Namhlanje kugxilwe kwimarike ye-aluminium: abaqhubi ababini bemigaqo-nkqubo kunye neengxabano zorhwebo

Umgaqo-nkqubo wasekhaya 'wokuqala umpu' ugxothiwe

Ngomhla we-7 ka-Apreli, i-2025, iKomishoni yoPhuhliso lweSizwe kunye noHlaziyo kunye neSebe lezoShishino kunye neTeknoloji yoLwazi ngokudibeneyo babambe intlanganiso yokukhuthaza uphuhliso oluphezulu lweshishini le-aluminium, licacisa ukuphunyezwa kwe "Isicwangciso seMinyaka emithathu yoMsebenzi woTshintsho oluHlaza kwi-Aluminium Industry" ukususela namhlanje. Undoqo womgaqo-nkqubo ubandakanya:

Lawula ngokungqongqo ukongezwa kwe-electrolytic aluminium umthamo wokuvelisa: ngokomgaqo, iiprojekthi ze-aluminium zamandla ashushu azisayi kuphinda zivunywe, kwaye umthamo wemveliso ophelelwe lixesha weetoni ezi-3 zezigidi ziya kupheliswa ngo-2027.

I-"Doubling Plan for Recycled Aluminium" ijolise ekufezekiseni imveliso yeetoni ezingaphezulu kwe-13 yezigidi ze-aluminiyam esetyenzisiweyo ngo-2025, kunye nenkuthazo yerhafu ethambekele kumashishini e-aluminiyam asetyenzisiweyo.

Ukomeleza ukhuseleko lwezibonelelo: Ukuqaliswa kweeprojekthi zolingo zophuhliso lwezixhobo ze-aluminium phantsi kwamalahle kwiphondo laseHenan naseShanxi, ukukhuthaza izinga lokuzanelisa kwe-bauxite yasekhaya ukuya kuma-60%.

Ukuchatshazelwa yile nto, icandelo le-aluminium ye-A-share libonise ukuhlukana okuphawulekayo namhlanje, kunye ne-green transformation concept stocks ezifana ne-China Aluminium Industry (601600. SH) kunye ne-Nanshan Aluminium Industry (600219. SH) ekhuphuka ngaphezu kwe-3% ngokuchasene nomkhwa, ngelixa amaxabiso esitokhwe amancinci amancinci naphakathi ayephantsi koxinzelelo lwamashishini e-aluminium ephantsi koxinzelelo lwamashishini.

Ukubala ukuya e-US kwiirhafu zase-China 'ukuhlalisa iibhutsi'

I-Ofisi yoMmeli wezoRhwebo wase-United States (i-USTR) iphinde yaphinda namhlanje ukuba "iirhafu ezilinganayo" kwiimveliso zoshishino zaseTshayina ziya kusebenza ngokusemthethweni ngo-Ephreli 10. Nangona ii-ingots ze-aluminium zingekho kuluhlu, iindleko zokuthumela ngaphandle kweemveliso ze-aluminiyam ezisezantsi (ezifana neendawo zemoto kunye ne-aluminium foil) zinokunyuka ngokukhawuleza. Ukudibanisa nokuhla okungalindelekanga kwi-PMI yokuvelisa i-US ukuya kwi-49.5 ngo-Matshi (ngaphambili i-51.2), iinkxalabo malunga nokufunwa kwe-aluminium yehlabathi jikelele kuye kwaqina kwiimarike.

Umdlalo wokubonelela kunye nemfuno: ukuwa kwe-inventri xa kuthelekiswa nokuwa kweendleko

Uluhlu lweempahla lufike kwiminyaka emithathu ephantsi, ukuphinda kuphinde kuqale ixesha lexesha

Ukususela ngomhla we-7 ku-Epreli, i-inventory yentlalo ye-aluminium electrolytic e-China iye yawela kwiitoni ze-738000 (ukuncipha kweetoni ze-27000 ngeveki), inqanaba eliphantsi kakhulu ukususela kwi-2022.Intonga yeAluminiyamI-inventri inqabile ngokuhambelanayo ukuya kwiitoni ze-223000, ebonisa ukubuyiswa okuzinzileyo kwimfuno yokwakha iiprofayili, iifreyimu ze-photovoltaic, kunye nezinye iimveliso.

Icala leendleko 'i-avalanche' yehlisa amaxabiso e-aluminiyam

Ukuchaphazeleka ngokubuyiswa kwe-bauxite yokuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwe-Indonesia, ixabiso le-alumina lehla nge-8% ngeveki enye, kwaye isicatshulwa kwingingqi ye-Henan yawela kwi-2850 yuan / ton. Ixabiso elipheleleyo le-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic yehla ukuya ngaphantsi kwe-16600 yuan/ton, kwaye inzuzo yokunyibilikisa inyuke yaya kutsho kwi-3200 yuan/toni. Ukunciphisa inkxaso yeendleko kunye nokwanda kokuchasana nokunyuka kwexabiso le-aluminium.

Indlela ehamba phambili: Ngubani obaleka kumzila oluhlaza? .

I-China Hongqiao (01378. HK) ibhengeze namhlanje ukuba iya kutyala imali ekwakhiweni kwehlabathi lokuqala "zero carbon electrolytic aluminium" umgca wokubonisa eYunnan, kunye nezicwangciso zokuqalisa imveliso ngo-2026. Ixabiso lesitokhwe likhuphuke ngaphezu kwe-5% ngexesha leseshoni yokurhweba.

I-Yunlv Co., Ltd. (000807. SZ) ibhengeze intsebenziswano kunye ne-CATL ukuphuhlisa "i-foil ye-aluminium ye-carbon battery ephantsi" kwaye ifake ikhonkco elitsha lokubonelela ngesithuthi samandla. Iziko liqikelela ukuba ingeniso yalo evela kwi-aluminiyam ehlaziyiweyo iya kudlula i-40% ngo-2025.

Uyilo olukhulu lwamazwe ngamazwe: I-Alcoa ibhengeze namhlanje ukuba iza kuvala izinyibilikisi zexabiso eliphezulu e-Australia kwaye itshintshele kwimakethi ye-aluminiyam esekuMzantsi-mpuma ye-Asia, ikhawulezisa intsingiselo yomthamo wemveliso yehlabathi itshintshela ngasempuma.

Uqikelelo lwexabiso le-aluminiyam yale veki: izahlulo zomgaqo-nkqubo vs iinkxalabo zemfuno efihliweyo

Izinto ezintle

Uluhlu lwempahla ephantsi + imfuno yexesha lexesha eliphakamileyo: umjikelo wokuhlaziya okanye inkxaso yotyando lwexeshana elifutshane kumaxabiso e-aluminiyam.

I-Catalysis yomgaqo-nkqubo: Imixholo yokucinga efana ne-aluminiyam esetyenzisiweyo kunye ne-aluminiyam phantsi kwamalahle iyabila, kwaye iimali zinokujolisa kwi-stocks ehamba phambili.

Uxinzelelo olubi loxinzelelo

Ukuwa kweendleko: Ukusebenza okubuthathaka kwamaxabiso e-alumina kunokunciphisa inkxaso yeendleko ze-electrolytic aluminium.

Umngcipheko wemfuno yangaphandle: Emva kokuphunyezwa kweerhafu ngo-Ephreli 10th, imiyalelo yokuthunyelwa kwemveliso ye-aluminium ingaba phantsi koxinzelelo.