Nhasi tarisiro mumusika wealuminium: vaviri vatyairi vemitemo uye kutengeserana frictions

Mutemo wepamba wekuti 'starting gun' wadzingwa

Musi wa7 Kubvumbi 2025, National Development and Reform Commission neBazi reIndasitiri neRuzivo rweTekinoroji vakabatana musangano wekusimudzira kuvandudzwa kwemhando yepamusoro yeindasitiri yealuminium, vachijekesa kuitwa kwe "Makore Matatu Ekuita Chirongwa cheGreen Shanduko yeAluminium Indasitiri" kubva nhasi. Policy core inosanganisira:

Nyatsodzora kuwedzera kwe electrolytic aluminium kugadzirwa kwesimba: mumusimboti, magetsi emagetsi ealuminium mapurojekiti haachazotenderwa, uye kugadzirwa kwechinyakare kwematani emamiriyoni matatu kuchabviswa panosvika 2027.

Iyo "Doubling Plan yeRecycled Aluminium" ine chinangwa chekuwana kugadzirwa kwearuminiyamu yakadzokororwa inodarika miriyoni gumi nenhatu panosvika gore ra2025, nekukurudzira kwemutero kunorerekera kumabhizinesi akadzokororwa ealuminium.

Kusimbisa kuchengetedzwa kwezviwanikwa: Kutangisa mapurojekiti ekuvandudza zviwanikwa zvealuminium pasi pemarasha mumatunhu eHenan neShanxi, kusimudzira mwero wekuzvikwanira weBauxite yemumba kusvika 60%.

Yakakanganiswa neizvi, iyo A-share aluminium sector yakaratidza kusiyana kwakakosha nhasi, ine green transformation concept stocks seChina Aluminium Industry (601600. SH) uye Nanshan Aluminium Industry (600219. SH) ichikwira kupfuura 3% pakatarisana nemaitiro, nepo mitengo yemasheya yediki uye yepakati-saizi saizi yakashongedzwa nearuminiyamu mabhizinesi aive pasi pesimba realuminium.

Kuverengera kuUS China tariffs 'bhutsu kumhara'

Hofisi yeUnited States Trade Representative (USTR) yakadzokorora nhasi kuti "mitero yakaenzana" yezvigadzirwa zvemaindasitiri zveChinese ichaita zviri pamutemo musi wa10 Kubvumbi. Kunyange zvazvo aluminium ingots isiri pane rondedzero, mutengo wekutengesa kunze wezvigadzirwa zvearuminiyamu zvepasi (senge zvikamu zvemotokari uye aluminium foil) inogona kuwedzera zvakanyanya. Yakasanganiswa nekudonha kusingatarisirwi muUS yekugadzira PMI kusvika 49.5 muna Kurume (kare 51.2), kunetseka pamusoro pepasi rose aruminiyamu kudiwa maonero kwakawedzera mumusika.

Mutambo wekutengesa uye wekuda: kudonha kweiyo inventory vs. kudonha kwemutengo

Inventory inosvika makore matatu yakaderera, peak mwaka kuzadza kunotanga

Kubva muna Kubvumbi 7, huwandu hwemagariro earuminiyamu e electrolytic muChina hwadzika kusvika pa738000 matani (kuderera kwevhiki kwevhiki kwematani 27000), iyo yakaderera kubva 2022.Aluminium tsvimboInventory yakaramba yakadzikama kusvika ku223000 matani, zvichiratidza kudzoreredzwa kwakasimba mukudiwa kwekuvaka maprofile, photovoltaic mafuremu, uye zvimwe zvigadzirwa.

Mutengo wedivi 'avalanche' inokwevera pasi mitengo yealuminium

Yakakanganiswa nekudzorerwa kwebauxite kunze kwenyika kubva kuIndonesia, mutengo wealuminium wakaderera ne8% muvhiki imwe chete, uye quotation munharaunda yeHenan yakawira ku2850 yuan / ton. Mutengo wakakwana wearuminiyamu ye electrolytic wakadzikira kusvika pazasi pe16600 yuan/ton, uye purofiti yekunyungudutsa yakakwira kusvika pa3200 yuan/ton. Kuderera kwemutengo wekutsigira uye kuwedzera kuramba kune aruminiyamu mutengo unowedzera.

Inotungamira maitiro: Ndiani ari mujaho pane yakasvibira track? .

China Hongqiao (01378. HK) yakazivisa nhasi kuti ichaisa mari mukuvaka kwekutanga kwenyika "zero carbon electrolytic aluminium" mutsara wekuratidzira muYunnan, ine zvirongwa zvekutanga kugadzirwa muna 2026. Mutengo wekutengesa wakakwira nepamusoro pe5% panguva yekutengeserana.

Yunlv Co., Ltd. (000807. SZ) yakazivisa kubatana neCATL kugadzira "low-carbon battery aluminium foil" uye kupinda mumagetsi matsva ekupa motokari. Iyo sisitimu inofanotaura kuti mari yayo kubva kualuminum yakadzokororwa ichapfuura makumi mana muzana panosvika 2025.

Mamiriro makuru epasi rose: Alcoa yakazivisa nhasi kuti ichavhara zvinonyungudutsa zvinodhura zvakanyanya muAustralia uye ichienda kumusika weAruminiyamu wekuSoutheast Asia, ichiwedzera maitiro ekugadzirwa kwepasi rose kuchinjika kumabvazuva.

Vhiki rino aruminiyamu mutengo kufanotaura: policy dividends vs. zvakavanzika zvinodiwa zvinonetsa

Zvinhu zvakanaka

Yakaderera inventory + peak mwaka kudiwa: kudzoreredza kutenderera kana kutsigirwa kwekuvhiya kwenguva pfupi mumitengo yealuminium.

Policy catalysis: Madingindira akadai searuminiyamu yakadzokororwa uye aruminiyamu pasi pemarasha ari kuvirisa, uye mari inogona kutarisa kune inotungamira masheya.

Negative pressure kudzvanywa

Kudonha kwemitengo: Iko kusasimba kwemitengo yealuminium kunogona kuderedza mutengo werutsigiro we electrolytic aluminium.

Njodzi yekunze yekuda: Mushure mekushandiswa kwemitero muna Kubvumbi 10, aluminium zvigadzirwa zvekutengesa kunze zvinogona kunge zviri pasi pekumanikidzwa.