Ukugxila kwanamuhla emakethe ye-aluminium: abashayeli abakabili bezinqubomgomo kanye nokushayisana kwezohwebo

Umgomo wasekhaya othi 'starting gun' uxoshiwe

Ngomhla ziyisi-7 kuMbasa wezi-2025, Ikhomishana Kazwelonke Yokuthuthukiswa Nezinguquko kanye Nomnyango Wezimboni Nobuchwepheshe Bolwazi ngokuhlanganyela babambe umhlangano wokugqugquzela ukuthuthukiswa kwekhwalithi ephezulu yemboni ye-aluminium, becacisa ukuqaliswa “Kweminyaka Emithathu Yohlelo Lokusebenza Lokuguqulwa Kokuhlaza Kwemboni Ye-aluminium” kusukela namuhla. Umongo wenqubomgomo uhlanganisa:

Lawula ngokuqinile ukwengezwa kwamandla okukhiqiza i-aluminium e-electrolytic: empeleni, amaphrojekthi we-aluminium amandla ashisayo ngeke esavunyelwa, futhi umthamo wokukhiqiza ophelelwe yisikhathi wamathani ayizigidi ezi-3 uzoqedwa ngo-2027.

I-“Doubling Plan for Recycled Aluminium” ihlose ukuzuza ukukhiqizwa kwamathani angaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-13 e-aluminiyamu egaywe kabusha ngo-2025, enenzuzo yentela etshekele emabhizinisini e-aluminium agaywe kabusha.

Ukuqinisa ukuvikeleka kwezinsiza: Kwethulwa amaphrojekthi okulinga okuthuthukiswa kwezinsiza ze-aluminium ngaphansi kwamalahle ezifundazweni zaseHenan naseShanxi, kugqugquzelwa izinga lokuzanelisa kwe-bauxite yasekhaya libe ku-60%.

Ethintwe yilokhu, umkhakha we-aluminium we-A-share ubonise umehluko obalulekile namuhla, ngezitoko zomqondo wokuguqulwa okuluhlaza njenge-China Aluminium Industry (601600. SH) kanye ne-Nanshan Aluminium Industry (600219. SH) ekhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-3% uma kuqhathaniswa nomkhuba, kuyilapho izintengo zesitoko samandla amancane naphakathi nendawo ayengaphansi kwengcindezi ye-aluminium emabhizinisini aphinde asebenza.

Ukubala kwehle ukuya e-US China tariffs' amabhuzu '

Ihhovisi le-United States Trade Representative (USTR) liphinde laphinda namuhla ukuthi "izintela ezilinganayo" zemikhiqizo yezimboni zaseShayina zizoqala ukusebenza ngokusemthethweni ngo-Ephreli 10. Nakuba ama-ingots e-aluminium engekho ohlwini, izindleko zokuthekelisa zemikhiqizo ye-aluminium ezansi nomfula (njengezingxenye zezimoto nephepha le-aluminium) zingase zenyuke kakhulu. Kuhlanganiswe nokwehla okungalindelekile kwe-PMI yokukhiqiza yase-US kuya ku-49.5 ngoMashi (ngaphambilini engu-51.2), ukukhathazeka mayelana nokubukeka kwesidingo se-aluminium emhlabeni wonke kuye kwaqina emakethe.

Igeyimu yokunikezela nesidingo: ukugoqa kwempahla uma kuqhathaniswa nokuwa kwezindleko

I-Inventory ifinyelela eminyakeni emithathu ephansi, ukugcwaliswa kwesizini okuphezulu kuyaqala

Kusukela ngomhla ka-7 Ephreli, iqoqo lezenhlalo le-aluminiyamu ye-electrolytic e-China lehle laya kumathani angama-738000 (ukwehla kwamasonto onke ngamathani angama-27000), okuyizinga eliphansi kakhulu kusukela ngo-2022.Induku ye-aluminiumI-inventory yehle ngokuhambisanayo yaba amathani angu-223000, okubonisa ukululama okuqhubekayo kwesidingo samaphrofayili wokwakha, amafreyimu e-photovoltaic, neminye imikhiqizo.

Uhlangothi lwezindleko 'i-avalanche' yehlisa amanani e-aluminium

Ithintwe ukutholwa kwe-bauxite ethunyelwa ngaphandle evela e-Indonesia, intengo ye-alumina yehle ngo-8% ngesonto elilodwa, futhi ikhotheshini esifundeni sase-Henan yehle yaya ku-2850 yuan/ton. Izindleko eziphelele ze-aluminiyamu ye-electrolytic zehle zaba ngaphansi kuka-16600 yuan/ton, futhi inzuzo yokuncibilika yenyuka yaya ku-3200 yuan/ton. Ukwenza buthaka ukusekelwa kwezindleko nokwenyuka kokumelana nokwenyuka kwentengo ye-aluminium.

Ithrendi ehamba phambili: Ubani ogijima kuthrekhi eluhlaza? .

I-China Hongqiao (01378. HK) imemezele namuhla ukuthi izotshala imali ekwakhiweni komugqa wokuqala wezwe wokubonisa "zero carbon electrolytic aluminium" eYunnan, ngezinhlelo zokuqala ukukhiqiza ngo-2026. Intengo yesitoko ikhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-5% phakathi neseshini yokuhweba.

I-Yunlv Co., Ltd. (000807. SZ) imemezele ubambiswano ne-CATL ukuze kuthuthukiswe “ucwecwe lwe-aluminium yebhethri enekhabhoni ephansi” futhi kufakwe uchungechunge olusha lokuphakelwa kwezimoto zamandla. Isikhungo sibikezela ukuthi imali yaso evela ku-aluminium egaywe kabusha izodlula ama-40% ngo-2025.

Isakhiwo esikhulu samazwe ngamazwe: I-Alcoa imemezele namuhla ukuthi izovala izincibilikisi ezibizayo e-Australia futhi ishintshele emakethe ye-aluminium egaywe kabusha yaseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, isheshise umkhuba wokukhiqiza amandla omhlaba wonke ashintshele empumalanga.

Isibikezelo senani se-aluminium saleli sonto: izabelo zenqubomgomo ngokumelene nokukhathazeka kwesidingo esifihliwe

Izici ezinhle

I-inventory ephansi+isidingo sesizini esiphezulu: umjikelezo wokugcwalisa noma usekelo lokuhlinzwa kwesikhashana kwezintengo ze-aluminium.

I-Catalysis yenqubomgomo: Izindikimba zombono ezifana ne-aluminiyamu egaywe kabusha ne-aluminiyamu ngaphansi kwamalahle ziyabila, futhi izimali zingagxila esitokweni esihamba phambili.

Ukucindezelwa kwengcindezi engalungile

Ukuwohloka kwezindleko: Ukusebenza okubuthakathaka kwezintengo ze-alumina kungase kwenze buthaka ukusekela kwezindleko kwe-electrolytic aluminium.

Ingcuphe yesidingo sangaphandle: Ngemva kokuqaliswa kwezintela ngo-Ephreli 10, ama-oda okuthunyelwa kwe-aluminium okuthunyelwa ngaphandle angase abe ngaphansi kwengcindezi.