Xa isilumkiso sokunyuka kweveki ngeetoni ezingama-93000 kwi-LME (London Metal Exchange) izatifikethi ze-aluminiyam ze-aluminiyam zidibana nokuthotywa kukaMoody kumlinganiselo ozimeleyo wase-US, imarike ye-aluminiyam yehlabathi ifumana ukukrwitshwa kabini “kobonelelo kunye nemfuno” kunye “nesaqhwithi sezemali”. Ngomhla we-20 kaMeyi, amaxabiso e-aluminium afikelela kwinqanaba eliphambili lenkxaso ye-2450 yeedola phantsi koxinzelelo olubini lwezinto zobugcisa kunye nezinto ezisisiseko, kwaye imarike yayisemngciphekweni - emva kokuba le nqanaba lexabiso liphulwa, umkhukula wokuthengisa okucwangcisiweyo unokuphinda ubhale kwakhona ixesha elifutshane.

Intshukumo yoluhlu lweempahla: Indawo yokugcina impahla yaseMalaysia Iba 'yiNdawo yezixhobo zembumbulu'

Le veki ye-LME aluminiyam yedatha ye-aluminiyam yale veki ibangele isiphithiphithi semarike: uluhlu lwempahla lweveki lweendawo zokugcina ezibhalisiweyo eMalaysia zinyuke ngeetoni ezingama-92950, ​​ukunyuka kwenyanga ngenyanga nge-127%, okuphawula ukonyuka okukhulu kweveki ukususela ngo-2023.imarike aluminiyam- umehluko wexabiso eliphambeneyo lekhontrakthi kaMeyi / kaJuni (okwangoku iphezulu kunexabiso eliphambili) yandiswe ukuya kwi-$ 45 / toni, kunye neendleko zokwandiswa okufutshane zanyuka ukuya kwinqanaba eliphezulu lonyaka.

Utoliko lwabarhwebi: "Ukushukuma okungaqhelekanga kwiindawo zokugcina iimpahla zaseMalaysia kunokuthetha ukubonakaliswa koluhlu lwezinto ezifihliweyo, kudityaniswe nokungena kwee-ingots ze-aluminium zaseTshayina kwinkqubo ye-LME, izikhundla ezimfutshane zisebenzisa uxinzelelo lweendleko zokwandisa ukunyanzela izikhundla ezinde ukunciphisa ilahleko."

Ukulinganisa isaqhwithi: I-Moody's' ukuxhoma 'ikhulisa ukuxhalaba kokungabikho kwemali

I-Moody's yehlise imbonakalo ye-US yereyithi ezimeleyo ukusuka "ezinzile" ukuya "embi", engazange ichaphazele ngokuthe ngqo iziseko zemarike ye-aluminiyam, kodwa ibangele ukunyuka kwexesha elifutshane kwi-index ye-dollar yaseMelika, ibeka uxinzelelo oluhlangeneyo kwiimpahla zorhwebo ezenziwe ngeedola zaseMelika. Okona kubaluleke ngakumbi, ukuhla komgangatho kunokunyusa isivuno seebhondi ze-US Treasury bond, ukunyusa ngokungangqalanga iindleko zenkxaso-mali yehlabathi, nto leyo ebulala kakhulu kumashishini anemali enkulu afana ne-aluminiyam.

Abahlalutyi balumkisa ukuba phantsi kolindelo lokuqiniswa kwemali yokuhlawula amatyala, i-leverage position ye-CTA (umcebisi wezentengiso yempahla) inokuba yeyona ndawo yomngcipheko. ”

ezahlukeneyo Chinese: New imveliso ephezulu vs. real estate ebusika

Imveliso ye-aluminium yokuqala yaseChina ifikelele kwi-3.65 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-Epreli, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka we-6.7%, ukubeka irekhodi elitsha lembali. Nangona kunjalo, idatha ye-real estate esezantsi ibonisa "isibhakabhaka esiphindwe kabini somkhenkce nomlilo": ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya ku-Epreli, indawo yezindlu esanda kuqaliswa yehla nge-26.3% ngonyaka, kwaye izinga lokukhula kwendawo egqityiweyo liye lancipha ukuya kwi-17%. Incopho yesiqhelo yexesha "yegolide, isilivere, nesine" ayikho kwimeko entle.

Ukubonelela kunye nokuchasana kwemfuno: Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kukho idangatye lesithando somlilo kwicala lokubonelela, kwaye kwelinye icala, kukho umoya obandayo kwicala lemfuno. Imarike ye-aluminium yaseTshayina ibanjwe kumjikelezo ombi "wemveliso eninzi, i-surplus eninzi". Umrhwebi worhulumente we-aluminiyam uthethe ngokungafihlisiyo, “Ngoku ngetoni nganye ye-aluminiyam eveliswayo, kukho isitena esongezelelweyo kwi-inventri.

Umdlalo Weziko: Ngaba iMercuria “yeRussian Aluminiyam ePhezulu” yadibana neWaterloo?

Amahemuhemu entengiso acebisa ukuba iqhinga elide le-Mercuria yesigebenga sorhwebo ekubhejeni kakhulu ekuphakanyisweni kwesohlwayo se-aluminiyam yaseRussia sijongene novavanyo oluqatha. Ngokuncitshiswa okulindelweyo kwezohlwayo zase-US kwi-aluminiyam yaseRashiya kunye noxinzelelo kwi-inventri ye-LME, ukugcinwa kwayo kunokufumana ilahleko engaphezu kwe-100 yezigidi zeedola.

Abarhwebi babonisa: "Ingxaki yeMercuria ibonisa ukuhlawulwa kwakhona kweemalike ze-geopolitical premiums, kunye namaxabiso e-aluminiyam abuya 'kwintlawulo yemfazwe' ukuya 'kumaxabiso angaphezulu.

Isilumkiso sobugcisa: I-$ 2450 yobomi kunye nomgca wokufa ujongene novavanyo lokugqibela

Ukusukela ngoMeyi 20th, amaxabiso e-aluminium ye-LME ayekwi-2465 yeetoni, inyathelo elinye ukusuka kwinqanaba eliphambili lenkxaso ye-2450 yeedola. Abahlalutyi bezobugcisa balumkisa ukuba ukuba ixabiso liwela ngaphantsi kweli nqanaba, liya kubangela ilahleko enkulu yokuyeka ukuthengisa ngeemali ze-CTA, kwaye inqanaba elilandelayo elijoliswe kuyo lingafikelela ngokuthe ngqo kwi-2300 yeedola.

I-Long Short Duel: Inkampu ye-bearish isebenzisa ukunyuka kwe-inventory kunye nemfuno ebuthakathaka njengomkhonto, ngelixa inkampu ye-bullish igxile kwiindleko zamandla aphezulu kunye nemfuno yokuguqulwa okuluhlaza njengekhaka. Isiphumo salo mdlalo sinokumisela indlela yokuthengisa i-aluminium kwiinyanga ezintandathu ezizayo.

Ukuqukumbela

Ukususela "kwibhobho ye-inventory" kwindawo yokugcina impahla yaseMalaysia ukuya kwisivunguvungu sokulinganisa eWashington, ukusuka "kwi-capacity surge" yezityalo ze-aluminium zaseTshayina ukuya "kungaphumeleli kokungcakaza ngokungenankathalo" kweMercuria, imarike ye-aluminium imi kwindawo enqumlayo engabonakali kwiminyaka elishumi. Inzuzo okanye ilahleko ye-2450 yeedola ayibandakanyi nje isantya sokurhweba kwenkqubo, kodwa iphinda ivavanye ukubuyiswa kweshishini lemveliso yehlabathi - ukuphela kwesi siqhwithi sentsimbi sinokuthi siqale.