Citigroup ta fitar da wata alama mai karfi a cikin sabon rahoton binciken kayayyaki, tana mai cewa kasuwar aluminum ta duniya tana fuskantar mafi girman ci gaba a cikin shekaru sama da 50 saboda girgizar kayayyaki kwatsam, kuma ta kara hasashen farashinta sosai.

Manazarcin bankin ya nuna cewa rikicin siyasa a Gabas ta Tsakiya ya haifar da "tasirin da ba a taɓa gani ba" ga sarkar samar da aluminum ta duniya, wanda hakan ya sanya sama da tan miliyan 3 na ƙarfin samar da kayayyaki na shekara-shekara cikin haɗari. Dangane da raunin buƙatar kasuwa, kayan da aka riga aka ƙayyade a duniya sun riga sun kai matakin mafi ƙanƙanta a cikin kimanin shekaru 55, kuma ƙarfin rashin aiki a masana'antu ya kusan ƙarewa, wannan girman katsewar samar da kayayyaki ya tura kasuwa cikin gaggawa cikin yanayin "ƙarancin tsari".

Rahoton ya yi hasashen cewa ko da idan aka yi la'akari da rage buƙata ta hanyar raguwar tattalin arziki, har yanzu za a sami gibin wadata na kimanin tan miliyan 2.7 a kasuwar aluminum ta duniya nan da shekarar 2026. Wannan zai rage yawan kayayyaki a cikin watanni 6 zuwa 12 masu zuwa, wanda hakan zai kawo koma baya a tarihi. Dangane da wannan, Citigroup yana sa ran farashin aluminum zai ci gaba da hauhawa zuwa dala $4000 a kowace tan a cikin watanni uku masu zuwa, kuma yana sa ran matsakaicin farashin zai ci gaba da kasancewa a wannan matakin a rabin na biyu na 2026. A cikin yanayi mafi kyau, farashin aluminum na iya ma tashi zuwa dala $5350 a kowace tan nan da shekarar 2027.

Citigroup ya yi gargaɗin cewa wannan matsalar samar da kayayyaki na iya haifar da "mummunan sakamako" ga masana'antu da suka dogara da aluminum sosai, kamar gini, marufi, sufuri, da makamashi mai sabuntawa, wanda hakan ke ƙara farashin kayayyaki da yawa.

Babu shakka rahoton Citigroup ya jefar da "bam" a kasuwa, tare da ra'ayoyinsa masu tsattsauran ra'ayi da hasashensa masu ƙarfin hali waɗanda ba kasafai ake samu ba a cikin 'yan shekarun nan.

Babban manufar wannan rahoton ita ce sanya wani mummunan girgizar tattalin arziki na ɗan gajeren lokaci, mai tsanani a fannin tattalin arziki, a kan tsarin kasuwa na dogon lokaci tare da ƙarancin kaya da ƙarancin ƙarfin aiki, wanda hakan ke haifar da ƙarshen hauhawar farashi mai "ban mamaki". Wannan dabarar tana da ƙarfi, amma kuma tana haifar da zurfafa bincike a kasuwa game da zato da kuma tushenta.

Citigroup ya haɗa kai tsaye da haɗarin samar da tan miliyan 3 a cikin tsarin ƙarancin. Duk da haka, yanayin siyasa yana canzawa koyaushe, kuma akwai babban rashin tabbas game da ko ƙarfin samarwa zai kasance a rufe na ɗan lokaci ko kuma zai ɓace har abada. A tarihi, "labarin ɓangaren samar da kayayyaki" na kayayyaki sau da yawa ya koma da sauri saboda sauƙin yanayin ko fitowar wasu kayayyaki. Kasuwa tana buƙatar ƙarin shaida don nuna cewa waɗannan ƙarfin samarwa za su fita daga kasuwa a cikin dogon lokaci.

Rahoton ya amince da ƙarancin buƙata, amma har yanzu yana dagewa kan yanke hukunci kan babban gibi. Idan farashin aluminum ya tashi zuwa sama da $4000 ko ma $5000 kamar yadda aka annabta, babu makawa zai yi tasiri mai ƙarfi kan buƙatar ƙasa. Babban farashin zai tilasta wa kamfanonin da ke ƙasa neman wasu kayayyaki, rage oda, har ma da rage samarwa. Wannan tsarin martani mara kyau shine babban ƙarfin da zai hana hauhawar farashi mara iyaka. Yanayin kyakkyawan fata na Citigroup 'na iya yin watsi da saurin da farashi mai yawa zai iya lalata buƙata.

Aluminum muhimmin ƙarfe ne don sauya makamashi mai sauƙi da kore, kuma buƙatarsa ​​ta dogon lokaci ta kasance mai haske a farko. Amma wannan rahoton ya bayyana wani mummunan yanayi na ɗan gajeren lokaci: a gaban matsanancin girgizar wadata, labarin dogon lokaci na sauyin kore na iya ba da damar hauhawar farashin rayuwa na ɗan gajeren lokaci. Ga masu zuba jari da ke yin fare akan "hauhawar farashin kore", wannan alama ce mai rikitarwa: abubuwan da kansu sun yi tsada sosai, amma masana'antun kore na iya shan wahala sakamakon haka.

A taƙaice, rahoton Citigroup ya fi yin hasashen haɗarin yanayi mai tsanani fiye da hasashen da aka yi, wanda aka yi niyya don gargaɗin kasuwa cewa haɗarin da ka iya tasowa ya ƙaru sosai. Babu shakka zai sake fasalin yanayin tsammanin farashin kasuwa, ya ƙarfafa siyan hasashe, sannan ya tilasta wa dukkan mahalarta sarkar masana'antu su sake duba kayansu da dabarun shinge. Ko da kuwa hasashensa zai iya cika, ya yi nasarar yin ƙararrawa ga duniya.Kasuwar aluminum: dole ne a shirya kasuwa da ta saba da ƙananan sauyi don yiwuwar guguwa mai tsanani.