Tlhahlobo ea kamano pakeng tsa liindasteri tsa koporo le aluminium le tlhaloso e tebileng ea phello ea maano a litefiso.

1. Indasteri ea Aluminium: Tokiso ea Sebopeho tlas'a Melaoana ea Litefiso le Ho phahama ha Aluminium e Recycled

Leano la litefiso le tsamaisa tlhophiso ea phepelo ea thepa

Tsamaiso ea Trump e phahamisitse litefiso tsa ho kenya aluminium ho tloha ho 10% ho isa ho 25% mme e hlakotse litokollo bakeng sa Canada le Mexico, e amang khoebo ea lefats'e ea aluminium ka kotloloho. Ho itšetleha ha United States ka thepa ea aluminium e tsoang kantle ho naha ho fihlile 44%, eo 76% ea eona e tsoang Canada. Melao ea litefiso e tla lebisa ho aluminium ea Canada e fetohelang 'marakeng oa EU, e leng ho mpefatsang phaello ea phepelo ea EU. Lintlha tsa nalane li bonts'a hore ha Trump e beha tefiso ea aluminium ea 10% nakong ea nako ea hae ea pele ka 2018, litheko tsa aluminium tsa Shanghai le London li ile tsa phahama kamora ho theoha ha nako e khuts'oane, ho bonts'a hore phepelo ea lefats'e le litlhoko tsa mantlha li ntse li laola mekhoa ea litheko. Leha ho le joalo, litšenyehelo tsa litefiso li tla qetella li fetiselitsoe ho liindasteri tse tlaase United States, tse kang likoloi le kaho.

Ntlafatso ea indasteri ea aluminium ea China le menyetla ea khabone e habeli

E le mohlahisi e moholo ka ho fetisisa lefatšeng oa aluminium (e ikarabellang bakeng sa 58% ea tlhahiso ea lefats'e ka 2024), China e tsamaisa phetoho ea indasteri ka leano la eona la "khabone e habeli". Indasteri ea aluminium e nchafalitsoeng e bile le kholo e phatlohileng, ka tlhahiso ea lithane tse limilione tse 9.5 ka 2024, keketseho ea selemo le selemo ea 22%, e leng karolo ea 20% ea phepelo eohle ea aluminium. Sebaka sa Delta sa Yangtze River Delta se thehile indasteri e felletseng ea lisebelisoa tsa aluminium ea litšila, 'me likhoebo tse etelletseng pele li fokotsa tšebeliso ea matla ea aluminium e sebelisoang hape ho isa tlase ho 5% ea aluminium ea mantlha. Lihlahisoa li sebelisoa haholo ho khanya ea likoloi (karolo ea tšebeliso ea aluminium likoloing tse ncha tsa matla e eketsehile ho tloha ho 3% ho ea ho 12%) le masimo a photovoltaic (tekanyo ea aluminium e sebelisoang ho photovoltaics e tla fihla ho lithane tse limilione tse 1.8 ka 2024). Lisebelisoa tsa aluminium tse phahameng li potlakisa ho kenngoa ha thepa, 'me moloko oa boraro oa aluminium lithium alloy ea Southwest Aluminium Industry ea China Aluminium e sebelisitsoe sefofaneng sa C919. Indasteri ea Aluminium ea Nanshan e fetohile morekisi ea netefalitsoeng ke Boeing.

Mokhoa oa phepelo le tlhokahalo le phetiso ea litšenyehelo

Leano la litefiso tsa aluminium tsa US le entse hore ho be le keketseho ea litšenyehelo tsa thepa, empa tlhahiso ea malapeng e thata ho potlakela ho tlatsa lekhalo. Ka 2024, tlhahiso ea aluminium ea US e tla ba lithane tse limilione tse 8.6 feela, 'me katoloso ea matla e hatelloa ke litšenyehelo tsa matla. Litsenyehelo tsa litefiso li tla fetisetsoa ho bareki ba ho qetela ka ketane ea indasteri, joalo ka ho eketsa litšenyehelo tsa koloi e 'ngoe le e 'ngoe ea ho etsa likoloi ka $1000. Indasteri ea aluminium ea Chaena e qobelletsoe ho ntshetsa pele ka mokhoa o nepahetseng ka leano la "siling" la matla a tlhahiso (e laoloang ho lithane tse limilione tse 45), 'me phaello ka thane e le 'ngoe ea aluminium e tla fihla ho 1800 yuan ka 2024, ho theha mokhoa oa tsoelo-pele o phetseng hantle indastering.

2. Indasteri ea koporo: Lipatlisiso tsa litefiso li etsa hore ho be le papali ea ts'ireletso le ho fetoha ha theko

Tlhōlisano ea Lipatlisiso tsa Trump 232 le Strategic Resource Competition

Tsamaiso ea Trump e hlahisitse lipatlisiso tsa Karolo ea 232 mabapi le koporo, ka sepheo sa ho e khetholla e le "thepa ea bohlokoa ea ts'ireletso ea naha" mme e ka beha litefiso ho barekisi ba ka sehloohong ba kang Chile le Canada. United States e itšetlehile haholo ka koporo e tsoang kantle ho naha, 'me maano a litefiso a tla nyolla litšenyehelo libakeng tsa maano tse kang likoloi tsa motlakase le li-semiconductors. Mmaraka o bile le ho potlaka ho rekisoa, 'me litheko tsa bokamoso ba koporo tsa New York li nyoloha ka 2.4% ka nako e le ngoe, le litheko tsa setoko sa lik'hamphani tsa merafo ea koporo tsa US (joalo ka McMoran Copper Gold) li nyoloha ka 6% kamora lihora.

Likotsi tsa lefats'e la phepelo ea thepa le litebello tsa lithibelo

Haeba tefiso ea 25% e behoa koporo, e ka 'na ea tsosa mehato e khahlanong le barekisi ba ka sehloohong. Chile, joalo ka naha e kholo ka ho fetisisa lefatšeng e rekisang koporo kantle ho naha, e tobane le kotsi ea ho putlama ha marang-rang a motlakase hammoho le lithibelo tsa litefiso, tse ka lebisang ho feto-fetoha ho hoholo ha litheko tsa koporo lefatšeng ka bophara. Boiphihlelo ba nalane bo bonts'itse hore litefiso tsa Karolo ea 232 hangata li baka linyeoe tsa WTO le boiphetetso ho tsoa ho balekane ba khoebo, joalo ka Canada le European Union e rera ho beha litefiso tsa boiphetetso ho thepa ea US, e ka amang thepa ea temo le tlhahiso ea US kantle ho naha.

Khokahano ea theko ea aluminium ea koporo le phello ea phetoho ea 'maraka

Ho na le kamano e kholo lipakeng tsa mekhoa ea theko ea koporo le aluminium, haholo ha tlhokahalo ea meaho le tlhahiso e ntse e phahama. Ho phahama ha litheko tsa aluminium ho ka nkela tlhokahalo ea koporo sebaka, joalo ka ho nkela aluminium sebaka bakeng sa koporo molemong oa mabone a koloi. Empa ho se nkeloe sebaka ha koporo mafapheng a kang phetiso ea matla le li-semiconductors ho etsa hore pholisi ea eona ea litefiso e be le phello e tebileng ho ketane ea indasteri ea lefats'e. Haeba United States e beha litefiso tsa koporo, e ka nyolla litheko tsa koporo lefatšeng ka bophara, ha ka tsela e sa tobang e mpefatsa ho fetoha ha 'maraka oa aluminium ka lebaka la phello ea khokahano ea litheko tsa aluminium.

3. Maikutlo a Indasteri: Menyetla le Liphephetso tlas'a Papali ea Leano

Indasteri ea aluminium: Aluminium e sebelisitsoeng hape le ho khanna ka mabili a mabeli

Indasteri ea aluminium ea Chaena e tla tsoela pele ka tsela ea "taolo ea palo eohle le ntlafatso ea meralo", 'me ho lebeletsoe hore tlhahiso ea aluminium e nchafalitsoeng e tla fihla ho lithane tse limilione tse 15 ka 2028,' me tekanyo ea 'maraka oa aluminium ea boemo bo phahameng (lifofane le liphanele tsa likoloi) e tla feta li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 35. Likhoebo li hloka ho ela hloko moaho o koalehileng oa sistimi ea litšila ea aluminium (joalo ka sebopeho sa sebaka sa Shunbo Alloy) le likhatelopele tsa theknoloji (joalo ka7xxx letoto la motsoako oa aluminium oa matla a phahameng).

Indasteri ea koporo: ts'ireletso ea phepelo le likotsi tsa khoebo li teng hammoho

Maano a Trump a tefiso a ka potlakisa tokiso bocha ea phepelo ea koporo lefatšeng ka bophara, 'me katoloso ea matla a tlhahiso ea lehae United States (joalo ka morafo oa koporo oa Rio Tinto's Arizona) ho tla nka nako ho netefatsoa. Indasteri ea koporo ea Chaena e hloka ho falimehela phetiso ea litšenyehelo e bakoang ke litefiso, ha e ntse e nka menyetla ea kholo ea tlhokahalo libakeng tse kang likoloi tse ncha tsa matla le AI.

Kameho ea Nako e Telele ea Papali ea Leano Mmarakeng

Moko oa leano la litefiso ke "ho fapanyetsana litšenyehelo tsa bareki bakeng sa ts'ireletso ea indasteri", e ka 'nang ea hatella katleho ea khoebo ea lefats'e ka nako e telele. Likhoebo li hloka ho thibela likotsi ka mefuta e fapaneng ea theko le sebopeho sa libaka (joalo ka khoebo ea lipalangoang tsa Asia Boroa-bochabela), ha li ntse li ela hloko liphetoho tsa melao ea WTO le tsoelopele litumellanong tsa khoebo tsa libaka (joalo ka CPTPP).

Ka kakaretso, indasteri ea koporo le aluminium e tobane le phetoho e habeli ea maano a litefiso le ntlafatso ea indasteri. Indasteri ea aluminium e finyella khōlo e tsitsitseng ka aluminium e nchafalitsoeng le theknoloji e phahameng, ha indasteri ea koporo e hloka ho batla ho leka-lekana pakeng tsa tšireletso ea phepelo le likotsi tsa khoebo. Lipapali tsa maano li ka mpefatsa ho fetoha ha theko ea nakoana, empa mokhoa oa lefats'e o lebisang ho se nke lehlakore ha carbon le tlhokahalo ea ntlafatso ea tlhahiso ea thepa e ntse e fana ka tšehetso e tiileng bakeng sa nts'etsopele ea nako e telele ea indasteri.