Ngomhla we-10 kweyoKwindla, ngo-2026, kwavela iindaba zokuba ii-aluminiyam kwiLondon Metal Exchange (LME) ziqhubeke nokuphela ngokukhawuleza. Ngokukodwa, ukusukela ngoJanuwari kulo nyaka, ii-aluminiyam kwi-LME warehouse ePort Klang, eMalaysia, ziye zakhutshwa ngokuthe chu ngesantya seetoni ezingama-2,000 ngosuku, nto leyo eba luphawu oluphambili lotshintsho kwimeko-bume ye-aluminiyam yehlabathi. Emva kwale datha kukho ukuncipha okuqhubekayo kweminyaka emithandathu kwii-aluminiyam ze-LME, kunye nokunqongophala okungabonakaliyo kwee-aluminiyam ezikhoyo kubathengi baseNtshona. Kunye nempembelelo yezohlwayo zezopolitiko kunye nohlengahlengiso lwekhonkco lokubonelela, ibhalansi eqinileyo yemarike ye-aluminiyam yehlabathi iye yanda ngakumbi.

Idatha ibonisa ukuba ukwehla "okupheleleyo" kwisitokhwe se-aluminium se-LME sisigqibo esingaphambili. Ekuqaleni kuka-2020, istokhwe ze-aluminium ze-LME zazisafikelela kwi-3 yezigidi zeetoni, kodwa ekupheleni kukaFebruwari 2026, isitokhwe esibhalisiweyo nesingabhaliswanga sasinciphile saya kwi-583,000 yeetoni kuphela, nto leyo ebeka irekhodi eliphantsi ukusukela oko i-LME yaqala ukupapasha idatha yesitokhwe esingabhaliswanga ngo-2020. Nangona umsebenzi wesignali yexabiso lesitokhwe se-aluminium se-LME uye waba buthathaka kakhulu kwiminyaka elishumi edlulileyo ngenxa yempembelelo yemisebenzi yorhwebo kwiindawo zokugcina impahla zabarhwebi kunye neebhanki, umthamo wesitokhwe esiphantsi ngokwembali okwangoku usabonakalisa ngokucacileyo imeko yokubonelela kunye nemfuno encinci kwimarike ye-aluminium yehlabathi.

Xa sijonga kwiintshukumo zakutshanje zempahla, ukuphuma okuqhubekayo okuvela ePort Klang kubaluleke kakhulu. Njengendawo yokugcina impahla ephambili ye-LME kuMzantsi-mpuma we-Asia, ukuphuma kwemihla ngemihla kwale ndawo yokugcina impahla yeetoni ezingama-2,000 kuyaqhubeka nokunciphisa uluhlu lwezinto ezibonakalayo kwihlabathi liphela. Idatha yamva nje yemarike ibonisa ukuba ukusukela nge-9 kaMatshi, uluhlu lwezinto ze-aluminium ezibhalisiweyo ze-LME luye lwehla lwaya kwiitoni ezingama-454,600, kunye nokwehla kwemihla ngemihla kweetoni ezingama-2,250, okuqhubeka nomkhwa wokususa izinto ezifunekayo ngokukhawuleza ukusukela ekuqaleni konyaka. Abantu abangaphakathi kushishino bathi ukuphuma okuqhubekayo okuvela ePort Klang kubonisa ukukhululwa kwemfuno eqinileyo kumashishini asezantsi afana namandla amatsha kunye nokuveliswa kwezinto eziphezulu e-Asia, kunye nokuziphatha kokugcina impahla yabarhwebi ngokuchasene nemvelaphi yezinto eziphantsi, okunyusa uxinzelelo kwimarike yendawo.

Okufanelwe kukuqwalaselwa ngakumbi kukuba phantsi "kokuchuma okubonakalayo" kwedatha yempahla egciniweyo, abathengi baseNtshona bajongene nengxaki enkulu "yokunqongophala kwempahla egciniweyo ekhoyo". Ngokwezibalo, ekupheleni kukaJanuwari 2026, ama-58% empahla ebhalisiweyo kwi-LME yayiquka isiRashiya.iimveliso ze-aluminiumNgokuphathelele izithintelo zezopolitiko, i-United States kunye ne-United Kingdom zayivala ngokusemthethweni i-aluminium yaseRashiya ngo-2024, kwaye i-European Union nayo icacisile ixesha layo lezohlwayo - iphumeza imiqathango yenguqu kwi-aluminium yaseRashiya ukususela nge-26 kaFebruwari 2026, kwaye yayivala ngokupheleleyo i-aluminiyam yayo ukususela nge-31 kaDisemba 2026. Oku kuthetha ukuba nangona inani elikhulu lempahla ye-aluminium yaseRashiya lisekho kwinkqubo yobhaliso lwe-LME, ayifakwanga kuluhlu lokuthengwa kwabathengi baseNtshona, kwaye impahla ye-aluminium engeyiyo yaseRashiya ekhoyo iphantsi kakhulu kunenani elibonakalayo leetoni ezingama-583,000.

Enyanisweni, ibhalansi eqinileyo ekhoyo kwimarike ye-aluminium yehlabathi sisiphumo sokungqubana kwezinto ezintathu: imida yokubonelela, ukubuyiselwa kwemfuno, kunye nezohlwayo ze-geopolitical. Kwicala lokubonelela, uMbindi Mpuma, njengommandla ophambili womthamo wemveliso ye-aluminium kwihlabathi (onegalelo malunga ne-8% yemveliso yehlabathi), kutshanje ujongene neengxabano ze-geopolitical, ezikhokelele kwizixhobo zokunyibilikisa eziphambili ezifana neQatalum kunye neBahrain Aluminium ezibhengeze amandla amakhulu, nto leyo echaphazela ngakumbi ukunikezelwa kwehlabathi. Kwicala lemfuno, uphuhliso olukhawulezileyo lwamashishini asakhasayo afana nezithuthi zamandla amatsha, ukugcinwa kwamandla e-photovoltaic, kunye neerobhothi ezingabantu ziyaqhubeka nokuqhuba imfuno yezinto ze-aluminium eziphezulu. Kunye nokubuyiselwa kwamashishini emveli okuvelisa, oku kuxhasa ukukhula okuzinzileyo kokusetyenziswa kwe-aluminium. Ukulungiswa kwakhona kokuhamba korhwebo okubangelwe zizohlwayo ze-geopolitical kuye kwayenza mandundu imeko yempahla esele ixinene, kutyhala ukusasazeka kweekhontrakthi ze-aluminium ze-spot ze-LME ngokuchasene neekhontrakthi zokulinganisa ukusuka ekubuyiselweni ukuya kwi-contango, kugxininisa ukungxamiseka kwemfuno ekufutshane nenyanga.

Uhlalutyo lwemarike lubonisa ukuba kwixesha elifutshane, ukuphuma okuqhubekayo okuvela ePort Klang kunye nokunqongophala kwezitokhwe ezikhoyo eNtshona kuya kuqhubeka nokuxhasa ukuguquguquka okuphezulu kwamaxabiso e-aluminium, kwaye uxinzelelo kwimarike yesikhashana akunakwenzeka ukuba luphele ngokukhawuleza. Kwixesha elide, njengoko i-EU ithintela ngokupheleleyo i-aluminium yaseRashiya, ukuhamba korhwebo lwe-aluminium kwihlabathi liphela kuya kujongana nohlengahlengiso. Izinga lokukhululwa kwamandla emveliso ye-aluminium engeyiyo eyaseRashiya kunye nesantya sokukhula kwemfuno ephantsi kuya kuba ziinguqu eziphambili ezimisela ukuthambekela kwamaxabiso e-aluminium.