Niaj hnub no lub hom phiaj nyob rau hauv lub lag luam txhuas: dual tsav tsheb ntawm cov cai thiab kev lag luam kev sib txhuam

Txoj cai hauv tebchaws 'pib phom' tau raug rho tawm haujlwm

Lub Plaub Hlis 7, 2025, National Development and Reform Commission thiab Ministry of Industry thiab Information Technology tau koom ua lub rooj sib tham los txhawb txoj kev loj hlob zoo ntawm kev lag luam txhuas, piav qhia txog kev ua raws li "Peb Xyoo Action Plan for Green Transformation of the Aluminium Industry" txij hnub no. Txoj cai tseem ceeb suav nrog:

nruj me ntsis tswj qhov sib ntxiv ntawm electrolytic aluminium ntau lawm muaj peev xwm: nyob rau hauv lub hauv paus ntsiab lus, thermal zog aluminium tej yaam num yuav tsis tau pom zoo, thiab outdated zus tau tej cov peev xwm ntawm 3 lab tons yuav raug tshem tawm los ntawm 2027.

Qhov "Doubling Plan for Recycled Aluminium" aims kom ua tiav ntau tshaj 13 lab tons ntawm cov khoom siv rov ua dua tshiab los ntawm 2025, nrog rau kev txhawb nqa se tilted rau cov lag luam txhuas rov ua dua tshiab.

Txhim khu kev ruaj ntseg: Launching pilot project rau kev txhim kho cov khoom siv txhuas nyob rau hauv cov thee hauv Henan thiab Shanxi xeev, txhawb tus kheej-sufficiency tus nqi ntawm domestic bauxite rau 60%.

Kev cuam tshuam los ntawm qhov no, A-share aluminium sector tau pom qhov sib txawv tseem ceeb niaj hnub no, nrog cov tswv yim hloov pauv ntsuab ntsuab xws li Tuam Tshoj Aluminium Kev Lag Luam (601600. SH) thiab Nanshan Aluminium Kev Lag Luam (600219. SH) nce ntau dua 3% tawm tsam qhov sib txawv, thaum cov nqi ntawm cov khoom lag luam me thiab nruab nrab ntawm aluminium uas cia siab rau thermal fais fab.

Countdown rau US Tuam Tshoj tariffs 'boots tsaws'

Lub Chaw Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Lag Luam Hauv Tebchaws Meskas (USTR) tau rov hais dua hnub no tias "cov nqi sib npaug" ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv Suav teb yuav raug siv rau lub Plaub Hlis 10th. Txawm hais tias aluminium ingots tsis nyob rau hauv daim ntawv teev npe, tus nqi xa tawm ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob qis (xws li cov khoom siv tsheb thiab cov ntawv txhuas) tuaj yeem nce siab. Ua ke nrog kev poob qis hauv Asmeskas kev tsim PMI rau 49.5 hauv lub Peb Hlis (yav dhau los 51.2), kev txhawj xeeb txog kev xav tau ntawm lub ntiaj teb txhuas qhov kev xav tau nce zuj zus hauv kev ua lag luam.

Kev muab khoom thiab xav tau kev ua si: cov khoom muag vau vs. tus nqi poob

Cov khoom muag hits peb-xyoo qis, lub caij nyoog siab tshaj plaws pib pib

Raws li lub Plaub Hlis 7th, cov khoom lag luam sib raug zoo ntawm electrolytic aluminium hauv Suav teb tau poob rau 738000 tons (ib lub lis piam txo ntawm 27000 tons), qib qis tshaj txij li xyoo 2022.Aluminium pas nrigCov khoom muag tau synchronously tsis kam mus rau 223000 tons, qhia txog kev rov qab los ntawm kev thov rau lub tsev profiles, photovoltaic thav duab, thiab lwm yam khoom.

Tus nqi sab 'avalanche' rub tus nqi txhuas

Kev cuam tshuam los ntawm kev rov qab los ntawm bauxite xa tawm los ntawm Indonesia, tus nqi ntawm alumina poob los ntawm 8% hauv ib lub lis piam, thiab cov lus hais hauv cheeb tsam Henan poob rau 2850 yuan / ton. Tus nqi tag nrho ntawm electrolytic aluminium txo qis qis dua 16600 yuan / tuj, thiab cov txiaj ntsig smelting tau nce mus rau 3200 yuan / tuj. Txo tus nqi them nyiaj yug thiab nce kev tiv thaiv rau aluminium nqi nce.

Kev sib tw: Leej twg yog tus sib tw ntawm txoj kev ntsuab? ua

Tuam Tshoj Hongqiao (01378. HK) tshaj tawm hnub no tias nws yuav nqis peev hauv kev tsim kho lub ntiaj teb thawj "zero carbon electrolytic aluminium" ua qauv kab hauv Yunnan, nrog rau kev npaj yuav pib ntau lawm hauv 2026. Tus nqi Tshuag tau nce ntau dua 5% thaum lub sijhawm ua lag luam.

Yunlv Co., Ltd. (000807. SZ) tshaj tawm kev koom tes nrog CATL los tsim "tsawg-carbon roj teeb txhuas ntawv ci" thiab nkag mus rau lub zog tshiab tsheb thauj khoom. Lub tuam txhab kwv yees tias nws cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov khoom siv rov ua dua tshiab yuav ntau dua 40% los ntawm 2025.

Cov txheej txheem loj thoob ntiaj teb: Alcoa tshaj tawm hnub no tias nws yuav kaw cov nqi siab smelters hauv Australia thiab hloov mus rau cov neeg Esxias sab hnub tuaj rov siv txhuas ua lag luam, ua kom cov khoom lag luam thoob ntiaj teb muaj peev xwm hloov mus rau sab hnub tuaj.

Lub lim tiam no tus nqi aluminium forecast: txoj cai nyiaj faib tawm vs. kev txhawj xeeb txog qhov xav tau zais

Cov yam ntxwv zoo

Cov khoom muag qis + lub caij nyoog siab tshaj plaws: lub voj voog rov ua dua lossis txhawb nqa rau lub sijhawm luv luv ntawm cov nqi txhuas.

Txoj cai catalysis: Cov ntsiab lus xws li rov siv dua txhuas thiab txhuas hauv qab cov thee yog fermenting, thiab cov nyiaj yuav tsom mus rau cov khoom lag luam.

Tsis zoo siab suppression

Tus nqi poob: Kev ua haujlwm tsis muaj zog ntawm alumina tus nqi tuaj yeem ua rau tsis muaj nqi them nyiaj ntawm electrolytic aluminium.

Kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev thov sab nraud: Tom qab kev siv cov nqi se rau lub Plaub Hlis 10th, txhuas cov khoom xa tawm tuaj yeem raug siab.