Musi waChivabvu 13, hurumende yeIndia yakaendesa zviri pamutemo chiziviso kuWorld Trade Organisation (WTO), ichironga kuisa mutero kune zvimwe zvinhu zvekuAmerica zvinopinzwa kuIndia zvichienderana nemitero yakakwira yakatemerwa neUnited States pazvigadzirwa zvesimbi nealuminium kubva kuIndia kubva muna 2018. unilateral kutengeserana mitemo uye kukanganisa kwavo kwakadzama pane isiri-ferrous simbi indasitiri mumamiriro ezvinhu epasi rose ekugovera keteni restructuring.
Iko makore manomwe itch yekutengeserana kunetsana
Chikonzero chekupokana uku chinogona kuteverwa kumashure muna 2018, apo United States yakatemera mutero we25% uye 10% pasimbi yepasi rose uye.zvigadzirwa zvealuminium, maererano, pamusana pe "kuchengetedzwa kwenyika". Kunyange hazvo EU nedzimwe nyika dzeupfumi dzakawana rusununguko kuburikidza nenhaurirano, India, senyika yechipiri pakukura pakugadzira simbi, haina kumbobvira yakwanisa kutiza zvirango zveUS pazvigadzirwa zvayo zvesimbi nealuminium zvine mutengo wepagore wekutengesa kunze ungangoita bhiriyoni imwe nemazana maviri emadhora.
India yakaramba yakundikana kukwidza kuWTO uye yakanyora runyorwa rwemakumi maviri nemasere ekupikisa muna 2019, asi yakamisa kuita kanoverengeka nekuda kwekufunga.
Ikozvino, India yasarudza kukumbira Chibvumirano cheChengetedzo pasi pehurongwa hweWTO, yakanangana nemhando yepamusoro-soro sezvigadzirwa zvekurima zvekuAmerica (semuarumondi nebhinzi) nemakemikari mukuyedza kuenzanisa kurasikirwa kweindasitiri yayo yesimbi kuburikidza nekurova chaiko.
Iyo 'Butterfly Effect' yeSimbi Aluminium Indasitiri Chain
Sechikamu chepakati cheiyo isiri-ferrous simbi indasitiri, kushanduka kwekutengesa kwesimbi nealuminium kunokanganisa tsinga dzakasimba dzekumusoro nekudzika kwemaindasitiri cheni.
Zvirambidzo zvakatemerwa neUnited States pazvigadzirwa zvesimbi nealuminium zveIndia zvakakanganisa zvakananga 30% yemabhizinesi madiki uye epakati nepakati simbi muIndia, uye mamwe mabhizinesi akamanikidzwa kudzikisa kugadzirwa kana kudzima nekuda kwekukwira kwemitengo.
Mumatanho ekuIndia azvino, kumisikidzwa kwemitero pamakemikari ekuAmerica kunogona kuwedzera kukanganisa mutengo wekunze kwezvinhu zvakakosha zvekubatsira zvakaita sefluorides uye anode zvinhu zvinodiwa pakugadziriswa kwealuminium.

Vemukati meindasitiri vanoongorora kuti kana gakava riripo pakati pemativi maviri aya rikaramba richienderera mberi, zvigayo zvesimbi zvemuno muIndia zvinogona kutarisana nekudzikira kwekupihwa kwezvinhu, izvo zvinogona kukwidza mitengo yezvinhu zvinopera sesimbi yekuvaka uye mapaneru emotokari.
Muchirongwa che "Friendly Outsourcing" chakambosimudzirwa neUnited States, India inoonekwa senzvimbo yakakosha mukutsiva ketani yekupa China, kunyanya muminda yesimbi yakakosha uye isingawanzo kugadzirwa pasi.
Nekudaro, kupokana kwemitero kwakatungamira makambani epasi rose kuti aongororezve kugadzirwa kwavo kwekugadzira muIndia. Mugadziri wezvigadziriso zvemotokari wekuEurope aratidza kuti fekitori yayo yekuIndia yakamisa hurongwa hwekuwedzera uye iri kutsvaga kuwedzera mitsara yekugadzira simbi yesimbi muSoutheast Asia.
Iyo Dual Game yeGeoeconomics uye Rule Kuvakazve
Kubva mune mamwe macro maonero, chiitiko ichi chinoratidza kurwisana pakati peWTO multilateral mechanism uye zviito zveunilateral zvemasimba makuru. Kunyangwe India yakatanga matanho anoenderana nemitemo yekutengeserana nedzimwe nyika, kumiswa kweWTO Appellate Body kubva muna 2019 kwakasiya tarisiro yekugadzirisa gakava.
Hofisi yeMumiriri weUnited States Trade Representative yakaratidza mukutaura muna Kubvumbi 21 kuti United States neIndia dzakasvika pakubvumirana pane "kuwirirana kwekutengeserana hurongwa," asi chimiro chakaomarara cheIndia panguva ino chakanangana nekuwedzera machipisi uye kutsvaga mabhenefiti munzvimbo dzakadai sekuregererwa mutero wesimbi nealuminium kana mutero wedhijitari.
Kune vanoisa mari mune isiri-ferrous simbi indasitiri, mutambo uyu unotakura zvese njodzi nemikana. Nenguva pfupi, kukwira kwemitengo yekunze kwezvinhu zvekurima muUnited States kunogona kukurudzira kuwedzera kwesimba rekugadzira zvinhu zvinotsiva sealuminium pre baked anodes uye silicon yeindasitiri muIndia; Munguva yepakati kusvika kureba, tinofanira kungwarira pamusoro pepasi rose metallurgical overcapacity inokonzerwa ne "tariff countermeasure" cycle.
Zvinoenderana nedata kubva kuIndia rating agency CRISIL, kana matanho akaitwa zvizere, kukwikwidza kweIndia simbi kunze kwenyika kunogona kuwedzera ne2-3 muzana, asi kudzvanywa kumakambani emuno ekugadzira aluminium kugadzirisa michina yavo kuchawedzerawo.
Usati Wapera Chess Mutambo uye Indasitiri Insights
Kubva panguva yekunyora, United States neIndia dzakazivisa kuti dzichatanga nhaurirano dzakatarisana mukupera kwaChivabvu, kwasara isingasviki mwedzi miviri kuti mutero umiswe.
Mhedzisiro yekupedzisira yemutambo uyu inogona kutora nzira nhatu: chekutanga, mativi maviri anogona kusvika pakutsinhana kwezvido munzvimbo dzakarongwa senge.semiconductorsuye kutenga kwedziviriro, kuumba chibvumirano chechikamu; Chechipiri, kuwedzera kwekupokana kwakakonzera kukakavara kweWTO, asi nekuda kwekukanganisa kwemasangano, yakawira mukudhonzerana kwehondo kwenguva refu; Chechitatu ndechekuti India inodzikisa mutero panzvimbo dzisiri dzepakati senge zvinhu zveumbozha uye solar panels mukutsinhana nechikamu chemvumo kubva kuUnited States.