Esimeni samanje esintengantengayo sohwebo lwensimbi emhlabeni wonke, imakethe ye-aluminum yaseNyakatho Melika igcwele isiphithiphithi esingakaze sibonwe ngaphambili, futhi umnyakazo ka-Rio Tinto, umkhiqizi omkhulu we-aluminium emhlabeni, ufana nebhomu elinzima, eliqhubekisela phambili le nkinga ukuthi ifinyelele kuvuthondaba.

Inhlawulo ye-Rio Tinto: I-Catalyst for Market Tension

Muva nje, ngokwemibiko yabezindaba ngoLwesibili, iRio Tinto Group ikhokhise imali eyengeziweimikhiqizo ye-aluminiumithengiswe e-United States, icaphuna i-inventory ephansi kanye nesidingo esiqala ukweqa ukunikezwa okutholakalayo. Lezi zindaba zibangele amagagasi ayinkulungwane emakethe ye-aluminium yaseNyakatho Melika. Kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi i-United States njengamanje ithembele kakhulu ekuhlinzekweni kwe-aluminium yangaphandle, ne-Canada njengomnikezeli wayo omkhulu kunabo bonke, ebalwa ngaphezu kuka-50% wezimpahla zayo eziphuma ngaphandle. Umnyakazo we-Rio Tinto ngokungangabazeki ungeza uphethiloli emakethe ye-aluminium yase-US evele ishube kakhulu.

Inkokhelo eyengeziwe ebekwe yi-Rio Tinto ingenye inkokhelo ekhona. Intengo ye-aluminium yase-US isivele ihlanganisa “i-premium yase-Midwest”, okuyizindleko ezengeziwe ezingaphezu kwenani lokumakisha lase-London, elihlanganisa ezokuthutha, indawo yokugcina impahla, umshwalense, nezindleko zezimali. Futhi le nkokhiso entsha yengeza enye isenti elingu-1 kuya ku-3 phezu kweprimiyamu yaseMidwest. Nakuba inani lingase libonakale lincane, umthelela empeleni ufinyelela kude. Ngokwemithombo enolwazi, imali eyengeziwe kanye neprimiyamu yaseMidwest ingeza u-$2006 ngethani elengeziwe enanini lempahla eluhlaza elinganiselwa ku-$2830, okuholela emalini ekhokhwayo engaphezu kuka-70%, ephakeme kakhulu kunentela yokungenisa engu-50% ebekwe nguTrump. UJean Simard, inhloko yeCanadian Aluminium Association, uveze ukuthi intela ye-aluminium engu-50% ebekwe uhulumeni wase-US inyusa kakhulu ingozi yokubamba i-aluminium yokusungula e-US. Izinguquko zentela zithinta ngokuqondile ezomnotho zemisebenzi yezimali ebambe iqhaza, edinga abathengi abanemibandela yokukhokha yenkontileka engaphezu kwezinsuku ezingu-30 ukuthi bakhokhe inani elithe xaxa ukuze baqede izindleko eziphezulu zezimali zabakhiqizi.

Isethulo Sezintengo: Ukuqala Kokungalingani Kwemakethe

Kusukela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, ukulungiswa kwabaphathi bakaTrump kwezintela ze-aluminium kube yimbangela yokungalingani emakethe ye-aluminium yaseNyakatho Melika. NgoFebhuwari, uTrump wabeka intela ye-aluminium ku-25%, kwathi ngoJuni wayinyusa yafinyelela ku-50%, ethi ihloselwe ukuvikela izimboni zaseMelika. Lesi silinganiso senza i-aluminium yaseCanada yabiza kakhulu kumaphrosesa nabathengi bensimbi baseMelika, futhi imakethe yasheshe yashintshela ekusetshenzisweni kwempahla yasekhaya kanye nokushintshana kwempahla egcina impahla.

Isimo se-aluminium yokusungula ezindaweni zokugcina izimpahla zeLondon Metal Exchange e-United States siwubufakazi obungcono kakhulu. Indawo yayo yokugcina impahla e-United States iphelelwe yi-aluminium, futhi amathani angu-125 okugcina athathwa ngo-Okthoba. Impahla yokushintshanisa, njengesiqinisekiso sokugcina sokuhlinzekwa ngokomzimba, manje iphelelwa izinhlamvu nokudla. Umkhiqizi we-aluminium omkhulu kunawo wonke e-United States, i-Alcoa, uphinde washo phakathi nengqungquthela yekota yesithathu yezinzuzo ukuthi impahla yasekhaya yanele kuphela izinsuku ezingama-35 zokusetshenziswa, izinga elivame ukubangela ukwenyuka kwamanani.

Ngesikhathi esifanayo, abakhiqizi be-aluminium baseQuebec bathumela insimbi eyengeziwe eYurophu ngenxa yokulahlekelwa emakethe yase-US. I-Quebec ithatha cishe u-90% womthamo wokukhiqiza i-aluminium yaseCanada futhi iseduze ne-United States ngokwendawo. Ekuqaleni ibingumthengi wemvelo emakethe yase-US, manje isishintshile indlela ngenxa yezinqubomgomo zentela, okuqhubekisela phambili ukushoda kokuhlinzeka emakethe yase-US.

Umshwana othize: 'Ungqondongqondo ngemuva kwezigcawu' obhebhethekisa isiphithiphithi semakethe

Izinhlinzeko ezithile esimemezelweni sikamongameli wase-US ziqhubekisele phambili isimo esishubile emakethe ye-aluminium yaseNyakatho Melika. Lesi sigaba somthetho sibeka ukuthi uma insimbi incibilikiswa futhi yasakazwa e-United States, imikhiqizo engenisiwe ngeke ikhokhiswe intela ye-aluminium. Lo mthethonqubo ubonakala uhlose ukukhuthaza ukuthuthukiswa kwemboni ye-aluminium yasekhaya e-United States, kodwa empeleni uye wadala isidingo esikhulu se-American made aluminium evela kubakhiqizi baphesheya kwezilwandle. Abakhiqizi baphesheya kwezilwandle basebenzisa le mikhiqizo ekhiqizwe i-aluminium futhi bayithumele ngaphandle kwentela e-United States, baqhubeke becindezela isikhala semakethe semikhiqizo yasekhaya ye-aluminium e-United States futhi babhebhethekise ukungalingani kwezidingo zokuhlinzeka emakethe ye-aluminium yase-US.

Umbono womhlaba wonke: INyakatho Melika akuyona kuphela 'inkundla yempi'

Ngokombono womhlaba wonke, ukushuba kwesimo emakethe ye-aluminium yaseNyakatho Melika akuyona into engavamile. I-Europe, ephinde ibe ngumhwebi ophelele we-aluminium, ibone ukwehla okungama-5% kumaphrimiyamu esifunda uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule. Kodwa-ke, emasontweni asanda kwedlula, ngenxa yokuphazamiseka kokuhlinzekwa kwempahla kanye nokuqaliswa kwe-EU kwezimali zokungenisa ezweni ezisekelwe ekukhishweni kwesisi esibamba ukushisa okuvela ezinqubweni zokukhiqiza ngonyaka ozayo, amaphrimiyamu aphinde akhuphuka. Abahlaziyi babikezela ukuthi umongo wamanje womhlaba wonke uzoqhuba intengo yokuma yomhlaba wonke ukuthi yeqe ku-$3000 ngethani.

UMichael Widmer, oyinhloko yocwaningo lwensimbi eBank of America, uthe uma i-US ifuna ukuheha ukuhlinzekwa kwe-aluminium, kufanele ikhokhe amanani aphezulu ngoba i-US akuyona yodwa imakethe eshodayo. Lo mbono ukhomba ngokuqinile ubunzima obukhona manje emakethe ye-aluminium yaseNyakatho Melika. Ngokumelene nesizinda sokutholakala kwe-aluminium emhlabeni wonke okuqinile, inqubomgomo yentela ephezulu yase-United States ayigcinanga nje ngokuhluleka ukuvikela izimboni zasekhaya, kodwa futhi yazifaka enkingeni ejulile yokuhlinzeka.

Umbono wesikhathi esizayo: Imakethe iya kuphi ukusuka lapha

Isigameko sokukhokhiswa kwe-Rio Tinto inhlawulo eyengeziwe ngokungangabazeki sizwakalise umsindo emakethe ye-aluminum yaseNyakatho Melika. Abathengi nabahwebi bachaza imakethe yamanje njengecishe ingasebenzi kahle, futhi inkokhiso ye-Rio Tinto iwuphawu olucacile lokuthi amanani entengo kaTrump alimaza kanjani ngokujulile isakhiwo semakethe. Intengo yokulethwa kwe-aluminium e-United States ifinyelele phezulu emlandweni ngesonto eledlule, futhi inkambiso yentengo yesikhathi esizayo isagcwele ukungaqiniseki.

Kuhulumeni wase-US, ukuthi uqhubeke nokulandela izinqubomgomo zentela ephezulu futhi uqhubekisele phambili isiphithiphithi sezimakethe, noma uhlole kabusha izinqubomgomo futhi ufune ukubambisana nokuvumelana nabalingani bokuhweba, sekuyisinqumo esinzima phambi kwethu. Kubabambiqhaza emakethe ye-aluminium yomhlaba wonke, indlela yokulungisa amasu okubhekana nokushoda kwempahla kanye nokuguquguquka kwentengo kulesi siphithiphithi kuzoba uvivinyo olunzima. Sizovela kanjani lesi' siphepho 'emakethe ye-aluminium yaseNyakatho Melika, futhi yiziphi izinguquko ezizokwenzeka emakethe ye-aluminium yomhlaba wonke? Kuwufanele ukuqhubeka kwethu ukunakwa.