A ranar 23 ga Maris, 2026, kasuwar aluminum ta cikin gida ta fuskanci koma baya mai yawa, kuma tsammanin amfani da "zinariya, azurfa, da huɗu" na gargajiya ya wargaje gaba ɗaya. Kasuwar ta fuskanci ƙalubale sosai sakamakon "rashin ƙarfi a lokacin kololuwar", kuma farashin wuri da na gaba sun yi rauni a lokaci guda, wanda ya haifar da sanyin ra'ayin bullish.

Farashin gaba da na ƙasa sun faɗi tare, inda manyan farashin ke faɗuwa ɗaya bayan ɗaya

A wannan rana, babban kwangilar Shanghai Aluminum ta faɗi sosai a lokacin ciniki, da zarar ta faɗi ƙasa da alamar lamba ta yuan 23300/ton, tare da raguwar yau da kullun ta wuce 1.4%, wanda ke nuna raunin yanayin kasuwa. A lokaci guda, matsakaicin farashin tabo na ingots na aluminum na cikin gida ya ragu gaba ɗaya, yana faɗuwa ƙasa da babban farashin tunani na yuan 24000/ton. Kasuwar tana da kyakkyawan yanayin jira da gani, kuma yanayin ciniki ya kasance mai sauƙi.

Babban jari tare da rashin ƙarfi na buƙata, wadata da kuma rashin daidaiton buƙata ya zama babban cikas

Babban dalilin da ya haifar da raguwar kasuwar aluminum a yanzu yana cikin rashin daidaito tsakanin wadata da buƙata. Kayayyakin da ake samu daga ingots na aluminum a cikin gida sun karu zuwa tan miliyan 1.339, wanda ya kai wani sabon matsayi a cikin kusan shekaru biyar, kuma babban kayan yana ci gaba da danne hauhawar farashin. Duk da haka, ɓangaren masu amfani da kayayyaki na ƙasa yana ci gaba da aiki ba tare da ƙarfi ba, kuma sakin buƙatun yanayi na musamman ya gaza yadda ake tsammani. Babban bambanci tsakanin babban kaya da ƙarancin buƙata ya zama babban abin da ke jawo raguwar farashin aluminum.

Matsin lamba da yawa na macro, ƙarfafa dalar Amurka yana danne ɓangaren da ba na ƙarfe ba

Muhalli na macro kuma yana da mummunan tasiri akanKasuwar aluminumTashin hankalin da ke faruwa tsakanin Amurka da Iran kwanan nan ya haifar da hauhawar farashin danyen mai na duniya da kuma kara tsananta damuwar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a kasuwa; Sakamakon haka, an dage tsammanin rage darajar riba na Babban Bankin Tarayya har zuwa karshen kwata na uku ko ma kwata na hudu. Ƙarfafa ma'aunin dala na Amurka yana ci gaba da matsa lamba ga nau'ikan ƙarfe marasa ƙarfe da ake sayarwa a dalar Amurka, kuma kasuwar aluminum ba za ta iya guje wa jan hankalin ɓangaren ba.

Bambancin asali na ciki da waje, matsin lamba na cikin gida, rage yawan samar da kayayyaki a ƙasashen waje da kuma rage yawan kayan da ake samarwa

Tushen kasuwar aluminum ta duniya yana nuna babban tsari na bambance-bambancen ciki da waje. A ɓangaren ƙasashen waje, rikicin Gabas ta Tsakiya yana ci gaba da ƙaruwa, inda kamfanonin aluminum da yawa na ƙasashen waje kamar Qatar Aluminum da Bahrain Aluminum ke fuskantar raguwar samar da kayayyaki, tare da raguwar jimillar tan miliyan ɗaya. Kayayyakin aluminum na LME suna ci gaba da raguwa zuwa tan 433000, wanda ke nuna babban yanayin ƙara yawan wadatar kayayyaki a ƙasashen waje.

A gefe guda kuma, a ƙasar Sin, matsin lambar da ake fuskanta game da yawan kaya bai warware ba, kuma kamfanonin sarrafa kayayyaki na ƙasa sun fuskanci matsin lamba sosai sakamakon sauyin farashin aluminum, wanda ya haifar da matsin lamba mai tsanani a kan ribar da ake samu da kuma ƙarancin sha'awar siye. Yawan karɓar oda daga kamfanonin sake amfani da shara ya ragu zuwa lokacin daskarewa, yana ci gaba da tafiyar da sayayya mai mahimmanci. Kasuwar aluminum da aka yi datti tana fuskantar tasirin manufar "juya lissafin kuɗi", kuma samar da kayayyaki masu yawo yana ci gaba da yin tsauri. Babban kewayon aluminum da aka karya (farashin ruwa) yana canzawa ƙasa da kusan yuan 2020-20800/ton (ban da haraji), kuma babu wata alama ta farfaɗowa a halin yanzu.

Sauya dabarun ciniki, tsammanin koma bayan tattalin arziki ya maye gurbin ƙimar siyasa

A halin yanzu, manufar ciniki a kasuwar aluminum ta fuskanci babban sauyi, daga kawai yin hasashe kan farashin haɗari na siyasa zuwa ciniki a hankali na tsammanin koma bayan tattalin arziki na duniya. Babban farashin mai, yayin da yake ƙara matsin lamba kan hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, shi ma ya haifar da damuwa a kasuwa game da raguwar ci gaban tattalin arzikin duniya. Sha'awar haɗarin jari ya yi sanyi sosai, kuma kasuwar aluminum za ta ci gaba da fuskantar gwaje-gwajen matsin lamba da yawa a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci.