Green aluminum is rewriting pricing rules. On July 30th, the average price of comprehensive green electric aluminum in the Yangtze River was reported at 23820 yuan/ton, which was about 195 yuan higher than the average price of A00 aluminum at 23625 yuan on the same day. On one hand, the premium of low-carbon aluminum continues to expand, while on the other hand, the 45 million ton production capacity ceiling has already locked in the incremental supply of primary aluminum.

When Yunnan hydropower enters the main flood season, the supply elasticity of green aluminum is still limited by the production capacity red line, and the contradiction is further amplified. The supply side crack is being re priced by the market, making where aluminum comes from the most sensitive issue in the industry chain. In the current era of dual control of energy consumption and carbon constraints, the supply story of primary aluminum is no longer simply about production figures.

According to CCMN platform’s report on July 30th, the average price of A00 aluminum in the Yangtze River spot market was 23630 yuan/ton, an increase of 230 yuan. Under the comprehensive caliber of the Yangtze River, the average price of A00 aluminum is 23625 yuan, the East China aluminum ingot is 23630 yuan, and the Gongyi aluminum ingot is 23490 yuan. The regional price difference remains rigid. The average price of green aluminum is 23820 yuan, which is about 195 yuan higher than A00 aluminum, and it also increased by 230 yuan in a single day, with the premium not diluted. The latest price of the Shanghai Aluminum 2609 contract at noon was 23625 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan, with 252194 positions held and 171224 trading volumes. Funds continue to accumulate in the Shanghai Aluminum 2609 contract.

The production capacity ceiling of 45 million tons of electrolytic aluminum has already locked in the incremental supply of primary aluminum, and the approval of new production capacity is becoming stricter, with compliance indicators tilted towards green power areas. Against the backdrop of energy consumption constraints on thermal power aluminum, green aluminum from hydropower rich areas such as Yunnan and Sichuan has become almost the only export for the incremental supply of primary aluminum.

Green aluminum relies on the Southwest hydropower price and low-carbon attributes to obtain a stable premium, and its low-carbon qualification is continuously amplified under the European carbon border mechanism and the zero carbon supply chain demands of domestic car companies. The seasonal fluctuations in hydropower generation in Southwest China directly determine the monthly output rhythm of green aluminum, and the uncertainty on the supply side is therefore pre positioned as a climate variable. From a regional perspective, the price difference between aluminum ingots in South China and East China remains stable at around 140 yuan, reflecting structural constraints on transportation and inventory.

On the raw material side, the average price of 55% to 60% grade bauxite remains stable at 545 yuan/ton, while the high grade ore in Southwest China is priced at 465 yuan/ton. There is no shortage of ore supply. The average spot price of aluminum at the Yangtze River discount is 5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan from the previous value. The comprehensive caliber of the Yangtze River is -5 yuan/ton, with moderate spot trading. Aluminum bars and other primary processed products are strengthening simultaneously, with 6063 aluminum bars rising 200 yuan from 22400 yuan in South China, indicating a downward transmission of supply tension along the industrial chain.

It is worth noting that the price difference between green aluminum and regular aluminum has not narrowed due to the loose total volume, indicating that low-carbon attributes have become an independent pricing factor. Supply constraints have become the hardest support for the bottom of aluminum prices. Whether the premium of green aluminum can continue to widen depends on the seasonality of hydropower and the transmission of carbon costs. When the 45 million ton ceiling encounters a peak in electricity consumption, where will the next pricing variable fall? The answer still hangs in the rainy season in Yunnan.

And once the dry season advances, the supply elasticity will be further compressed, and the bottom logic of aluminum prices will only become harder. From a longer-term perspective, the supply elasticity of electrolytic aluminum has been locked in by both policies and resources, and any demand pulse will be amplified by supply rigidity into price elasticity. The market is paying a premium for scarce low-carbon supply rather than a premium for total quantity, which is a fundamental shift in the pricing logic of aluminum.