On the afternoon of May 26th, as the A-share market fluctuated and adjusted, the aluminum industry sector suddenly rose strongly, staging a “counter trend carnival”. Among them, the industry leader Aluminum Corporation of China (601600), with a market value of nearly 200 billion yuan, was sealed off by the daily limit up, with over 500000 orders closed at one point. At the end of the day, 260000 orders were still firmly sealed off, and the enthusiasm for fundraising was high.

Individual stocks within the sector rose synchronously, with a sharp upward trend. Nanshan Aluminum and Hongqiao Holdings saw an increase of over 8%. Yunlv Group and Tianshan Aluminum Industry rose by over 7%. Zhongfu Industrial and Shenhuo Shares also surged by over 6%. The Hong Kong stock market also strengthened in tandem, with Nanshan Aluminum International skyrocketing by nearly 15% and China Aluminum Industry rising by about 9%. The aluminum sector became the most eye-catching main line in the market on that day.

The collective outbreak of aluminum industry stocks this time was triggered by the heavyweight news that Guinea plans to implement bauxite export controls in June. As the world’s largest producer of bauxite, Guinea supplies over one-third of the world’s bauxite and is the core source of China’s bauxite imports (accounting for 74% of China’s imports). According to the Minister of Mines of Guinea, this regulation aims to reverse the low price pattern of bauxite by controlling export volume. The market expects its annual export volume to decrease from 183 million tons in 2025 to 150 million tons, a decrease of 18%, directly triggering the expectation of global bauxite supply tightening. As soon as the news came out, the price of alumina futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged by more than 5% within the day, and the expectation of price increases in the industry chain quickly fermented.

It is worth noting that in the face of intense market reactions, multiple aluminum companies have responded urgently and downplayed the impact of the incident. Nanshan Aluminum Industry stated that the company’s imported minerals mainly come from Australia, with a very low proportion of minerals from Guinea, and the impact of this policy is limited. Yunlv Corporation stated that bauxite is mainly purchased domestically, with low dependence on overseas sources; Aluminum Corporation of China responded that the company’s self-sufficiency rate for bauxite is 70%, and production and operation in the Guinea mining area are normal, with a stable supply chain.

The calm response of physical enterprises contrasts sharply with the radical reaction of the capital market. Essentially, this speculation by funds is not based on the current reality, but on the game of future supply-demand gaps and price expectations. If Guinea’s export control is implemented, it will directly reshape the global bauxite supply pattern, push up mineral prices and alumina costs, and then transmit to the electrolytic aluminum end. Aluminum companies with high self-sufficiency rates and stable resource channels will benefit significantly, which becomes the core logic of capital layout.

In the short term, the details of Guinea’s policy implementation, domestic aluminum enterprise raw material inventory, and subsequent shipping rhythm will become key variables affecting the trend of the sector. The strong market trend of the aluminum industry sector is essentially a valuation reassessment driven by the expectation of resource scarcity, and we need to be vigilant about the volatility risk caused by the expected fulfillment of expectations.

On the afternoon of May 26th, as the A-share market fluctuated and adjusted, the aluminum industry sector suddenly rose strongly, staging a “counter trend carnival”. Among them, the industry leader Aluminum Corporation of China (601600), with a market value of nearly 200 billion yuan, was sealed off by the daily limit up, with over 500000 orders closed at one point. At the end of the day, 260000 orders were still firmly sealed off, and the enthusiasm for fundraising was high.

Individual stocks within the sector rose synchronously, with a sharp upward trend. Nanshan Aluminum and Hongqiao Holdings saw an increase of over 8%; Yunlv Group and Tianshan Aluminum Industry rose by over 7%. Zhongfu Industrial and Shenhuo Shares also surged by over 6%. The Hong Kong stock market also strengthened in tandem, with Nanshan Aluminum International skyrocketing by nearly 15% and China Aluminum Industry rising by about 9%. The aluminum sector became the most eye catching main line in the market on that day.

The collective outbreak of aluminum industry stocks this time was triggered by the heavyweight news that Guinea plans to implement bauxite export controls in June. As the world’s largest producer of bauxite, Guinea supplies over one-third of the world’s bauxite and is the core source of China’s bauxite imports (accounting for 74% of China’s imports). According to the Minister of Mines of Guinea, this regulation aims to reverse the low price pattern of bauxite by controlling export volume. The market expects its annual export volume to decrease from 183 million tons in 2025 to 150 million tons, a decrease of 18%, directly triggering the expectation of global bauxite supply tightening. As soon as the news came out, the price of alumina futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged by more than 5% within the day, and the expectation of price increases in the industry chain quickly fermented.

It is worth noting that in the face of intense market reactions, multiple aluminum companies have responded urgently and downplayed the impact of the incident. Nanshan Aluminum Industry stated that the company’s imported minerals mainly come from Australia, with a very low proportion of minerals from Guinea, and the impact of this policy is limited. Yunlv Corporation stated that bauxite is mainly purchased domestically, with low dependence on overseas sources. Aluminum Corporation of China responded that the company’s self-sufficiency rate for bauxite is 70%, and production and operation in the Guinea mining area are normal, with a stable supply chain.

The calm response of physical enterprises contrasts sharply with the radical reaction of the capital market. Essentially, this speculation by funds is not based on the current reality, but on the game of future supply demand gaps and price expectations. If Guinea’s export control is implemented, it will directly reshape the global bauxite supply pattern, push up mineral prices and alumina costs, and then transmit to the electrolytic aluminum end. Aluminum companies with high self-sufficiency rates and stable resource channels will benefit significantly, which becomes the core logic of capital layout.

In the short term, the details of Guinea’s policy implementation, domestic aluminum enterprise raw material inventory, and subsequent shipping rhythm will become key variables affecting the trend of the sector. The strong market trend of the aluminum industry sector is essentially a valuation reassessment driven by the expectation of resource scarcity, and we need to be vigilant about the volatility risk caused by the expected fulfillment of expectations.