Ishishini le-alumina laseTshayina ligcine intsalela yobonelelo ngoDisemba ka-2025, imveliso ibona ukwehla okuncinci inyanga nenyanga ngenxa yokugcinwa kwexesha kunye nohlengahlengiso lokusebenza. Njengoko eli candelo lingena ku-2026, kulindeleke ukuba kuncitshiswe imveliso phakathi koxinzelelo lweendleko oluqhubekayo, nangona ukungalingani okusisiseko kwemarike kulindeleke ukuba kuqhubeke kunyaka omtsha. Olu tshintsho lolwakhiwo luyaqhubeka nokutshintsha iziseko zeendleko ze-downstream.imixokelelwane yokucubungula i-aluminium, kuquka amaphepha e-aluminium, iibha, iityhubhu, kunye namacandelo oomatshini bokuchwetheza ngokuchanekileyo.

Ngokwezibalo ezivela kwiBaichuan Yingfu, imveliso ye-alumina yaseTshayina ifikelele kwi-7.655 yezigidi zeetoni ngoDisemba ka-2025, nto leyo emele ukunyuka kwe-1.94% ngonyaka. Imveliso yemihla ngemihla emi kuma-246,900 eetoni, ukwehla okuncinci kweetoni ezingama-2,900 xa kuthelekiswa neetoni ezingama-249,800 zikaNovemba ka-2025. Nangona imveliso yemihla ngemihla yayihla rhoqo ngenyanga, imakethi yahlala ikwimeko yokugqithiswa kombane. Uhlengahlengiso lwemveliso lwaluqhutywa ikakhulu yimisebenzi yokulungisa ecwangcisiweyo: isityalo esikhulu se-alumina kwiphondo laseShanxi samisa izitofu zaso ze-calcination emva kokugqiba iinjongo zaso zemveliso yonyaka, ngelixa esinye isakhiwo kwiphondo laseHenan saqalisa ukumiswa kwemveliso ngokwezigaba ngenxa yokulungiswa okucwangcisiweyo kunye neemeko zemozulu ezimbi.

Into ebalulekileyo echaphazela ukuguquguquka kwemarike kuxinzelelo lweendleko oluqhubekayo kubavelisi be-alumina. NgoDisemba, amaxabiso e-alumina asekhaya ayehlile ngaphantsi komgca weendleko zizonke zoshishino, kwaye ilahleko zemali zixhaphakile kwimimandla ephambili yemveliso efana neShanxi neHenan. Oku kuncitshiswa kweendleko zamaxabiso kulindeleke ukuba kubangele ukuncitshiswa kwemveliso ekhethekileyo phakathi ukuya ekupheleni kukaJanuwari. Ukongeza, njengoko iikhontrakthi zokubonelela zexesha elide zika-2026 zigqitywa, abavelisi banokunciphisa ngokuzithandela amaxabiso okusebenza ukuze baphephe ukuqokelela okungakumbi kwezinto ezikhoyo, okukhokelela ekwehleni okuncinci kwamaxabiso iyonke. UBaichuan Yingfu uqikelela ukuba imveliso ye-alumina yaseTshayina iya kwehla iye kwi-7.6 yezigidi zeetoni ngoJanuwari 2026, kunye nemveliso yemihla ngemihla ephantsi kancinci kunenqanaba likaDisemba.

Intsalela yobonelelo iqinisekiswe ngakumbi yidatha yebhalansi yobonelelo-imfuno kaDisemba. Imveliso ye-alumina yodidi lwesinyithi, eyona mveliso iphambili ye-aluminium ye-electrolytic, ifikelele kwi-7.655 yezigidi zeetoni ngoDisemba. Ukudibanisa oku neetoni ezingama-224,500 ze-alumina ezingenisiweyo (ezibalwa ngokufika kwangempela endaweni yomhla wokubhengezwa kwerhafu) kunye nokuthabatha iitoni ezili-135,000 zokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe (ezibalwa ngomhla wokuhamba) kunye neetoni ezingama-200,000 zezicelo ezingezizo zesinyithi, unikezelo olusebenzayo lwe-electrolytic.imveliso ye-aluminium yamiswakwi-7.5445 yezigidi zeetoni. Njengoko imveliso ye-aluminium ye-electrolytic yaseTshayina ifikelele kwi-3.7846 yezigidi zeetoni ngoDisemba kwaye isebenzisa izinga lokusetyenziswa elisemgangathweni kushishino leetoni ezili-1.93 ze-alumina ngetoni nganye ye-aluminium ye-electrolytic, imakethi irekhode intsalela yeetoni ezingama-240,200 kule nyanga. Oku kungalingani kubonisa umkhwa obanzi kushishino lokubonelela ngeenkonzo ngaphezu kwemfuno, okubangelwe kukwanda komthamo ngaphezu kokukhula kwemveliso ye-aluminium ye-electrolytic esezantsi ethintelwe ngumgaqo-nkqubo wokuphakama komthamo weetoni ezingama-45 ezigidi.

Ukujonga phambili ngoJanuwari 2026, kulindeleke ukuba intsalela yobonelelo iqhubeke nangona incitshisiwe. UBaichuan Yingfu uqikelela ukuba imveliso ye-alumina ye-metallurgical ye-7.6 yezigidi zeetoni, kunye nokungeniswa okulindelweyo kwe-249,000 yeetoni kunye nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwe-166,500 yeetoni. Ukusetyenziswa okungekuko kwe-metallurgical kuqikelelwa kwi-190,000 yeetoni, ngelixa imveliso ye-aluminium ye-electrolytic kuqikelelwa ukuba iya kunyuka kancinci ukuya kwi-3.79 yezigidi zeetoni. Ukusebenzisa umlinganiselo wokusetyenziswa kwe-1.93 yeetoni, intsalela eqikelelweyo kaJanuwari incipha ukuya kwi-177,800 yeetoni. Olu phuculo luncinci kwibhalansi lubangelwa kukuncitshiswa kwemveliso okulindelweyo kunye nokuveliswa kwe-aluminium ye-electrolytic ephezulu kancinci, nangona kusenganelanga ukuguqula imeko yemarike yokubonelelwa ngokugqithisileyo.

Intsalela ye-alumina eqhubekayo inefuthe elibalulekileyo kulo lonke uthotho lwexabiso le-aluminium. Kubavelisi abaphezulu, ukunikezelwa ngokugqithisileyo ixesha elide kunokwenzeka ukuba kugcine amaxabiso ephantsi koxinzelelo, kukhawulezise ukuphuma kwamandla angabizi kakhulu, angasebenzi kakuhle kwaye kukhuthaze ukuhlanganiswa kweshishini. Kwabanyibilikisi be-aluminium abasezantsi, ukunikezelwa kwe-alumina okuzinzileyo nokungabizi kakhulu kuxhase imida yenzuzo enempilo, nto leyo enceda amacandelo okucubungula aphakathi nasezantsi. Njengoko u-2026 uqhubeka, eli shishini lijongene nobunzima obongezelelekileyo ukusuka ekumiselweni okucwangcisiweyo kweetoni ezingaphezu kwezigidi ezili-13 zamandla amatsha e-alumina, ngakumbi kwimimandla enxweme etyebileyo njengeGuangxi. Ngelixa ezi projekthi zintsha zinetekhnoloji ephucukileyo, enamandla aphantsi, ukukhutshwa kwazo okugxininisiweyo kunokwenza intsalela yobonelelo ibe mandundu ukuba ukukhula kwemfuno kuhlala kuthintelwe.

Kwamashishini okucubungula i-aluminium agxile kwiamashiti, imivalo, iityhubhu, kunye noomatshini abakhethekileyo,Ubonelelo oluzinzileyo lwe-alumina kunye nemeko yeendleko ezilawulwayo zibonelela ngesiseko esifanelekileyo socwangciso lwemveliso kunye namaqhinga okubeka amaxabiso. Uhlengahlengiso oluqhubekayo lwesakhiwo soshishino, oluqhutywa kukwenziwa ngcono kwamandla okukhokelwa ngumgaqo-nkqubo kunye notshintsho oluluhlaza, kulindeleke ukuba luphucule uzinzo lwekhonkco lobonelelo kwixesha eliphakathi. Njengoko imakethi idlula kwiingcinezelo ezimbini zentsalela ekhoyo kunye nokongezwa kwamandla amatsha, abachaphazelekayo kulo lonke uthotho lwexabiso baya kujonga ngokusondeleyo uhlengahlengiso lwemveliso kunye neendlela zamaxabiso ukuze bazivumelanise nemeko yemarike eguqukayo.