Uhlalutyo lonxulumano phakathi kwamashishini obhedu kunye ne-aluminiyam kunye nokutolikwa okunzulu kwefuthe lemigaqo-nkqubo yerhafu

1. Umzi mveliso weAluminiyam: Uhlengahlengiso loLwakhiwo phantsi kwemigaqo-nkqubo yoRhafu kunye nokuNyuswa kweAluminiyam eRecycled

Umgaqo-nkqubo weRhafu uqhuba uhlengahlengiso lwesixokelelwano sobonelelo

Ulawulo lukaTrump luphakamise iirhafu zokungenisa i-aluminium ukusuka kwi-10% ukuya kwi-25% kunye nokurhoxisa ukukhululwa eCanada naseMexico, okuchaphazela ngokuthe ngqo urhwebo lwe-aluminium yehlabathi jikelele. Ukuxhomekeka kwe-United States kwiimpahla ze-aluminium zifikelele kwi-44%, apho i-76% ivela eCanada. Imigaqo-nkqubo yeRhafu iya kukhokelela ekujikeni kwe-aluminium yaseCanada kwimarike ye-EU, inyusa intsalela yonikezelo lwe-EU. Idatha yembali ibonisa ukuba xa i-Trump ibeka i-10% yentlawulo ye-aluminium ngexesha lakhe lokuqala kwi-2018, amaxabiso e-aluminium yase-Shanghai kunye ne-London aphinde abuyele emva kokuhla kwexesha elifutshane, ebonisa ukuba unikezelo lwehlabathi kunye nemfuno ezisisiseko zisalawula ukuhamba kwexabiso. Nangona kunjalo, ixabiso leentlawulo ekugqibeleni liya kudluliselwa kumashishini asezantsi e-United States, afana neemoto kunye nokwakha.

Ukuphuculwa kweshishini le-aluminium yaseTshayina kunye namathuba amabini ekhabhoni

Njengowona mvelisi mkhulu we-aluminiyam wehlabathi (ebalelwa kuma-58% emveliso yehlabathi ngo-2024), i-China iqhuba inguqu kushishino ngesicwangciso sayo “sekhabhoni ezimbini”. Ushishino lwe-aluminiyam oluhlaziyiweyo luye lwafumana ukukhula okuqhumayo, kunye nemveliso ye-9.5 yezigidi zeetoni kwi-2024, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka we-22%, kubalwa i-20% yokunikezelwa kwe-aluminium iyonke. Ummandla weDelta yoMlambo iYangtze wenze ikhonkco elipheleleyo le-aluminiyam yokubuyisela inkunkuma esetyenzisiweyo, kunye namashishini aphambili anciphisa ukusetyenziswa kwawo kwamandla ealuminiyam esetyenzisiweyo ukuya ngaphantsi kwe-5% ye-aluminiyam yokuqala. Iimveliso zisetyenziswa ngokubanzi kwi-automotive lightweighting (umlinganiselo wokusetyenziswa kwe-aluminium kwizithuthi zamandla amatsha uye wanda ukusuka kwi-3% ukuya kwi-12%) kunye nemimandla ye-photovoltaic (isixa se-aluminium esetyenziswe kwi-photovoltaics siya kufikelela kwi-1.8 yezigidi zeetoni kwi-2024). Izinto eziphezulu ze-aluminium eziphakamileyo zikhawuleza ukutshintshwa, kunye nesizukulwana sesithathu se-aluminium lithium alloy ye-Southwest Aluminium Industry ye-China Aluminium isetyenziswe kwi-aircraft ye-C919. Ishishini leAluminiyam laseNanshan libe ngumboneleli oqinisekisiweyo weBoeing.

Ipatheni yobonelelo kunye nemfuno kunye nothumelo lweendleko

Umgaqo-nkqubo wentlawulo ye-aluminium yase-US uye wabangela ukunyuka kweendleko zokungenisa, kodwa ukuveliswa kwemveliso yasekhaya kunzima ukugcwalisa ngokukhawuleza i-gap. Ngo-2024, imveliso ye-aluminium yase-US iya kuba yi-8.6 yezigidi zeetoni kuphela, kwaye ukwandiswa kwamandla kunyanzeliswa ngeendleko zamandla. Iindleko zoluhlu lweerhafu ziya kuthunyelwa kubathengi bokugqibela ngekhonkco lemizi-mveliso, njengokunyusa iindleko zesithuthi ngasinye kwimveliso yeemoto ngaphezulu kwe-1000 yeedola. Imboni ye-aluminium yaseTshayina iye yanyanzeliswa ukuba iphuhlise ngokuchanekileyo ngokusebenzisa umgaqo-nkqubo "wesilingi" womthamo wokuvelisa (olawulwa kwiitoni ze-45 yezigidi), kwaye inzuzo ngetoni ye-aluminium iya kufikelela kwi-yuan eyi-1800 kwi-2024, ukuseka uphuhliso olunempilo kwishishini.

2. Ushishino lobhedu: Uphando lweRhafu lubangela unikezelo lomdlalo wokhuseleko kunye nokuhla kwexabiso

Trump 232 UPhando kunye noKhuphiswano lweSibonelelo soBuchule

Ulawulo lweTrump luqalise uphando lweCandelo le-232 ngobhedu, lujolise ukuluhluza "njengezinto ezibaluleke kakhulu zokhuseleko lwesizwe" kwaye zinokuthi zibeke iirhafu kubaboneleli abakhulu njengeChile neCanada. I-United States inokuxhomekeka okuphezulu ekuthengisweni kobhedu, kwaye imigaqo-nkqubo yerhafu iya kunyusa iindleko kwiindawo ezicwangcisiweyo ezifana nezithuthi zombane kunye ne-semiconductors. Imarike iye yafumana ukukhawuleza ukuthengisa, kunye namaxabiso exesha elizayo e-New York copper enyuka nge-2.4% ngexesha elinye, kunye namaxabiso emasheya eenkampani zemigodi yobhedu yase-US (njengeMcMoran Copper Gold) enyuka ngaphezu kwe-6% emva kweeyure.

Imingcipheko yekhonkco lonikezelo lwehlabathi kunye nokulinganisa okulindelweyo

Ukuba i-25% yentlawulo ibekwe kwikopolo, inokubangela amanyathelo achasene nababoneleli abakhulu. I-Chile, njengelona lizwe lithumela ngaphandle ubhedu likhulu ehlabathini, lijongene nomngcipheko wokungaphumeleli kwegridi yombane kunye nezithintelo zerhafu, ezinokukhokelela kuguquko olumandla kumaxabiso ekopolo yehlabathi. Amava embali abonise ukuba imirhumo yeCandelo lama-232 ihlala ixhokonxa i-WTO kunye nempindezelo evela kumaqabane arhwebayo, afana neCanada kunye ne-European Union eceba ukumisela imirhumo yempindezelo kwimpahla yase-US, enokuthi ibe nefuthe e-US kwezolimo kunye nemveliso yokuthengisa kumazwe angaphandle.

Uqhagamshelo lwexabiso le-aluminiyam yobhedu kunye nesiphumo sokutshintshwa kwemarike

Kukho ulungelelwaniso olubalulekileyo phakathi kweentsingiselo zexabiso lobhedu kunye ne-aluminium, ngakumbi xa imfuno yeziseko zophuhliso kunye nemveliso ihambelana. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-aluminiyam kunokutshintsha ngokuyinxenye imfuno yobhedu, njengokutshintsha i-aluminiyam yobhedu kwindlela yokukhanya kwemoto. Kodwa ukungafumaneki endaweni yobhedu kwiinkalo ezifana nokuhanjiswa kwamandla kunye ne-semiconductors kwenza ukuba umgaqo-nkqubo werhafu ube nempembelelo enzulu ngakumbi kwikhonkco lemizi-mveliso yehlabathi. Ukuba iUnited States ibeka imirhumo kubhedu, inokuthi inyuse amaxabiso obhedu kwihlabathi, ngelixa ngokungathanga ngqo inyusa ukuguquguquka kwemarike ye-aluminium ngenxa yesiphumo sonxibelelwano samaxabiso e-aluminium.

3. Imbonakalo yoShishino: Amathuba kunye nemingeni phantsi koMgaqo-nkqubo wokuGala

Umzi-mveliso we-aluminiyam: I-aluminiyam esetyenzisiweyo kunye ne-high-end dual wheel drive

Ishishini le-aluminium yaseTshayina liya kuqhubeka nendlela "yolawulo lobuninzi kunye nokulungiswa kwesakhiwo", kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ukuveliswa kwe-aluminium esetyenzisiweyo kuya kufikelela kwiitoni ezizigidi ezili-15 ngo-2028, kunye nomlinganiselo wemarike ye-aluminium ephezulu (i-aviation kunye neepaneli zemoto) iya kudlula i-35 yezigidigidi zeeyuan. Amashishini kufuneka anike ingqwalasela kulwakhiwo oluvaliweyo lwenkqubo yokurisayikilisha yealuminiyam (efana noyilo lwengingqi yeShunbo Alloy) kunye nokuphumelela kwethekhinoloji (efana ne7xxx series high-amandla aluminiyam ingxubevange).

Ishishini lobhedu: ukubonelela ngokhuseleko kunye nemingcipheko yorhwebo ikhona

Imigaqo-nkqubo kaTrump yerhafu inokukhawulezisa uhlengahlengiso lwekhonkco lokubonelela ngobhedu lwehlabathi, kunye nokwandiswa komthamo wemveliso yasekhaya e-United States (njengomgodi wobhedu wase-Rio Tinto wase-Arizona) kuya kuthatha ixesha ukuqinisekisa. Ishishini lobhedu laseTshayina kufuneka liphapheme malunga nokuhanjiswa kweendleko ezibangelwa yintlawulo, ngelixa lithatha amathuba okukhula kweemfuno kwiindawo ezifana nezithuthi zamandla amatsha kunye ne-AI.

Impembelelo yexesha elide yoMgaqo-nkqubo wokuGala kwiMarike

Undoqo womgaqo-nkqubo werhafu kukuba "utshintshiselwano ngeendleko zabathengi ukuze ukhuseleke kwimizi-mveliso", enokuthi icinezele impumelelo yorhwebo lwehlabathi ekuhambeni kwexesha. Amashishini kufuneka athintele imingcipheko ngokuthengwa kwezinto ezahlukeneyo kunye nokuhlelwa kwengingqi (ezifana norhwebo lwezothutho lwe-Asia-mpuma ye-Asia), ngelixa kuqwalaselwa utshintsho kwimithetho ye-WTO kunye nenkqubela phambili kwizivumelwano zorhwebo zengingqi (ezifana ne-CPTPP).

Lilonke, ishishini lobhedu kunye ne-aluminiyam lijongene neenguqu ezimbini zemigaqo-nkqubo yerhafu kunye nokuphuculwa kwemizi-mveliso. Ishishini le-aluminium lifezekisa ukukhula okuzinzileyo ngokusebenzisa i-aluminium ehlaziyiweyo kunye ne-teknoloji ephezulu, ngelixa i-industry yethusi kufuneka ifune ukulingana phakathi kokhuseleko lokubonelela kunye neengozi zorhwebo. Imidlalo yomgaqo-nkqubo inokwandisa ukuguquguquka kwexabiso lexesha elifutshane, kodwa imeko yehlabathi ekungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni kunye nemfuno yokuphuculwa kwemveliso isabonelela ngenkxaso eqinileyo kuphuhliso lwexesha elide loshishino.