Imboni ye-alumina yaseShayina igcine inani elikhulu lokunikezwa kwemikhiqizo ngoDisemba 2025, kanti umkhiqizo ubonakale ukwehla okuncane inyanga nenyanga ngenxa yokulungiswa kwesizini kanye nokusebenza. Njengoba lo mkhakha ungena ku-2026, kulindeleke ukuthi kube nokuncipha okulinganiselwe kokukhiqiza phakathi kwezingcindezi zezindleko eziqhubekayo, yize ukungalingani okuyisisekelo kwemakethe kulindeleke ukuthi kuqhubeke kuze kube unyaka omusha. Lokhu kuguquguquka kwesakhiwo kuyaqhubeka nokubumba izisekelo zezindleko zesikhathi esizayo.amaketanga okucubungula i-aluminium, kufaka phakathi amashidi e-aluminium, imigoqo, amashubhu, kanye nemikhakha yokulungisa ngokunemba.

Ngokwezibalo ezivela kuBaichuan Yingfu, umkhiqizo we-alumina waseShayina ufinyelele kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-7.655 ngoDisemba 2025, okumele ukwanda okungu-1.94% unyaka nonyaka. Ukukhiqizwa okujwayelekile kwansuku zonke bekungamathani angu-246,900, ukwehla okuncane kwamathani angu-2,900 uma kuqhathaniswa namathani angu-249,800 ngoNovemba 2025. Naphezu kokwehla kwanyanga zonke komkhiqizo wansuku zonke, imakethe yahlala isesimweni sokwanda ngokweqile. Ukulungiswa kokukhiqiza kwakubangelwa kakhulu imisebenzi yokulungisa ehleliwe: isitshalo esikhulu se-alumina esifundazweni saseShanxi samisa izitofu zaso ze-calcination ngemuva kokuqeda imigomo yaso yokukhiqiza yonyaka, kanti esinye isikhungo esifundazweni saseHenan saqalisa ukumiswa kokukhiqiza ngezigaba ngenxa yokulungiswa okuhleliwe kanye nezimo zezulu ezimbi.

Isici esibalulekile esithonya ukuguquguquka kwemakethe yingcindezi yezindleko eqhubekayo kubakhiqizi be-alumina. NgoDisemba, amanani entengo ye-alumina yasekhaya ayesehle ngaphansi komugqa wezindleko eziphelele embonini, kanti ukulahlekelwa yizindleko zemali kwanda ezindaweni ezibalulekile zokukhiqiza njengeShanxi neHenan. Lokhu kuncipha kwezindleko zentengo kulindeleke ukuthi kubangele ukuncishiswa kokukhiqiza okukhethiwe maphakathi noJanuwari kuya ekupheleni kwawo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, njengoba izinkontileka zokuphakelwa zesikhathi eside zika-2026 ziqedwa, abakhiqizi bangase banciphise ngokuzithandela amazinga okusebenza ukuze bagweme ukwakheka okwengeziwe kwesitoko, okuholela ekwehleni okuncane kwamanani aphelele. UBaichuan Yingfu ubikezela ukuthi umkhiqizo we-alumina waseShayina uzokwehla ufike cishe kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-7.6 ngoJanuwari 2026, kanti ukukhiqizwa kwansuku zonke kuphansi kancane kunezinga likaDisemba.

Insalela yokunikezwa kwempahla iqinisekiswe futhi yidatha yebhalansi yokuhlinzekwa kwempahla kaDisemba. Ukukhiqizwa kwe-alumina yezinga lensimbi, okuyisisekelo sokudla kwe-aluminium ye-electrolytic, kufinyelele kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-7.655 ngoDisemba. Ukuhlanganisa lokhu namathani angu-224,500 e-alumina angenisiwe (abalwa ngokufika kwangempela kunosuku lokumenyezelwa kwentela) nokususa amathani angu-135,000 okuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe (abalwa ngosuku lokuhamba) kanye namathani angu-200,000 ezicelo ezingezona ezensimbi, ukuhlinzekwa okusebenzayo kwe-electrolytic.ukukhiqizwa kwe-aluminium kumilengamathani ayizigidi ezingu-7.5445. Njengoba umkhiqizo we-aluminium kagesi waseShayina ufinyelele kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-3.7846 ngoDisemba futhi usebenzisa izinga lokusetshenziswa elijwayelekile embonini lamathani angu-1.93 e-alumina ngethani le-aluminium kagesi, imakethe iqophe inani elingaphezulu lamathani angu-240,200 ngenyanga. Lokhu kungalingani kubonisa ukuthambekela okubanzi kwemboni kokwenyuka kwesidingo sokuhlinzekwa, umphumela wokwanda komthamo ngaphezu kokukhula kokukhiqizwa kwe-aluminium kagesi kagesi okuvinjelwe yinqubomgomo yomkhawulo womthamo wamathani ayizigidi ezingu-45.

Uma sibheka phambili ngoJanuwari 2026, kulindeleke ukuthi inani eliningi lokunikezwa liqhubeke yize liphansi. UBaichuan Yingfu uqagela ukukhiqizwa kwe-alumina ye-metallurgical engamathani ayizigidi ezingu-7.6, kuhlanganiswe nokungeniswa okulindelekile kwamathani angu-249,000 kanye nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwamathani angu-166,500. Ukusetshenziswa okungeyona i-metallurgical kulinganiselwa kumathani angu-190,000, kuyilapho umkhiqizo we-aluminium we-electrolytic ubikezelwa ukuthi uzokhuphuka kancane uye kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-3.79. Sisebenzisa isilinganiso sokusetshenziswa samathani angu-1.93, inani elilindelekile likaJanuwari lincipha liye kumathani angu-177,800. Lokhu kuthuthuka okuncane kwebhalansi kubangelwa ukuncishiswa komkhiqizo okulindelekile kanye nomkhiqizo we-aluminium we-electrolytic ophakeme kancane, yize kusanele ukuguqula isimo semakethe sokuphakelwa ngokweqile.

I-alumina eningi eqhubekayo inemiphumela ebalulekile kulo lonke uchungechunge lwenani le-aluminium. Kubakhiqizi abaphezulu, ukuphakelwa ngokweqile isikhathi eside kungenzeka kugcine amanani ephansi kwengcindezi, kusheshise ukuphuma kwamandla abiza kakhulu, angasebenzi kahle futhi kukhuthaze ukuhlanganiswa kwemboni. Kwabancibilikisi be-aluminium abasebenza ngogesi, ukuphakelwa kwe-alumina okuzinzile nokungabizi kakhulu kuye kwasekela izinzuzo ezinhle, okuzuzisa imikhakha yokucubungula ephakathi nendawo kanye nephansi. Njengoba u-2026 uqhubeka, imboni ibhekene nobunzima obengeziwe kusukela ekuqalisweni okuhleliwe kwamathani angaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-13 zamandla amasha e-alumina, ikakhulukazi ezindaweni ezisogwini ezicebile njengeGuangxi. Ngenkathi la maphrojekthi amasha equkethe ubuchwepheshe obuthuthukisiwe, obunamandla aphansi, ukukhishwa kwawo okugxilile kungakhulisa i-supply surplus uma ukukhula kwesidingo kusalokhu kuvinjelwe.

Kwamabhizinisi okucubungula i-aluminium agxile ku-amashidi, imigoqo, amashubhu, kanye nomshini wokwenza ngokwezifiso,ukuhlinzekwa kwe-alumina okuzinzile kanye nendawo yezindleko ezilawulwayo kunikeza isisekelo esihle sokuhlela ukukhiqiza kanye namasu okubeka amanani. Ukulungiswa kwesakhiwo okuqhubekayo embonini, okuqhutshwa ukwenziwa ngcono kwamandla okuqondiswa yinqubomgomo kanye nokuguqulwa okuluhlaza, kulindeleke ukuthi kuthuthukise ukuzinza kochungechunge lokuhlinzeka esikhathini esimaphakathi. Njengoba imakethe ibhekana nezingcindezi ezimbili zokwengezwa kwamandla okukhona kanye nokwengezwa kwamandla amasha, ababambiqhaza kulo lonke uchungechunge lwenani bazoqapha ngokucophelela ukulungiswa kokukhiqiza kanye nezitayela zamanani ukuze bazivumelanise nesimo semakethe esishintshayo.