Marka digniinta korodhka toddobaadlaha ah ee 93000 tan ee LME (London Metal Exchange) shahaadooyinka alaabada aluminiumku ay la kulmeen hoos u dhigista Moody's ee qiimeynta madax-bannaanida Mareykanka, suuqa aluminiumka caalamiga ah ayaa la kulma ceejin dual ah oo ah "sahayda iyo baahida" iyo "dabeylo dhaqaale". Maajo 20-keedii, qiimaha aluminiumku wuxuu ku soo dhawaaday heerka taageerada muhiimka ah ee $ 2450 iyada oo la raacayo cadaadiska laba-geesoodka ah ee farsamada iyo asaasiga ah, suuquna wuxuu ahaa mid gees ah - marka heerkan qiimaha la jebiyo, daadka iibka ganacsiga ee barnaamijka ayaa laga yaabaa inuu si buuxda u qoro isbeddelka muddada gaaban.

Dhaqdhaqaaqa Alaabada: Bakhaarka Malaysian wuxuu noqday 'Bakhaarka rasaasta' ee madhan

Xogta agabka aluminiumka ee LME ee toddobaadkan waxa ay sababtay buuqa suuqa: bakhaarrada toddobaadlaha ah ee bakhaarrada diiwaangashan ee Malaysia waxa ay kor u kacday 92950 tan, bishii korodhay 127%, taas oo muujinaysa korodhka toddobaadlaha ah ee ugu badan tan iyo 2023.suuqa aluminium- Farqiga qiimaha ka soo horjeeda ee qandaraaska May/June (oo hadda ka sarreeya qiimaha hore) wuxuu kordhay $ 45 / ton, iyo kharashka kordhinta gaaban ayaa kor u kacay heerka ugu sarreeya ee sanadka.

Fasiraadda ganacsadaha: "Dhaqdhaqaaqyada aan caadiga ahayn ee bakhaarada Malaysia waxay muujin karaan muujinta alaabada qarsoon, oo ay weheliso qulqulka aluminiumka Shiinaha ee nidaamka LME, boosaska gaaban waxay isticmaalayaan cadaadiska kharashka kordhinta si ay ugu qasbaan boosaska dheer si ay u gooyaan khasaaraha."

Duufaanta qiimeynta: Moody's dhejinta 'waxay ka sii daraysaa argagaxa dareeraha ah

Moody's waxay hoos u dhigtay rajada laga qabo qiimeynta madax-banaanida Maraykanka "xasilloon" ilaa "negative", taas oo aan si toos ah u saameynin aasaaska suuqa aluminium, laakiin waxay kicisay kor u kaca muddada gaaban ee tusmada doolarka Maraykanka, taasoo cadaadis wadareed saaraysa badeecadaha lagu qiimeeyo doolarka Maraykanka. Tan ka sii muhiimsan, hoos u dhigista qiimeynta ayaa laga yaabaa inay kor u qaaddo wax-soo-saarka curaarta khasnadda Mareykanka, si aan toos ahayn kor loogu qaado kharashyada maalgelinta caalamiga ah, kaas oo si gaar ah khatar ugu ah warshadaha xooggan sida aluminiumka.

Falanqeeyayaasha ayaa ka digaya in iyadoo la filayo in la adkeeyo qulqulka, booska leverage ee CTA (la-taliyaha ganacsiga badeecada) laga yaabo inuu noqdo barta khatarta ugu weyn. ”

Doorsoomayaasha Shiinaha: Wax soo saar cusub oo sarreeya vs. jiilaalka guryaha

Wax-soo-saarka aluminiumka aasaasiga ah ee Shiinaha wuxuu gaadhay 3.65 milyan tan bishii Abriil, korodhka sannadlaha ah ee 6.7%, oo dhigay rikoor cusub oo taariikhi ah. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, xogta hantida maguurtada ah ee hoose waxay soo bandhigaysaa "cir labanlaab ah oo baraf iyo dab ah": laga bilaabo Jannaayo ilaa Abriil, degaanka cusub ee la bilaabay wuxuu hoos u dhacay 26.3% sannadkiiba, iyo heerka kobaca aagga la dhammeeyey ayaa hoos u dhacay ilaa 17%. Xilliga ugu sarreeya ee dhaqameed ee "dahab, qalin, iyo afar" ma aha xaalad wanaagsan.

Wax-is-hor-istaagga dalabaadka: Dhinac, dhinaca sahayda waxaa ka jira holac foornada qaraxa, dhanka kalena, waxaa jirta dabayl qabow oo dhanka dalabka ah. Suuqa aluminium ee Shiinaha ayaa ku xayiran wareegga xun ee "wax soo saar badan, dheeraad ah". Ganacsade aluminium ah oo dawladdu leedahay ayaa si badheedh ah u yidhi, “Hadda tan kasta oo aluminium ah oo la soo saaro, waxaa jira leben dheeraad ah oo alaabada ah.

Ciyaarta hay'adaha: Mercuria's "Shamiga Sare ee Aluminium ee Ruushka" ma la kulmay Waterloo?

Xanta suuqa ayaa soo jeedinaysa in istaraatijiyadda dheer ee shirkadda Mercuria ee badeecooyinka ee aadka u sharadka qaadista cunaqabataynta aluminium ee Ruushka ay wajaheyso imtixaan adag. Iyadoo la filayo fududaynta cunaqabataynta Maraykanka ee aluminiumka Ruushka iyo cadaadiska alaabada LME, hantideeda waxaa laga yaabaa inay la kulmaan khasaare ka badan $ 100 milyan.

Ganacsatadu waxay daaha ka rogeen: "Dhibaatada Mercuria waxay ka tarjumaysaa qiimaha suuqa ee khidmadaha juqraafiyeedka, iyadoo qiimihii aluminium uu ka soo laabtay 'qiimaha dagaalka' ilaa 'qiimaha xad-dhaafka ah'

Digniin Farsamo: Khadka nolosha iyo dhimashada $2450 ayaa wajahaya tijaabada ugu dambeysa

Ilaa xidhidhkii Maajo 20-keedii, qiimayaasha aluminiumka LME waxay ahaayeen $2465 halkii ton, hal tallaabo oo kaliya ayaa u jirta heerka taageerada muhiimka ah ee $2450. Falanqeeyayaasha farsamada ayaa ka digaya in haddii qiimuhu hoos u dhaco heerkan, ay kicin doonto khasaare weyn oo joojinta iibinta lacagaha CTA, iyo heerka bartilmaameedka xiga ayaa si toos ah u gaari kara $ 2300.

Duel Gaaban oo Dheer: Xerada caydhku waxay u isticmaashaa kor u kaca agabka iyo baahida daciifka ah sida waranka, halka xerada bullish ay diiradda saarto kharashaadka tamarta sare iyo baahida isbeddelka cagaaran sida gaashaan. Natiijada ciyaartan ayaa laga yaabaa inay go'aamiso jihada suuqa aluminium ee lixda bilood ee soo socota.

Gabagabo

Laga soo bilaabo "bamka alaabada" ee bakhaarka Malaysian ilaa duufaanta qiimeynta ee Washington, laga bilaabo "kor u kaca awoodda" ee dhirta aluminium ee Shiinaha ilaa "khamaarka aan taxadar lahayn" ee Mercuria, suuqa aluminiumku wuxuu taagan yahay isgoysyada aan la arkin tobaneeyo sano. Faa'iidada ama khasaaraha $ 2450 maaha kaliya inay khusayso xawaaraha ganacsiga barnaamijka, laakiin sidoo kale waxay tijaabisaa dib u soo kabashada warshadaha wax soo saarka caalamiga ah - dhamaadka duufaantan birta ah ayaa laga yaabaa inay hadda bilaabatay.