Thaum Lub Tsib Hlis 13th, tsoomfwv Indian tau tshaj tawm tsab ntawv ceeb toom rau Lub Koom Haum Ntiaj Teb Kev Lag Luam (WTO), npaj yuav tariffs rau qee cov khoom Asmeskas tuaj rau Is Nrias teb los teb rau cov nqi se siab los ntawm Tebchaws Meskas rau Indian cov khoom siv hlau thiab txhuas txij li xyoo 2018. Qhov kev ntsuas no tsis yog tsuas yog qhia txog kev rov tshwm sim ntawm kev lag luam kev sib txhuam ntawm Is Nrias teb thiab Tebchaws Meskas, tab sis kuj qhia txog kev tawm tsam ntawm kev sib cav sib ceg. kev lag luam cov cai thiab lawv qhov cuam tshuam loj heev rau kev lag luam hlau tsis muaj hlau nyob rau hauv cov ntsiab lus ntawm kev hloov kho cov saw hlau thoob ntiaj teb.
Lub xya xyoo khaus ntawm kev lag luam tawm tsam
Qhov tshwm sim rau qhov kev tsis sib haum xeeb no tuaj yeem taug qab mus rau xyoo 2018, thaum Tebchaws Meskas tau them se ntawm 25% thiab 10% ntawm cov hlau thoob ntiaj teb thiabcov khoom siv aluminiumRaws li qhov tshwm sim ntawm "kev ruaj ntseg hauv tebchaws". Txawm hais tias EU thiab lwm qhov kev lag luam tau txais kev zam los ntawm kev sib tham, Is Nrias teb, uas yog lub ntiaj teb thib ob loj tshaj plaws steel tsim khoom, yeej tsis muaj peev xwm khiav tawm ntawm Teb Chaws Asmeskas kev txwv rau nws cov khoom siv hlau thiab txhuas nrog tus nqi xa tawm txhua xyoo ntawm kwv yees li $ 1.2 billion.
Is Nrias teb tau rov hais dua tsis tau rov hais dua rau WTO thiab tau sau cov npe ntawm 28 qhov kev tawm tsam hauv 2019, tab sis tau ncua kev siv ntau zaus vim muaj kev xav txog cov tswv yim.
Tam sim no, Is Nrias teb tau xaiv los thov Daim Ntawv Pom Zoo rau Kev Nyab Xeeb raws li WTO lub luag haujlwm, tsom mus rau cov khoom lag luam muaj txiaj ntsig xws li Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam ua liaj ua teb (xws li almonds thiab taum) thiab tshuaj lom neeg hauv kev sim ntsuas qhov kev poob ntawm nws cov kev lag luam hlau hauv tsev los ntawm kev tawm tsam.
Lub 'Butterfly Effect' ntawm Steel Aluminium Kev Lag Luam Chain
Raws li cov qeb tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam hlau tsis-ferrous, kev hloov pauv hauv cov hlau thiab txhuas kev lag luam cuam tshuam rau cov hlab ntsha ntawm cov dej ntws thiab qis qis.
Cov kev txwv txwv los ntawm Tebchaws Meskas rau Indian steel thiab txhuas cov khoom tau cuam tshuam ncaj qha txog 30% ntawm cov tuam txhab me me thiab nruab nrab metallurgical hauv Is Nrias teb, thiab qee lub tuam txhab tau raug yuam kom txo qis kev tsim khoom lossis txawm tias raug kaw vim raug nqi nce.
Hauv Is Nrias teb cov kev ntsuas tam sim no, qhov kev txiav txim ntawm cov nqi se ntawm Asmeskas cov tshuaj yuav cuam tshuam ntxiv rau cov nqi ntshuam ntawm cov khoom siv tseem ceeb xws li fluorides thiab cov khoom siv anode xav tau rau kev ua txhuas.

Kev lag luam sab hauv txheeb xyuas tias yog tias qhov kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm ob tog txuas ntxiv mus, cov tuam tsev steel hauv nroog hauv Is Nrias teb tuaj yeem ntsib kev hloov pauv ntawm cov khoom siv raw, uas tuaj yeem thawb tus nqi ntawm cov khoom kawg xws li kev tsim steel thiab tsheb vaj huam sib luag.
Nyob rau hauv "Friendly Outsourcing" lub tswv yim yav dhau los txhawb los ntawm Tebchaws Meskas, Is Nrias teb tau pom tias yog ib qho tseem ceeb ntawm kev hloov Tuam Tshoj cov saw hlau, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv kev lag luam tshwj xeeb steel thiab tsis tshua muaj lub ntiaj teb ua.
Txawm li cas los xij, kev sib txhuam tariffs tau coj cov tuam txhab ntau lub teb chaws los ntsuas lawv cov peev txheej tsim khoom hauv Is Nrias teb. Ib lub tuam txhab European tsheb qhov chaw tsim khoom tau tshaj tawm tias nws lub Hoobkas Indian tau tshem tawm cov phiaj xwm nthuav dav thiab tab tom nrhiav ntxiv galvanized steel ntawv cov kab ntau lawm nyob rau sab hnub tuaj Asia.
Dual Game of Geoeconomics thiab Rule Reconstruction
Los ntawm ntau qhov kev xav macro, qhov xwm txheej no qhia txog kev tawm tsam ntawm WTO ntau lub tswv yim thiab kev ua tsis ncaj ncees ntawm lub zog loj. Txawm hais tias Is Nrias teb tau pib muaj kev tawm tsam raws li kev cai lij choj kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, kev ncua ntawm WTO Lub Tsev Hais Plaub Plaub Ntug txij li xyoo 2019 tau ua rau muaj kev cia siab rau kev daws teeb meem tsis meej.
Lub Chaw Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Lag Luam Hauv Tebchaws Meskas tau tshaj tawm nyob rau hauv tsab ntawv tshaj tawm rau lub Plaub Hlis 21 tias Tebchaws Meskas thiab Is Nrias teb tau pom zoo rau "kev sib tham sib tham txog kev lag luam," tab sis Is Nrias teb txoj kev nruj nruj rau lub sijhawm no tau hais meej meej txog kev nce nqi sib tham thiab nrhiav cov txiaj ntsig hauv thaj chaw xws li kev zam ntawm cov hlau thiab txhuas tariffs lossis cov se digital.
Rau cov tub ua lag luam hauv kev lag luam hlau tsis-ferrous, qhov kev ua si no muaj ob qho kev pheej hmoo thiab cov cib fim. Nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm luv luv, nce nqi ntshuam ntawm cov khoom ua liaj ua teb hauv Tebchaws Meskas tuaj yeem txhawb kev nthuav dav ntawm kev tsim khoom rau cov khoom siv hloov pauv xws li aluminium pre ci anodes thiab industrial silicon hauv Is Nrias teb; Hauv nruab nrab mus rau lub sij hawm ntev, peb yuav tsum tau ceev faj txog lub ntiaj teb metallurgical overcapacity los ntawm "tariff countermeasure" voj voog.
Raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Indian lub koom haum ntsuam xyuas CRISIL, yog tias cov kev ntsuas ntsuas tau ua tiav, Is Nrias teb cov hlau xa tawm kev sib tw yuav nce los ntawm 2-3 feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov ntsiab lus, tab sis lub siab ntawm cov tuam txhab lag luam aluminium hauv zos txhawm rau txhim kho lawv cov cuab yeej tseem yuav ua kom hnyav dua.
Tsis tiav Chess Game thiab Kev Tshawb Fawb Kev Lag Luam
Raws li lub sijhawm xov xwm, Tebchaws Meskas thiab Is Nrias teb tau tshaj tawm tias lawv yuav pib sib tham tim ntsej tim muag thaum kawg lub Tsib Hlis, nrog tsawg dua ob lub hlis tshuav rau lub sijhawm ncua nqi se.
Qhov kawg tshwm sim ntawm qhov kev ua si no yuav siv peb txoj hauv kev: ua ntej, ob tog tuaj yeem ncav cuag qhov kev sib pauv ntawm kev txaus siab hauv thaj chaw muaj tswv yim xws lisemiconductorsthiab kev tiv thaiv kev yuav khoom, tsim kom muaj kev sib haum xeeb; Qhov thib ob, qhov kev nce ntawm qhov kev tsis sib haum xeeb ua rau WTO kev txiav txim siab, tab sis vim yog lub chaw ua haujlwm tsis zoo, nws tau poob rau hauv kev ua tsov rog ntev; Qhov thib peb yog tias Is Nrias teb txo cov nqi se rau thaj chaw tsis tseem ceeb xws li cov khoom siv khoom kim heev thiab cov hnub ci vaj huam sib luag hauv kev pauv rau ib feem kev pom zoo los ntawm Tebchaws Meskas.