Ngomhla ziyi-13 kuNhlaba, uhulumeni wase-India wathumela ngokusemthethweni isaziso ku-World Trade Organization (WTO), ehlela ukukhokhisa intela kwezinye izimpahla zaseMelika ezithunyelwa e-India ngenxa yezindleko eziphezulu ezibekwe yi-United States ngemikhiqizo yensimbi ne-aluminium yase-India kusukela ngo-2018. izinqubomgomo zokuhwebelana ezihlangene kanye nomthelela wazo omkhulu embonini yensimbi engeyona insimbi esimweni sokuhlelwa kabusha kochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla emhlabeni jikelele.
Iminyaka eyisikhombisa yokuxabana kwezohwebo
Imbangela yale ngxabano ingalandelelwa emuva ku-2018, lapho i-United States ibeka intela yama-25% kanye ne-10% kunsimbi yomhlaba wonke kanye.imikhiqizo ye-aluminium, ngokulandelana, ngezizathu “zokuphepha kwezwe”. Nakuba i-EU kanye namanye amazwe ezomnotho athole ukukhululwa ngezingxoxo, i-India, njengezwe elingelesibili ngobukhulu emhlabeni ngokukhiqiza insimbi, ayikaze ikwazi ukubalekela imikhawulo yase-US emikhiqizweni yayo yensimbi neye-aluminium enenani lokuthekelisa lonyaka elilinganiselwa ku-$1.2 billion.
I-India yehluleke kaningi ukufaka isicelo ku-WTO futhi yabhala uhlu lwezinyathelo eziphikisanayo ezingama-28 ngo-2019, kodwa yahlehlisa ukusetshenziswa izikhathi eziningi ngenxa yokucatshangelwa kwamasu.
Manje, i-India ikhethe ukunxenxa Isivumelwano Sokuvikela ngaphansi kohlaka lwe-WTO, eqondiswe kwimpahla enenani eliphezulu njengemikhiqizo yezolimo yaseMelika (njengama-alimondi nobhontshisi) namakhemikhali emzamweni wokulinganisa ukulahleka kwemboni yayo yasekhaya yensimbi ngokusebenzisa iziteleka ezinembile.
'I-Butterfly Effect' ye-Steel Aluminium Industry Chain
Njengesigaba esiyinhloko semboni yensimbi engeyona insimbi, ukushintshashintsha kohwebo lwensimbi ne-aluminium kuthinta imizwa ebucayi yamaketango ezimboni akhuphuka nomfula.
Imikhawulo ebekwe yi-United States emikhiqizweni yensimbi ne-aluminium yaseNdiya ibe nomthelela ngokuqondile cishe ku-30% wamabhizinisi amancane naphakathi nendawo e-India, futhi amanye amabhizinisi aphoqeleke ukuthi ehlise ukukhiqiza noma avale ngenxa yokukhuphuka kwezindleko.
Ezilinganisweni zamanje zase-India, ukukhokhiswa kwentela kumakhemikhali aseMelika kungase kuphazamise izindleko zokungenisa izinto ezibalulekile eziyisekelayo njenge-fluoride nezinto ze-anode ezidingekayo ukuze kucutshungulwe i-aluminium.

Abangaphakathi embonini bahlaziya ukuthi uma ingxabano phakathi kwalezi zinhlangothi zombili iqhubeka, izigayo zensimbi zasendaweni e-India zingase zibhekane nokushintshashintsha kokutholakala kwezinto ezingavuthiwe, okungase kwenyuse amanani entengo yemikhiqizo yokugcina efana nensimbi yokwakha namaphaneli ezimoto.
Esu “lokuhlinzeka ngosizo olunobungane” elathuthukiswa ngaphambilini yi-United States, i-India ibonwa njengesizinda esibalulekile sokushintsha uchungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla lwaseShayina, ikakhulukazi emikhakheni yensimbi ekhethekile kanye nokucutshungulwa komhlaba okungandile.
Kodwa-ke, ukungqubuzana kwentela kuholele ekutheni izinkampani zamazwe ngamazwe zibuyekeze ukwakheka kwamandla azo okukhiqiza eNdiya. Umkhiqizi wezingxenye zezimoto wase-Europe uveze ukuthi imboni yayo yase-India imise izinhlelo zokunweba futhi ifuna ukwengeza izintambo zokukhiqiza amashidi ensimbi eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia.
I-Dual Game of Geoeconomics kanye Nokwakhiwa Kabusha Komthetho
Ngokombono omkhulu, lesi sigameko sikhombisa umzabalazo phakathi kwendlela ye-WTO yamazwe amaningi kanye nezenzo ezihlangene zamazwe amakhulu. Yize i-India iqale izindlela zokuphikisa ezisekelwe emithethweni yezohwebo yamazwe ngamazwe, ukumiswa kwe-WTO Appellate Body kusukela ngo-2019 kushiye amathuba okuxazululwa kwezingxabano engaqinisekile.
IHhovisi Lommeleli Wezohwebo wase-United States lembule esitatimendeni sango-Ephreli 21 ukuthi i-United States ne-India bafinyelele ukuvumelana “ngohlaka lwezingxoxo zohwebo oluvumelanayo,” kodwa isimo esiqinile sase-India kulokhu kuhloswe ngaso ngokusobala ukukhulisa ama-bargaining chips kanye nokufuna izinzuzo ezindaweni ezinjengokungakhokhi intela yensimbi ne-aluminium noma izintela zedijithali.
Kubatshalizimali embonini yensimbi engeyona insimbi, lo mdlalo uphethe kokubili ubungozi namathuba. Esikhathini esifushane, ukukhuphuka kwezindleko zokungeniswa kwemikhiqizo yezolimo e-United States kungase kugqugquzele ukwanda kwamandla okukhiqiza wezinto ezishintshayo ezifana ne-aluminium pre baked anode kanye ne-silicon yezimboni e-India; Esikhathini esimaphakathi kuya kwelide, kudingeka siqaphe mayelana nokugcwala ngokweqile komhlaba wonke kwe-metallurgical okubangelwa umjikelezo “we-tariff countermeasure”.
Ngokusho kwedatha evela ku-ejensi yokulinganisa yase-India i-CRISIL, uma izinyathelo eziphikisanayo zenziwa ngokugcwele, ukuncintisana kwensimbi yase-India nokuthunyelwa kwensimbi kungase kukhuphuke ngamaphesenti angu-2-3, kodwa ingcindezi ezinkampanini zendawo ezikhiqiza i-aluminium ukuthi zithuthukise imishini yazo nayo izokhula.
Igeyimu ye-Chess Engaqediwe kanye Nemininingwane Yezimboni
Kusukela ngesikhathi sokushicilela, i-United States ne-India bamemezele ukuthi bazoqala izingxoxo zobuso nobuso ekupheleni kukaMeyi, sekusele izinyanga ezingaphansi kwezimbili ukuthi kumiswe intela.
Umphumela wokugcina walo mdlalo ungathatha izindlela ezintathu: okokuqala, izinhlangothi zombili zingase zifinyelele ekushintshisaneni ngezintshisakalo ezindaweni zamasu ezifanaama-semiconductorskanye nokuthengwa kwempahla kwezokuvikela, okwakha ukuvumelana ngezigaba; Okwesibili, ukwanda kwengxabano kwabangela ukulamula kwe-WTO, kodwa ngenxa yamaphutha esikhungo, yawela emdonsisweni omude; Okwesithathu ukuthi i-India yehlisa amanani entengo ezindaweni okungezona ezibalulekile njengezimpahla zikanokusho namaphaneli elanga ukuze ithole imvume engaphelele evela e-United States.