya kunzima ukugcwalisa ngokushesha igebe. Ngo-2024, ukukhiqizwa kwe-aluminium yase-US kuzoba amathani ayizigidi ezingu-8.6 kuphela, futhi ukwanda kwamandla kuvinjelwa yizindleko zamandla. Izindleko zezintela zizodluliselwa kubathengi bokugcina ngochungechunge lwezimboni, njengokwenyusa izindleko zemoto ngayinye ekukhiqizeni izimoto ezingaphezu kuka-$1000. Imboni ye-aluminium yaseShayina iphoqeleke ukuba ithuthuke ngokunemba ngokusebenzisa inqubomgomo "yophahla" yomthamo wokukhiqiza (olawulwa ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-45), futhi inzuzo ngethani ngalinye le-aluminium izofinyelela ku-1800 yuan ngo-2024, isungula umkhuba wokuthuthukiswa okunempilo embonini.

2. Imboni yethusi: Uphenyo lwentela lubangela ukunikezwa komdlalo wokuphepha nokuguquguquka kwentengo

Trump 232 Investigation and Strategic Resource Competition

Abaphathi bakaTrump bethule uphenyo lweSigaba 232 ngethusi, okuhloswe ngalo ukulihlukanisa “njengento ebaluleke kakhulu kwezokuphepha kuzwelonke” futhi okungenzeka kukhokhiswe intela kubahlinzeki abakhulu abafana neChile neCanada. I-United States incike kakhulu ekuthengisweni kwekhopha, futhi izinqubomgomo zentela zizokhuphula izindleko ezindaweni zamasu ezifana nezimoto zikagesi nama-semiconductors. Imakethe ihlangabezane nembibizane yokuthengisa, njengoba amanani entengo ekhopha aseNew York enyuke ngo-2.4% ngesikhathi esisodwa, kanye nezintengo zamasheya ezinkampani zase-US zezimayini zethusi (njengeMcMoran Copper Gold) zikhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-6% ngemva kwamahora.

Izingozi ze-global supply chain kanye nezilinganiso eziphikisanayo nezilindelwe

Uma intela engu-25% ibekwa ekhopha, ingase iqalise izinyathelo zokuphikisa ezivela kubahlinzeki abakhulu. I-Chile, njengomkhiqizi wekhopha omkhulu kunawo wonke emhlabeni, ibhekene nengozi yokwehluleka kwegridi yamandla okuhambisana nemikhawulo yentela, okungaholela ekushintshashintsheni okukhulu kwentengo yethusi yomhlaba wonke. Okuhlangenwe nakho komlando kubonise ukuthi amanani entengo eSigaba 232 ngokuvamile abangela ukuqulwa kwecala kwe-WTO nokuziphindiselela kozakwethu abahwebayo, njenge-Canada kanye ne-European Union ihlela ukukhokhisa izintela eziphindiselayo ezimpahleni zase-US, ezingase zibe nomthelela ekuthengisweni kwezolimo nokukhiqiza kwase-US.

Intengo ye-aluminium yethusi kanye nomthelela wokushintsha imakethe

Kukhona ukuhlobana okubalulekile phakathi kwezitayela zentengo yethusi ne-aluminium, ikakhulukazi lapho isidingo sengqalasizinda nokukhiqiza sizwakala sizwakala. Ukukhuphuka kwezintengo ze-aluminium kungase kuthathele indawo isidingo sekhopha, njengokushintshanisa i-aluminium esikhundleni sethusi kumkhuba wokukhanya kwezimoto. Kodwa ukungabuyiseleki kwethusi emikhakheni efana nokudluliswa kwamandla kanye nama-semiconductors kwenza inqubomgomo yayo yentela ibe nomthelela omkhulu kakhulu ochungechungeni lwezimboni zomhlaba wonke. Uma i-United States ibeka amanani entengo ekhopha, ingase yenyuse amanani entengo yethusi, kuyilapho ngokungaqondile ikhulise ukuntengantenga kwemakethe ye-aluminium ngenxa yomphumela wokuxhumana wezintengo ze-aluminium.

3. Ukubukeka Kwemboni: Amathuba kanye Nezinselele ngaphansi Kwemidlalo Yenqubomgomo

Imboni ye-Aluminium: I-aluminiyamu egaywe kabusha kanye nedrayivu yamasondo amabili asezingeni eliphezulu

Imboni ye-aluminium yaseShayina izoqhubeka nendlela "yokulawula inani eliphelele kanye nokwenza kahle kwesakhiwo", futhi kulindeleke ukuthi ukukhiqizwa kwe-aluminium esetshenziswe kabusha kuzofinyelela amathani ayizigidi ezingu-15 ngo-2028, futhi isikali semakethe ye-aluminium ephezulu (amaphaneli ezindiza kanye nezimoto) izodlula ama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-35. Amabhizinisi adinga ukunaka ukwakhiwa okuvalekile kwesistimu yokugaywa kabusha kwe-aluminiyamu kadoti (njengesakhiwo sesifunda se-Shunbo Alloy) kanye nempumelelo yezobuchwepheshe (njenge7xxx uchungechunge lwe-aluminium alloy yamandla aphezulu).

Imboni yethusi: ukuphepha kwempahla kanye nezingozi zohwebo ziyahlangana

Izinqubomgomo zentela zikaTrump zingase zisheshise ukuhlelwa kabusha kochungechunge lokuhlinzeka ngekhopha emhlabeni wonke, kanye nokwandiswa kwamandla okukhiqiza asekhaya e-United States (njengemayini yethusi yase-Rio Tinto yase-Arizona) kuzothatha isikhathi ukuqinisekiswa. Imboni yethusi yaseShayina idinga ukuqaphela ukudluliswa kwezindleko okubangelwa amanani entengo, kuyilapho ibamba amathuba okukhula kwesidingo ezindaweni ezifana nezimoto ezintsha zamandla kanye ne-AI.

Umthelela Wesikhathi Eside Wokudlala Kwenqubomgomo Emakethe

Ingqikithi yenqubomgomo yentela “ukushintshanisa izindleko zabathengi ukuze kuvikelwe izimboni”, okungase kucindezele ukusebenza kahle kwezohwebo emhlabeni ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Amabhizinisi adinga ukubiyela ubungozi ngokuthenga okuhlukahlukene kanye nesakhiwo sesifunda (njengohwebo lwezokuthutha lwaseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia), kuyilapho enaka izinguquko emithethweni ye-WTO kanye nenqubekelaphambili ezivumelwaneni zohwebo zesifunda (njenge-CPTPP).

Sekukonke, imboni yethusi ne-aluminium ibhekene noguquko olukabili lwezinqubomgomo zentela kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwezimboni. Imboni ye-aluminium ifinyelela ukukhula okuqinile ngokusebenzisa i-aluminium egaywe kabusha kanye nobuchwepheshe bezinga eliphezulu, kuyilapho imboni yethusi idinga ukufuna ibhalansi phakathi kokuphepha kokuhlinzekwa kanye nezingozi zohwebo. Imidlalo yenqubomgomo ingase ikhulise ukuguquguquka kwentengo yesikhathi esifushane, kodwa inkambiso yomhlaba wonke ebheke ekungathathini hlangothi kwekhabhoni kanye nesidingo sokuthuthukiswa kokukhiqiza kusahlinzeka ngosekelo oluqinile ekuthuthukisweni kwesikhathi eside komkhakha.