Kana yambiro yekukwira kwevhiki kwevhiki kwe93000 matani muLME (London Metal Exchange) aruminiyamu zvitupa zvakasangana nekudzikisira kwaMoody kweiyo US sovereign rating, musika wepasi rose wealuminium uri kusangana nekudzipwa kuviri kwe "kupa uye kudiwa" uye "dutu rezvemari". Musi waMay 20, mitengo yealuminium yakasvika kune yakakosha kutsigirwa kwe $ 2450 pasi pekudzvinyirirwa kweviri kwehutano uye zvinhu zvinokosha, uye misika yakanga iri pamucheto - kana iyi nhanho yemutengo yaputsika, mafashamo ekutengesa kwakarongwa kwekutengesa kunogona kunyora zvachose chimiro chenguva pfupi.

Inventory Movement: Malaysian Warehouse Inova Isina 'Ammunition Depot'

Vhiki rino LME aluminium inventory data yakakonzera mheremhere yemusika: kuwanikwa kwevhiki nevhiki kwematura akanyoreswa muMalaysia kwakawedzera ne92950 matani, mwedzi pamwedzi kuwedzera kwe127%, zvichiratidza kuwedzera kukuru kwevhiki kubva muna 2023.aluminium market- musiyano wemutengo wakasiyana wechibvumirano chaMay/June (iyo parizvino yakakwira kupfuura mutengo wemberi) yakawedzera kusvika kumadhora makumi mana neshanu / toni, uye mutengo wekuwedzera kwenguva pfupi wakakwira kusvika pakakwirira pegore.

Kududzirwa kwemutengesi: "Mafambiro asina kujairika mumatura eMalaysia anogona kureva kuratidzwa kwezvakavanzwa, zvakasanganiswa nekuwanda kweChinese aluminium ingots muLME system, zvinzvimbo zvipfupi zviri kushandisa kudzvanywa kwemitengo yekuwedzera kumanikidza nzvimbo refu kuderedza kurasikirwa."

Kuyera dutu: Moody's' kusungirira kumusoro 'kunowedzera kutya kwemvura

Moody's akadzikisa maonero ehutongi hweAmerica kubva pa "stable" kuenda "negative", izvo zvisina kukanganisa zvakananga zvakakosha zvemusika wealuminium, asi zvakakonzera kukwira kwenguva pfupi kwemadhora ekuAmerica, kuisa kumanikidziro pamwe chete kune zvigadzirwa zvemadhora ekuAmerica. Zvinotonyanya kukosha ndezvokuti, kudzikisira kwechiyero kunogona kukwidza goho reUS treasury bond bond, zvichikwidza zvisina kunanga mari dzepasi rose, izvo zvinonyanya kuuraya maindasitiri ane mari yakawanda sealuminium.

Vanoongorora vanoyambira kuti pasi pekutarisira kuomeswa kwemari, iyo yekuwedzera chinzvimbo cheCTA (commodity trading advisor) mari inogona kuve iyo yakanyanya njodzi. ”

Chinese variables: New high production vs. real estate yechando

Kugadzirwa kwealuminium kwekutanga kweChina kwakasvika 3.65 miriyoni matani muna Kubvumbi, gore-pa-gore kuwedzera kwe6.7%, ichiisa nhoroondo nyowani. Zvisinei, pasi pemvura yezvivakwa data inopa "denga rakapetwa rechando nemoto": kubva munaNdira kusvika Kubvumbi, nzvimbo ichangobva kutanga yeimba yakaderera ne 26.3% gore negore, uye chiyero chekukura kwenzvimbo yakapedzwa yakaderera kusvika ku17%. Mwaka wepamusoro wechinyakare we "goridhe, sirivheri, uye ina" hausi muchimiro chakanaka.

Kutengesa uye kuda kupokana: Kune rumwe rutivi, kune kuputika kwevira remoto padivi rekupa, uye kune rimwe divi, kune mhepo inotonhora padivi rekuda. Musika weChinese wealuminium wakavharirwa mukutenderera kwakashata kwe "kuwedzera kugadzirwa, kwakawanda kusara". Mumwe mutengesi wealuminium wehurumende akataura pachena, "Iye zvino patani yega yega yealuminum inogadzirwa, pane chimwe chidhinha chekuwedzera.

Institutional Game: Ko Mercuria "Russian Aluminium High Stake" yakasangana neWaterloo?

Runyerekupe rwemusika rwunoratidza kuti zano rakareba reMercuria rekubheja zvakanyanya pakusimudza zvirango zvealuminium yeRussia rakatarisana nemuyedzo wakakomba. Nekurerutsirwa kuri kutarisirwa kwezvirango zveUS paaluminium yeRussia uye kudzvanywa kweLME hesiti, kubata kwayo kunogona kurasikirwa kunodarika zana remamiriyoni emadhora.

Vatengesi vanoratidza kuti: "Dambudziko reMercuria rinoratidza kudzoreredzwa kwemusika kwemitengo yezvematongerwo enyika, nemitengo yealuminium inodzoka kubva ku'mari yehondo' kuenda ku' mitengo yakawandisa '.

Yambiro yehunyanzvi: Iyo $2450 yehupenyu nerufu mutsara wakatarisana nemuyedzo wekupedzisira

Kubva pakupera kwaChivabvu 20, mitengo yealuminium yeLME yaive pamadhora mazana maviri nemakumi mana neshanu patani, nhanho imwe chete kubva padanho rakakosha remadhora mazana maviri nemakumi mashanu. Vaongorori vehunyanzvi vanoyambira kuti kana mutengo ukawira pasi peiyi nhanho, zvinokonzeresa hukuru hwekumira kurasikirwa nekutengesa nemari yeCTA, uye iyo inotevera nhanho inogona kusvika yakananga $2300.

Long Short Duel: Iyo musasa webearish unoshandisa surge in inventory uye kushaya simba kudiwa sepfumo, nepo musasa webullish unotarisa pamutengo wesimba wakakwira uye girinhi shanduko inodiwa senhoo. Mhedzisiro yemutambo uyu inogona kutara kutungamira kwemusika wealuminium mumwedzi mitanhatu inotevera.

Mhedziso

Kubva pa "inventory bhomba" muMalaysian warehouse kusvika kune rating dutu muWashington, kubva "kukwira simba" kweChinese aluminium plant kusvika kune "reckless gamble failure" yeMercuria, misika yealuminium yakamira pamharadzano yemigwagwa isingaonekwi mumakore gumi. Kuwana kana kurasikirwa kwe $ 2450 hakungobatanidzi kukurumidza kwekutengeserana kwepurogiramu, asiwo kunoedza kudzorerwa kwekambani yepasi rose yekugadzira - kuguma kweiyi dutu resimbi inogona kunge ichangotanga.